BGA Extra: Jets at Dolphins

Welcome to BGA Extra, where I draw a line under the previous weekend’s game by responding to your questions from BGA during the week. After the jump, I respond to your questions about the win over the Dolphins. If you would like your questions answered in future, remember to read BGA each week and leave your question in the comments section.

Iain Bartholomew
On the play Snacks and Ellis blocked for Sheldon it seemed they opened a hole to the right of where he ran. Do you think he was deliberately not running behind them to minimize the risk of rolling up on one of them or other injury scenarios?

I actually think he made a bad read. If he went right, it would have been an easy touchdown. Having said that, both Harrison and Ellis allowed their man to get leverage off their left shoulder so maybe that was their mistake and he was supposed to go left the whole time.

niel
Total speculation, but I got the impression Geno was expecting Nelson to break more towards the middle of the endzone than the front of it [on the throw to the end zone].

Doesn’t look like it from the film. Geno’s stance indicates he was always looking outside and Nelson exectuted the post-corner route well (unless I’m looking at a different play).

david from haifa
With 13 draft picks, who are your projected 13 the Jets cut from the roster to make room? Three are easy but who are the other ten? Would Ricky Sapp have been on this list?

It isn’t that cut and dried because the Jets obviously have several guys out of contract, but also have several guys who ended up the year on injured reserve that figure to be back on the active roster next season. Honestly, as you try and compile a list of the players that probably won’t be back, it’s difficult to get to 10, a surefire sign that the roster depth isn’t as bad as some people think.

I don’t think Ducasse or Reynaud will be back and guys like Salas, Troy Davis, Chris Pantale and Saalim Hakim have their work cut out for them. In addition, we don’t really know what we have in Ijalana, Campbell or Aboushi. Or, for that matter, Schlauderaff. Then you have the obvious cap casualties Sanchez, Holmes and Cromartie and a decision on Harris (who I expect to return). Guys like Cribbs, Winslow, Colon, Garrard and Reed who are not under contract and perhaps weren’t expected back have all had some indications that they might want to return. I really, really want them to bring back Leger Douzable, but he’s going to test free agency and the special teamers Bellore and Lankster might too, but again I hope not. Austin Howard is presumably their biggest free agency priority.

As for Ricky Sapp, he’s a guy that I still feel (and there are players, coaches and people in the front office who agree with me) could have developed into a key contributor if given significant playing time. Obviously it depends who they draft, but even if Antwan Barnes and Calvin Pace are both back next year, there’s still room for a guy like him in a situational rusher role. However, he’s gone now, so that perhaps becomes a need.

grtfuljet
Any word on how our 3 automatic inactive have fared in practice? Do we have line depth for next year or are they just overmatched?

All we have to go on is this, from this week’s presser:

I certainly haven’t given up hope that they could develop into NFL-caliber players. Aboushi struggled in preseason, but he was raw technically (which hopefully is fixable) and did show some improvement over the four games. I actually quite liked what I saw from Campbell and am eager to see how he’s developed.

James Plath
Your thoughts on rookie Revis v. rookie Milliner? Stats are very comparable; rookie Revis had 87T, 17PD, and 3INT; Milliner had 56T, 17PD, and 3INT. I don’t really recall when Revis became _Revis_, and what the scuttle was coming out of his rookie year.

This is something I’m planning to expand upon in a bigger piece during the offseason, but you’ll be shocked by Revis’ coverage numbers from 2007, which for much of that season were among the worst in the league. Now, I wasn’t doing BGA’s back then, but I can’t recall feeling he was overmatched the way Milliner seemed to be at times and the way Justin Miller was from the start (and never improved). Maybe I’m romanticizing it a bit, but Revis always had a polish to his game where you knew he was eventually going to be good. Milliner didn’t have that for most of the year, but shows some signs down the stretch.

Revis certainly improved over the second half in similar fashion to Milliner (although he was never benched to my recollection). The Jets were a poor team though (4-12), so perhaps Revis wasn’t picked on quite as much because it was even easier to pick on some of that team’s other weaknesses.

djf1
I have moderate optimism for Geno, but yesterday I noticed a recurrence of two tendencies that I’m not a huge fan of:

1) Low passes, when inevitably end up with the receiver on the ground and no chance to advance. Is he just trying to be safe and minimize the chance of a pick? (Even though one of Dee’s picks was low, though it was a psedo-trap) This is mainly on the shorter throws, where we really need those YAC.

