BGA Extra: Browns at Jets

Welcome to BGA Extra, where I draw a line under the previous weekend’s game by responding to your questions from BGA during the week. After the jump, I respond to your questions about the win over the Browns. If you would like your questions answered in future, remember to read BGA each week and leave your question in the comments section.

NYCPEinGermany
I couldn’t believe the cushion Cro was giving on the browns 3rd offensive play of the game. It was 3rd and 3 (I believe) and cro was playing what – 12 yards off? If Campbell completes an easy pass that’s a gimme first down. I get playing safe and bend, don’t break, but still, is the plan really to play so soft in these scenarios?

In Cromartie’s defense, that was a blown coverage and not necessarily by him. Before the snap, Dawan Landry – the safety on that side – was communicating with Josh Bush, the other deep safety, as to where they should each be. Landry then dropped to the middle of the field at the snap and ended up double covering the slot tight end on the other side, who Antonio Allen had jammed and the line and had covered. This left Josh Cooper open for the easy pitch and catch (which was missed), as Cromartie dropped off. After the snap, Cromartie was pointing and remonstrating with Landry, clearly indicating that he was expecting Landry to be responsible for that area.

NYCPEinGermany
Is Marv Albert going senile? I can’t believe how many outright wrong things he was saying. I thought the whole on-air performance was terrible – between Albert”s constant mistakes, he and Gannon babbling incessantly – often about things other than what just happened – and some bad camerawork, it was a mess.

No. He went senile ages ago.

chrisr
How have Geno Smith’s numbers compared to great rookie quarterback numbers? Are there any particular statistics that you weigh more then other when evaluating young quarterbacks?

It’s always difficult to compare top level quarterbacks based on their rookie numbers. I could find some quarterbacks with (ballpark) similar numbers in their first season (Both Mannings, Elway) that went on to be good, but just as many (if not more) with similar numbers in their first year that did not (Nagle, Sanchez, Freeman). Similarly, I could find those with better numbers as a rookie that did and did not turn out to be really good. Vince Young, Sam Bradford and Robert Griffin III are all former rookie of the year winners that cannot (yet?) be considered among the game’s elite. In fact, Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan and (maybe, although the jury might still be out on this) Cam Newton are the only rookie of the year winners since 1970 you could say that about, so a fast start is not always the best route to elite status.

I wouldn’t look at one statistic in isolation, but I do think it’s important to see ongoing progress, both from a numbers standpoint but also in terms of how confident and in control they look.

DarrolRayFanClub
What has Geno’s adjusted accuracy been week to week? The numbers, such as 55% completion for the year, or 20-36 (55%) yesterday, don’t always tell the story. Drops in some recent games and his willingness to throw the ball away are ‘incompletions’ that are actually positives for him. Especially in situations like when he throws a ball intentionally (and calmly) at Kerley’s feet on 2nd and 12 and then picks up the first down on the next play.

Note: Adjusted accuracy is a PFF metric that excludes dropped passes, deliberate throw-aways and things like that from the completion percentage calculation. If a quarterback was around 55% in terms of completion percentage all year, but they threw the ball away more often in the second half of the year (as seems to have been the case with Smith in recent weeks) or if they had more balls dropped, then their accuracy percentage would be higher.

Smith is dead last out of the 26 qualifying quarterbacks in this category, at 67.2%, but have there been signs of improvement? There certainly have, as he’s been over 72% in two of the last three weeks and 63% in the other. Prior to that he hadn’t surpassed 60% since before the bye week. He threw the ball away four times on Sunday, more than his average of less than twice per game.

a57se
In the WCO, timing routes are the norm and Geno does not do well on those yet. Could you tell us how many snaps Geno took under center on passing plays?

Four on Sunday, all of which were incompletions

levi
I noticed Geno staring down WR’s but I did see him “look off” the safety a couple times too. Does this seem to be something he is improving on?

Definitely. Several of his bigger completions came after he had scanned the field rather than just staring down one target. In fact, if you watch those plays in isolation, he looks really good. Much better footwork, good reads and a confident delivery. The most clear-cut example of him looking someone off was actually a linebacker rather than a safety, when he scanned the field and then checked down late to Winslow on the penultimate play of the first half. D’Qwell Jackson literally took a step in the other direction before he threw the pass and that clearly contributed to Winslow almost being able to get in the end zone.

djf1 (aka Disgruntled Jets Fan)
Lately we seem to be breaking longer runs – is this more of a function of better blocking, or better reads by the backs? (I know, it’s probably both.)

