BGA Extra: Jets at Jaguars
Bent , theJetsBlog.com
This analysis is based on watching and re-watching TV footage. As such, it is not always possible to accurately determine everything that was going on. However, every effort has been made to ensure that the information below is as complete and correct as possible. For the purposes of BGA Extra (but not BGA, since that is too early in the week), I have also reviewed the coaches film, which was available for every play (whereas last year, it was only available for big plays). Statistics from PFF which are not available to subscribers were used in the completion of this article and we thank them for providing us with exclusive access to these.
Welcome to BGA Extra, where I draw a line under the previous weekend’s game by responding to your questions from BGA during the week. After the jump, I respond to your questions about Sunday’s game against the Jags. If you would like your questions answered in future, remember to read my BGA game breakdowns every Monday and leave your question in the comments section.
@SimonOnSports (via twitter)
Is there a way to get a % of QB Sack-Fumble ratio? It like Sanchez drops the ball on hits at a higher rate than others?
I couldn’t find anyone who tracks this, so I compiled it myself. Sanchez is number six with 11 fumbles and 30 sacks. Matt Cassel is the worst, with nine fumbles in 19 sacks. Mike Vick, Robert Griffin, Nick Foles, Josh Freeman and Colin Kaepernick are also ahead of Sanchez. Most of those are guys that try to extend plays by scrambling.
This highlights one immediate limitation of the stat and that’s the fact that nobody splits out fumbles that occur when running the ball and those suffered when trying to pass – although a lot of time, the scramble will come as a result of pressure. For example, only three of Sanchez’s fumbles came on running plays – which would include any fumbled snaps. By contrast NINE of Griffin’s 11 fumbles were on running plays, so actually his fumble per sack rate would be much lower than I calculated.
Fumbling the ball is one thing, but actually losing fumbles is another. In that category, Sanchez is fourth, with Cassel, Jake Locker and Ryan Lindley ahead of him (in that order).
I’d like to take it a step further. We already know Sanchez gives up a lot of sacks relative to how often he is under pressure. As a direct comparison, Sanchez was under pressure 175 times last year and sacked 35 times – once every five times. Eli Manning was under pressure 342 times and only sacked 42 times – once every 8.1 times…or far less often. Sanchez has the third worst sack percentage this year (behind Aaron Rodgers and Andy Dalton) and is dead last for accuracy when pressured. So, what about fumbles relative to how often you’re under pressure?
That’s where Sanchez finds himself comfortably in second place (for both fumbles and fumbles lost). He still can’t oust Cassel from the top spot, but otherwise he’s in more danger of fumbling when pressured than any other quarterback in the league right now.
As for who excels in these categories, it’s exactly who you’d expect. Tom Brady hasn’t lost a fumble all year and Peyton Manning has only fumbled twice, although he’s also been under pressure less than almost everyone else. While it’s an inexact science due to the limitations of the data source, I think these numbers are concrete enough to statistically represent what we all already knew – Sanchez’s pocket presence is not good.
[In the image you shared] I think Lowery is in good position to make the tackle, possibly for a loss, if Greene tried to cut it outside to the left on the one play that’s pictured. I can’t knock Greene for that decision. With this offense, better to get a couple yards than lose 3.
The image doesn’t really show this, but at the time I made the screen grab, Lowery was kind of on his heels having bluffed a blitz. Greene definitely would have been able to turn the corner and even if Lowery was able to make the open field tackle, I’m certain his momentum would have got him a couple of yards, which was never going to happen if he just ran into the pile like he did.
Who do you think was at fault when they gave up the 4th and 15 conversion at the end of the game? Rex was livid. I think it was probably the slot corner not getting enough depth, but I’m not sure.
Wilson was on the slot receiver. He gave Shipley a huge cushion, ran with him and then slowed up and turned around to look for the ball which ended up going over his head. The two safeties, Landry and Bell were both deep, and the receiver on each sideline ran a clear out route so they were drawn far enough out of the middle. Nobody else ran any kind of underneath route so there was no reason for Wilson to pass the receiver off to the two deep guys.