2) The few plays a game where Geno sprints back like 10 yards right after the snap. It puts him in a really difficult position to produce a gain – a checkdown or a screen here still risks a significant loss, and I end up just hoping for a throwaway/incompletion. Is this in the actual play design?

I’ve noticed both of these things and can’t really comment whether they’re part of the design or just Smith’s personal preference. Most likely he’s still short arming some of his throws to some extent and perhaps he gets spooked by the threat of pressure and tries to buy himself some extra time, but on the whole if he’s being over-cautious and that’s contributed to him making fewer mistakes, then that’s good.

The throw on Milliner interception wasn’t actually that low.

r_in_ct
Any thoughts on what they do for a kick returner next year? Goodson?

Cribbs apparently wants to return and I thought he did a good job, but they might end up drafting someone who could contribute in that area. There’s several candidates on the team, but none of them world beaters. This was the first Jets season without a kick return touchdown since 2001, when Craig Yeast was the primary return man.

rkymtnjet
Request: A GIF or screenshot of the Defensive Line Full House Formation!

Go on then, as it’s Christmas…

BDarc23
I don’t see how the Jets can take the risk that Cromartie will round back into #1 form. Are there any top CBs expected to be available that can be considered an upgrade?

I’ve never been a big Aqib Talib fan, but he plays a ton of press coverage at the line and therefore might be the best fit that’s out there if he hits the open market. Other names include Alterraun Verner and Brent Grimes. Of the two, I prefer Grimes because Verner played right cornerback all season whereas Grimes moved about a lot more.

That’s the top end of the market though and who knows if any of them will even be available. To be an upgrade over Cromartie, who struggled all year, you don’t need to be that good. However, Cromartie himself should be a lot better next year if he sorts his hip issue out.

a57se
Miami had their most success on the ground AFTER the Jets subbed in their nickel package in yesterdays game from what is saw, did you notice that as well?

Yes. Lamar Miller was 9 for 57 with the nickel package on the field and 8 for 16 otherwise.

a57se
Every time I focused on it, the Dolphins had 6 guys in pass protection. Could you break down the numbers used by them in pass protection and the results for each scenario?

On plays where they left at least one extra guy in (there were three where they left two in), Tannehill was 7-for-13 with 103 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions.

a57se
There was one play on offense where one of the Jets pass protectors got knocked backwards and literally looked like he was on roller skates, would you know who this was? The TV coverage switched to a Steelers update instead of showing a replay.

Cumberland (against Wake).

a57se
Do you think Landry should be back? I think if we bring Reed back we don’t need Landry.

They’ve got Landry under contract for another year at a reasonable amount, so they should bring him back to camp and see how it goes. If one of the youngsters emerges and makes Landry (or even Reed) expendable, then maybe they can get a pick for one of them. I thought Dawan was much better value for money than his brother, who earns more per season than Landry will over the two years.

a57se
Do you think it is a good idea for your QB to run the ball 10 times a game?

This all depends on context. Smith carried the ball 10 times in each of their last two games, both of which were wins. I certainly don’t think they should plan for him to do that, but in isolation most of those runs were good decisions on his part. As teams wise up to this, they’ll have to respect the threat of a run and this will hopefully loosen up the coverage for him to complete more throws. He’s not going to carry 160 times in a season, but if he ever carries 10 times in any one game because he’s taking what the defense gives him, then I’m okay with that.

>>>

Thank you for your questions. Stay tuned for plenty more BGA articles throughout the offseason.




49 comments
jaym
jaym

NFL Defensive Rookie of Month for December: @nyjets CB Dee Milliner.

jaym
jaym

Bears sign Jay Cutler to seven-year contract

1969JAN12th
1969JAN12th

In reference to  James Plath's question about rookie Milliner vs. rookie Revis, I recall that Revis over the years said that once he had the upcoming season schedule he (Revis) would break down  film looking at the WRs "tells". I always thought that his doing that was a real key for him in being able to shut down certain WRs. Besides Milliner's coming late to camp and his injuries, do you think that this also was a factor in Dee's slow start ? (not being able to have a whole off-season to examine each WR.)