Of course it is both. However, as a general rule – and I would say that this applies to most of what the Jets have been doing – most long runs in the NFL come from a runner breaking a tackle to get in the open field, because the success or failure of so many running plays at this level comes down to one man either bringing down or at least slowing up the ball carrier in the hole, on the edge or in the open field. The Powell run just before half time was mostly good blocking, but it took a broken tackle to turn it from a 10-yarder into a 40-yarder. Ivory’s two runs had more to do with good reads on his part, with again second level tackle-breaking.

djf1 (aka Disgruntled Jets Fan)
If Goodson gets healthy, do they go with a 3 RB core next year? Will each RB remain effective with reduced snaps, or does someone like Ivory need semi-consistent playing time?

If I had to predict, I’d expect a three man rotation, but with Ivory’s reps more or less where they have been since the bye week and it will be Powell’s reps that suffer. Don’t rule out John Griffin though. I expect him back in camp and in the mix for playing time next summer.

Iain Bartholomew
Who do I contact to complain about the horrendous Christmas puns?

I apologize for that. It was done in the spirit of a garish Christmas-themed sweater and the fact they got more and more ridiculous was quite deliberate. Just wait til you see the rejected headlines:

1. God Rex Ye Merry Gentlemen
2. Oh, Cumberland All Ye Faithful
3. Deck the Halls with Boughs of Holley Mangold’s Brother
4. Santonio Claus is Coming to Town
5. Under the Missile-Cro
6. Yule Hogg
7. It’ll be Colon-ly this Christmas
8. Come, they told me, Purdum pa pum pum
9. Hakim-ing of a White Christmas
10. Man-gold, Frankincense and Myrrh.

Vinny Cammarato
Would anyone consider trading Ellis? He seems to be a legit NT but we have Harrison and a bunch of other great D lineman. I wonder what his value would be.

I think the Jets have been blessed to have both Harrison and Ellis available for all 16 games (although Ellis was slowed by a back injury earlier in the year and only played one snap against the Patriots). As we know from 2008-2010 where Kris Jenkins had two season ending injuries in two of the seasons and recurrent back problems in the other one, you can’t rely on that. It was the same thing with Sione Po’uha who was injured throughout 2012 and broke down right at the end of the season in 2010. If the Jets had a Kenrick Ellis-level player to play in his place, they might have reached the Super Bowl that year.

hobiel
Jets got called for an off-side when they got back on-side without making contact before the snap. The Browns OL flinched. I get the call if the flinch were immediate to the defensive jump, but it looked like is was after the DL retreated. How does that rule work?

If the offense false-starts but there’s someone in the neutral zone at the time, the penalty goes against the defense because their transgression came first. This does open up the possibility of the offense false-starting deliberately to draw the flag, but that does prevent them from potentially getting a “free play”. The best thing the defense can do is to make sure they never enter the neutral zone before the snap, although if they do get back in time, the offense would be penalized. Clearly the officials felt a defensive player was still in the neutral zone at the time of the flinch in your example.

Brendan
That [roughing the passer penalty on Richardson] was the worst thing I’ve possibly ever seen. JJ Watt hit Peyton Manning nearly a full second after he released the ball yesterday and there was no call. Richardson hits Campbell a nanosecond after the release and it’s a flag?

Well, at least they didn’t fine him $15,000. Oh, wait. They did. His response, via twitter: “Just read my fine letter.. 15k because I landed on the QB with my full body lbs…it says I’m suppose to cradle him with my arms. OKAY”

a57se
It seemed like when Richardson went out, the Browns started having success running the ball as they didn’t do much up to that point. Would you please break down the difference in rushing yards by the Browns with and without Sheldon in the game?

There were four running plays with him not in the game, netting 18 yards (one of these was a five yard touchdown and only one went for less than four yards). What’s perhaps more interesting is that on the nine pass plays with Richardson out, the Browns were 0-for-6 with an interception, two sacks and a seven yard gain on a scramble. Campbell’s overall rating was less than 50, but it was over 70 when Campbell (who was only sacked one other time) had to deal with Richardson on the field.

a57se
There was one play where it looked like the offense jumped but then the officials got together and after taking their sweet time, ruled the Jets offsides. Have you noticed anything the opposing offense are doing to try and draw the Jets offsides?