Here is another truth. I am not letting the defense off the hook. Here is another unrealistic stat. The Jets are now ranked as a #6 defense but are they truly a #6?
A couple of questions, from watching the game. It so looks to me like Kyle Wilson operates so much better in zone concepts then man coverage. He also is a pretty decent tackler. Any chance the Jets could consider moving him to free safety? Second question, with the strength on the jets D being D line and secondary, do you think the Jets would consider utilizing a big nickel (3 safety look) as a base defense next year? I mean Bell and Allen look like good in the box safeties.
The three safety look is certainly something that the Jets employ often and against certain pass first teams (which are becoming increasingly popular), they could end up in nickel all the time, so that could pretty much end up being their base defense anyway. With most of their linebackers set to leave at the end of the year, that could be a good option. As for Wilson, I’m not sure about him being better in zone than man – he does seem to get confused a lot because the Jets mix up man and zone. Maybe a simpler role (like deep safety) could be something he’d handle well. Not a bad idea.
Do you think Reuland should play more fullback? It seems when watching that Lex Hillard is kinda inconsistent.
You’re absolutely right that Hilliard is inconsistent. However, Reuland is pretty inconsistent too. I think Reuland has more upside as a blocker and if you have a third TE that can line up in the backfield, that does save you a roster spot. I wonder where Josh Baker fits in? I like him too.
Do you really think the Jets should mess around with Cromartie at WR like you mentioned? Seems like too big a gamble to have him go both ways when hes been doing such a good job for us.
It’s a huge gamble, but it’s all hands to the pump at this stage of the season. You’ll also notice guys like Harris and Landry playing special teams. Cromartie has unbelievable physical gifts. He showed in the Houston game that he could get deep and with the Jets’ difficulties on offense, a contribution like that could be a big deal for them.
If we were playing the Ravens, would Rex have Started Sanchez? Any reason you didn’t mention the hospital pass to Kerley in the flat a la Pennington style?
I don’t think Sanchez would have started if it was a home game either. No particular reason I didn’t mention that play, but you just did to save me the job!
On the 36 yd completion to Cumberland what defense were Jags in? It was 3rd and 8 from the 13. They must have expected us to run the ball there. Who should have covered him (if you can tell)?
It was the most basic zone you could ever expect to see over the middle. Both safeties were pretty deep and ran even deeper as it became obvious Sanchez was going to throw. The linebackers all dropped a few yards and Cumberland initially ran down the seam then broke towards the deep post and Sanchez threw the ball in the gap over the linebacker’s heads and in front of the safeties that were too deep. Maybe Pozluzsny could have dropped quicker (it went right over his head and he was slightly deeper than the two OLBs) or maybe the safeties shouldn’t have been so deep. It had to be an accurate throw though – and who can blame the Jags for relying on a defense that needed an accurate throw to beat it?
The defense has been playing better over the last several weeks, but I still worry about the run defense. While they had a truly dominant performance against the Cards – a large part of that can be attributed to the rookie QB performance, where the Jets knew that they could over commit to the run without much worry of the passing game coming back to haunt them. I was actually troubled by the Jags running game. They were using running backs so far down on their depth chart and still getting great results (24-123) … It seems like the team is just not up to the level of run defense it has had in the past. Pouha has been fighting through injury, but too often the unit seems out of place. I wonder whether Ellis, Couples and Wilkerson have anything to do with this. Are they over zealous in trying to create pressure? Do they lose leverage early? How do you explain the difference when compared to the dominant run defense in years past (when no-name linemen seemed to have more control)? Some of it might be Scott and his deterioration, but does that explain most of it? Does the d-line coaching change have anything to do with this? It seems to me that the defensive line (while getting better over the several weeks) still isn’t at the level over the last few years. Do you agree and what is the way to get back to that level?