Or is it possible that Dee uses his natural ability, instincts,  and athleticism and doesn't have the same propensity to pour over film?

karlhungus
karlhungus

Anyone else think Revis is going to be waived by the Bucs now? Lovie plays the Tampa 2, 16m for a zone CB is insane.....


I don't say to imply he's coming back here, I think that ship has sailed, although I bet Nike would like to have him back in NY, but now that 3rd goes to a 4th....not happy about that...




djf1
djf1

It didn't quite work, but the gif makes me think the 1000 pound backfield has promise. 

jaym
jaym

Late question how many times did Richardson drop into coverage?

Brendan
Brendan

@jaym Thank God. Let the Hay Cutler talk cease...forever. 

Bent
Bent

@1969JAN12th His slow start was something we were anticipating anyway because cornerbacks that have been coached by Nick Saban ALWAYS start slowly.  He teaches some slightly different techniques, so it takes a bit of time to adjust.

Brendan
Brendan

@karlhungus If not Lovie, their new GM will definitely want to rid himself of that albatross. $16m for a CB on a team that won four games? I just can't see that happening. 

jaym
jaym

@karlhungus 

You think the Lovie Smith hiring screws up the Revis trade?

Brendan
Brendan

@jaym 35 coverage snaps this season, 3 on Sunday. 

BDarc23
BDarc23

He is basically Jeff George....great arm talent that even thinks they can harness

a57se
a57se

@Brendan

Haha and now start the incessant McCown talk.

BDarc23
BDarc23

Is it just Saban? I think the previous 2 top drafted CBs (Patrick Peterson and Morris Claiborne) struggled quite a bit as well in their rookie years.

BDarc23
BDarc23

I was assuming that Lovie was the GM too... odd to hire a coach prior to the GM

C.B.Cooper
C.B.Cooper

@jaym @karlhungus I think they will definitely look at cutting him, but they will try to sign him to long term deal with a lower cap number first. This would save our third round pick. I don't see any way that he's cut and signs with the jets again. 

Pat d
Pat d

Sanchez back up Geno? Yeah right.

Pat d
Pat d

Jets need to draft a QB

a57se
a57se

@jaym@BDarc23 

Kirk Cousins is NOT a Free Agent.....

Mallett? Is he even in the NFL still?

BDarc23
BDarc23

IMO- McCown is another Flynn, Kolb. Vick might be pretty good but the controversy is not worth it. Schaub- no thanks. Cousins- Didin't look good the last 2 games- no thanks. Mallett- Obviously not getting him and totally unknown. Sanchez- Maybe if he signed for like 2 mill to be the backup but also not happening.

jaym
jaym

@BDarc23

@JasonLaCanfora

With Cutler signed, QB trade/free agent market will be slim: McCown, Vick, Schaub, Cousins, Mallett, Sanchez, etc

Vincent Winner
Vincent Winner

@a57se @Brendan At least a McCown signing wouldn't break the bank.  Cutler has talent but is all over the place, and is flat out not worth the money.  McCown would be reasonable competition for Geno at a decent price - if it happens I won't have any undue glee or outrage.

a57se
a57se

@BDarc23 

Haha.....I thought Woody Johnson was the only Owner who would force a GM to accept his HC!!

I think Jerry Angelo is gonna end up TB's GM in which case, lovie would have been his choice anyway.

Unless Brendans' guy ends up GM, which is basically the same scenario...someone who would have hired Lovie.

Brendan
Brendan

@BDarc23 If he has roster control, no way is he going to do that. He doesn't run press man coverage that Revis rules all with. 


Edit: It seems like they've lined up the player personnel director for the Chiefs to be the GM, who is a long-time friend of Lovie's from their days in Chicago (Chris Ballard). 

Pat d
Pat d

Agree Revis will not consider coming back to the Jets. But there are a lot of teams that would be better for Revis than the Jets. If he takes less money he will go to a Super Bowl contender.