Yes, teams have been changing up their snap counts and putting in hard counts all year to exploit the over-aggressiveness of the linemen and this is an effective way of slowing them down. We’ve been specifically told that by one of the players.

psi1
Does PFF have the Jets ranking on how long the Opposing QBs have to throw the ball. Despite their apparent good sack numbers, it seems to the naked eye that they typically take a while to actually sack the QB.

They don’t compile this for defenses, but we can look at opposing quarterback’s “Time in Pocket” numbers week by week and then compare this with how long it takes Geno Smith (4.3 seconds) to get sacked on average to get some kind of feel for it. In their 15 games, the “Time to Sack” for the Jets’ opposing quarterback has been more than that seven times and less than that eight times.

I’d caution that this stat can be misleading because if a QB is sacked after three seconds, that doesn’t necessarily mean the rush is better when a QB is pressured after two seconds and sacked after four but that probably puts them somewhere near the middle of the pack.

a57se
Did the rules change about the Kick-off being a live ball? I’ve seen refs blowing their whistles for touchbacks BEFORE the ball leaves the playing field and without being touched by the receiving team. On one kick off to the Jets yesterday Reynaud was actually running to the bench when the ball hit 7 yards into the end zone and you can see the ref signalling for a touchback before the ball bounced out of bounds!

No, the rules didn’t change. I rewatched the four kickoffs that the Browns had and what you described didn’t happen on any of them! Maybe you got confused with a different game or your eyes were playing tricks on you?

1969JAN12th
On TJB I’ve read a lot of comments about whether we should draft a WR,QB, TE, OL, safety…or maybe to sign a veteran QB (Cutler ?, Cousins ?) Since we have a limited amount of draft picks and the veteran QBs like Cousins or Cutler (these probably won’t even be available) will cost us a lot of money and/or draft pick; where do you put the priority for the use of the money & draft picks?

Which QB is realistic to sign if we go the veteran route? What number draft pick should we use for a QB whether veteran or draft-able?…or should we not even waste a draft pick on a veteran QB?

If the right quarterback is available for a pick, then you make that move. Of course, the main difficulty comes in identifying who is the right guy and for all we know, maybe the Jets believe that guy to be Geno Smith. I wouldn’t rule out using picks (and for what it’s worth they are likely to have 12, although four of those can’t be traded) to get a franchise quarterback. That has to be the top priority.

Carlos Panameno
Are you as scared as I am that Rex will get fired and go and get hired by a team like the Lions and win or get close to a Super Bowl and leaving Jets nation looking foolish and wondering WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN? That would make me very SAD.

Rex will take his defense with him and is going to have success. Whether that’s because he’ll be in a better situation overall than he would be if he stayed here will be up for debate, but he’s won a Super Bowl before (as a Defensive Line coach) and I’d be very surprised if he never gets close again as a Defensive Coordinator. He’s never going to be the Defensive Coordinator here though and if the front office doesn’t believe he can win one as a Head Coach, he’ll be gone. Yes, it would be sad and to a degree is scary. I’d root for him in that situation though, as long as it wasn’t against the Jets or with one of our main rivals.

juunit
What kind of cookie do you believe is Santa’s favorite?

A double-stuffed Ore-Ho-Ho-Ho!

Ugh, that was terrible. Let’s draw a line under Christmas too.

>>>

Happy Holidays, everyone! Thank you for your great questions and comments. I’ll be back to preview the Dolphins game on Sunday morning.




6 comments
AOM
AOM

I keep thinking he'll be the DC of the Bears next season, following in his father's footsteps. 

djf1
djf1

"Cradle the QC with his arms?"


You've got to be frelling kidding me.

C.B.Cooper
C.B.Cooper

I personally liked the Xmas puns. I was singing "Jets not roasted by an open flyer" all Christmas!

levi
levi

Thanks Bent. I was pretty sure Geno was getting better at "looking off" and progressing through his reads but its nice to hear you say "definitely".  Its encouraging because its a couple thing Sanchez never seemed to grasp. 


Those reject puns are all keepers in my book.

a57se
a57se

@djf1 

  Sounds like the NFL wants to become more like Professional Wrestling.