Scott and Harris aren’t playing as well as they have in the past, but I think the biggest difference from last year has been Po’uha. He’s played okay, but nowhere near as good as last year, where he was consistently disruptive even when doubled. That’s entirely attributable to his injuries, but I don’t know whether we can expect him to get over those.
On Sunday, I did notice some of the linemen looking to generate pressure as you described and I think that was by design. They were prepared to allow the Jags to have some success running the ball, as long as they could pressure the quarterback (which they did at a higher rate than any other game all year) to limit Henne’s production, which they saw as more of a threat.
I believe they can still be solid against the run, when they’re not focusing more on getting pressure. Take out the 32-yard touchdown, which came about largely because Thomas got injured and McIntyre ran on the field and didn’t get set before the snap and the Jets gave up less than four yards per carry the rest of the time.
It looked to me like Eric Smith vacated his lane on the TD run and that if he’d have stayed home, it should’ve been stopped, maybe for a small gain, but not a TD. Do you agree? If not, what did you see? Was ridiculous to see three Jets defenders falling over each other trying to get back in position.
Well, Smith lost contain because he had to spin to get off Eugene Monroe’s block as he was being driven backwards and he lost sight of Owens at the moment he made his cut. However, at the start of the play, Ellis Lankster had responsibility for outside contain and lost it because he allowed his receiver to drive him to the inside. He ended up being one of the two guys Smith got in the way of when he got off Monroe’s block. If Smith just stayed on the block he would have kept contain and the run would have been bottled up, but he probably didn’t realize that Lankster wasn’t outside him to contain the outside and had instead been forced inside.
Coples looked good, but seems to leave his feet too early. His missed a sack once doing that and almost missed the second one the same way. Great to see him getting pressure though. You think he’s on the same trajectory MO was last year at this point?
Basically, he’s ascending at a faster rate in terms of his pass rushing, but isn’t quite on the same curve in terms of stopping the run. Last year, Wilkerson had three sacks, four hits and eight pressures in 300 pass rush attempts (Note: this year he has 4/7/18). Coples, in 262 pass rush attempts, has three sacks, eight hits and 11 pressures.
While Cromartie has had a stellar season, I notice what looked like glimpses of his old, ‘avoid-contact’ pattern a couple times when the ball is reaching the receiver he’s covering. On one play in particular, he seemed to assume the bracketed coverage would make the hit as the ball arrived at the receiver, and he held back. Did you notice that, and is it a returning pattern?
On the whole I’d say he’s been much more physical this year, in terms of tackling, hitting and jamming at the line. There may be the occasional lapse from time to time but, overall, I haven’t noticed him reverting to his previous self. He had one excellent open field tackle, for example. He did get his bell rung by Yeremiah Bell, so maybe that made him a little more tentative than usual.
I don’t really have any football questions because your analysis covered them. But I am curious if you could see Rex’s reaction to the Sanchez fumble?
He stomped away muttering to himself with this look on his face:
What’s your opinion on McIntyre? He seems to be playing ok. Do you think there is a lot of upside there?
It’s hard to say. I’ve always thought he looked like an NFL player, but I don’t really see him as a future star. I’d peg his ceiling at someone like Matt Roth, who peaked a couple of seasons ago and was not flashy, but very productive in terms of generating pressure and against the run. However, right now, McIntyre is still developing and for every good play he makes, there’s also some plays where he looks overmatched. Hopefully, he’s a guy whose performance will get better as his comfort level increases. He and Ricky Sapp could give the Jets some nice depth at outside linebacker next year, but unless one or both of them emerges faster than anticipated, they still probably need to replace the starters.
Historically, why does this team always give me hope only to rip my guts out at the last (and worst) possible moment?
Ummm…I’m going to assume that was rhetorical.
I’ll be back on Monday with the BGA Preview for the Titans game. Have a good weekend!