SackDance99
SackDance99

@NYCPEinGermany@Brendan@BeardedBeardThe only flaw in this logic is that with any other team and in any other market, Revis is just another good player, but not one in a glory position.  On the Jets, in Rex's defense, he's "Revis Island" and a perpetual candidate for DPOY.  That has to help with endorsements.

NYCPEinGermany
NYCPEinGermany

@BDarc23 

I suppose that makes sense since it's all about immediate $ for Revis. He got his money but left the guy who is the best HC out there for him and ended up playing a lot of zone on a team that won 4 games. 


Stay in NY and probably make a lot more in endorsement deals, play for a HC that will use you in the best way possible and likely win more games. 


I just see Revis as very selfish, which to me often clouds common sense.

BDarc23
BDarc23

Just curious...why do you say he doesn't have a great history of common sense off the field? It seems like he gets all the contract stuff he's wanted and doesn't get into legal trouble.

NYCPEinGermany
NYCPEinGermany

@Brendan @a57se  "If it happened that way, that would put that trade in the pantheon of awful trades for NFL history. "


Among the best trades in NFL history from my perspective.

NYCPEinGermany
NYCPEinGermany

@Brendan @BeardedBeard 

I agree they would discuss it in-house, but my gut feeling is that Revis would never go for it. Coming back to the Jets for so much less money would be like admitting defeat for him. Common sense might say that with the CB market (thankfully) readjusting, he'd realize he's better off with Rex than anywhere else, but Revis doesn't have a great history of practicing common sense off the football field.

Brendan
Brendan

@BDarc23 Agreed, it's already one of the worst trades in recent memory, getting Revis back would make it one of the worst trades ever. 

BDarc23
BDarc23

It's a bad trade for the Bucs now anyway because the CB market has changed...they have the equivalent of an underwater mortgage on a really nice house

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se When the trade happened everyone said the dream scenario would be to trade Revis, snag that 1st rounder (which turned into the Boss), then re-sign Revis in 2014 with an extra draft pick. 


If it happened that way, that would put that trade in the pantheon of awful trades for NFL history. 

a57se
a57se

@Brendan

I agree, if the Bucs cut Revis, Rex will probably drive Idzik nuts trying to talk him into bringing Revis back.

The Jets would be foolish not to test the waters if that were to happen as he would clearly be an upgrade.

Brendan
Brendan

@BeardedBeard Rex loves him, if you can replace a gimpy Cromartie at his current cap value (yes, I know he's easy to cut, bear with me) with a healthy Revis at a cap value slightly higher...you don't think they at least have that conversation? I think Team Revis will encounter a brick wall in Idzik and he's already shown he doesn't care about star power having already jettisoned him once. He has a much better bargaining position than Tanny did last time around. 


I don't think it happens, but I think if he gets cut they at least discuss it in the team headquarters. 

jaym
jaym

@BeardedBeard

Revis burned that bridge already with the Jets. I don't expect Revis back with the Jets

BDarc23
BDarc23

Is it the players or the scheme? My perception is that the 2009 Jets were a great blitzing team with great results on the blitz.

Brendan
Brendan

@jaym @BDarc23 They had 13 total CB blitzes this year: Wilson had 7, Trufant had 5 and one from Milliner.

jaym
jaym

@BDarc23I have not seen the Jets run a corner blitz in a while I may have missed it

BDarc23
BDarc23

It does seem like the Jets blitzes always get picked up compared to the Jets offense

a57se
a57se

@Bent

Tell me something, how often do those 'trick' plays work on Defense?

I mean, did the guy who rushed the QB in place of Richardson actually have a clear path because the O'line got so confused by Richardson dropping into coverage? Did the QB become so distracted by the move that he couldn't figure out where to throw the ball? This isn't anything new for most QB's nor is Rex' firesale Blitz which continues to get burned as teams seem ready and well prepared for these tricks.

Bent
Bent

@djf1 @Brendan @jaym The 7 yard first down he gave up to Marlon Moore on Sunday was the only time he was targeted all season, I believe.  He batted down one pass at the line.