BGA Extra: Jets at Panthers

Welcome to BGA Extra, where I draw a line under the previous weekend’s game by responding to your questions from Bent’s Game Analysis during the week. After the jump, I respond to your questions about the loss to the Panthers. If you would like your questions answered in future, remember to read my BGA game breakdowns every Monday and leave your question in the comments section.

James Plath
Kind of off topic, but do you think Tampa keeps Revis on the current deal, netting us a 3rd rounder? Or will they dump as the CB market has/is undergoing a significant correction? (And if so, do you think there’s a snowflake’s chance we resign him?)

Revis has quietly had a great season, but this has failed to have much impact on the Bucs’ fortunes, confirming what we already spent three years establishing: No cornerback is worth $16m per year.

Anything could happen with Revis. They could opt to keep him for one more year (and have the cap room to do so), perhaps because it would be an embarrassing failure to spend a first rounder on someone and then dump them after one failed season. On the other hand, they could easily cut their losses and save money (and improve the value of that pick) by getting rid of him. I hope he stays, not because of the pick, but because it’s otherwise inevitable he’ll end up with one of our rivals. I can’t see him returning to the Jets at a cut price because there’s too much pride involved on each side. If Rex is staying, that move would probably be the best possible use of the Jets’ resources and the best move Revis could make the re-establish his brand though.

An interesting what-if question becomes what if the Bucs weren’t prepared to pay him that kind of money leaving the Jets with no viable trade partner? Would Revis have accepted less money to play elsewhere, or even stay with the Jets long term? Or would he have been stuck in limbo, refusing to play for any less than that? Ironically, if he stayed here (and let’s assume the Jets drafted Richardson and didn’t bother with Milliner) then there’s no question the Jets would have been a playoff contender – and then he’d be in a situation where maybe he would have a chance of arguing his worth was around the $16m level.

JayM
Out of all the starting rookie offensive linemen is Winters the worst of them all?

It’s difficult to argue otherwise. Certainly none of them have a PFF rating close to as bad as his.

However, I’m sure there are plenty of linemen not currently playing, who would be struggling just as badly as Winters has, if they were to be forced into action. It remains to be seen whether forcing him into the lineup prematurely will pay off, but that hasn’t been the case with guys like Will Rackley and Jason Pinkston in recent years.

jmactheman
In the second quarter, a five or so yard Panthers gain was initially called back for an illegal formation because Steve Smith was covering another eligible receiver on the line. After the penalty was announced, S. Smith lifted his helmet (so it was sitting on his head, with the facemask pointing almost straight up, and with his face exposed) to argue with the referees for about two minutes, after which they declared that the guy Smith was covering was not an eligible receiver.

CBS being CBS, they didn’t show where everyone lined up, but I’d imagine it would be pretty hard for the officials (I think this is the Umpire’s job) to mistake an offensive lineman for an eligible receiver. With the benefit of the All-22 footage, can you shed more light on what happened on this play?

The rules state that you must have one eligible receiver (and only one) on the line of scrimmage on either side of the line. When the tight end and receiver on the same side are both on the line, that’s usually a penalty. However, the Panthers had confused the officials by lining up with an unbalanced line as you can see below.

Ben Hartsock (#84) is actually lined up at left tackle, but he’s an eligible receiver. The left tackle has moved over to right tight end, but because he’s ineligible, it doesn’t matter that he’s on the line. Had Steve Smith not lined up on the line of scrimmage, then it would have been an illegal formation because there is no eligible receiver on the line on that side. Similarly, if that were a normal offensive alignment, then there would be two violations because you’d have two eligible receivers on the line on the right and none on the left, because Brandon LaFell (#11) was off the line.

So, the officials were quite correct to reverse the decision.

James Plath
Based on the look-to-the-future position the Jets are in, do you think they are best served by continuing with Winters at Guard? Has Winters shown you enough to think he might be part of the line next year, or do you think he is just too much a liability now and for the foreseeable future?

Look to the future? Now? It’s only just begun! [Fully aware that most of you won’t get that reference, but hey, it’s Christmas!]

Since they are in such a position, I’d argue that it makes MORE sense to play him than it did while they were still in contention. However, I’m more interested to see if they’re going to let Oday Aboushi, Will Campbell and/or Ben Ijalana get some reps.

I’m sure Winters will fare better next year. If he doesn’t someone will hopefully beat him out in camp.

1969JAN12th
In looking over the comments these past few weeks, their have been a number of different camps. The replace Rex Ryan/Keep Rex Ryan camp. The get rid of/bench/be patient Geno Smith camp. And, of course, “it’s the pieces camp”; we need two WRs, a TE, and OL. The draft a QB camp and, the sign a veteran FA QB camp. Almost forgot…Idzik is an idiot camp.

In looking over some other teams: Eli (5-9), Romo (7-7), Big Ben (6-8), Matt Ryan (4-10) would all be considered better QBs then Geno Smith…but their teams also have issues. So, it would appear Geno Smith is not the only problem.(Also, Andy Reid sucks with Eagles/Vick and is a “genius with Chiefs/A.Smith). Winning is “hard” in the NFL…….It seems that the answers are probably a combination of all these “camps”.

Question; which camp/camps do you fall in? Where do we go from here?

I always preach patience, but I can see arguments for anyone to feel strongly about these issues. The likes of Rex, Cromartie, Holmes, Sanchez could all be back next year or they could all be gone – and everything in between. I don’t agree with everything Idzik has done this year, but I understand the reasoning. I’ve had issues with certain things Rex Ryan has done over the years, but I know the players love him and I don’t think the team’s failing are all down to him. Getting better receivers could certainly help Smith, but that’s not going to suddenly give him pocket presence, the ability to read the field and perfect timing and accuracy overnight. As for drafting or signing another quarterback, they have to make improvements at the position. While Smith hasn’t been so bad that they should give up on him, he hasn’t been good enough that they can afford to pass on the right guy if the opportunity to get them presents itself.

It’s always a combination of things. Always.

levi
On the 72 yard short pass to Williams I noticed some Jets players were blocked very well. Ive actually noticed it in other games too but not to the extent that Carolina showed. Is getting off blocks a product of Carolina being good at blocking or is it something the Jets are not good at?

I touched on this in the linebacker section, but Harris has always struggled to get off blocks. However, he’s been effective throughout his career when they’ve managed to keep him clean. Demario Davis is not quite as good at keeping him clean as Bart Scott was, but the defensive line has been so good that this hasn’t been as big of an issue so far this season.

An interesting way to investigate this statistically is via Football Outsiders’ run defense breakdowns. Last year, they had the Jets 6th best in the NFL at the second level, but 23rd in the open field. This year, they are 1st at the second level and 8th in the open field. That suggests to me they’ve done a better job of keeping their linebackers clean for the most part (and, yes, I realize that the play which this question references wasn’t even a running play).

metjetnet (aka miketaliaferro)
It certainly caught my eye that right after Kotwika’s group got torched, his name immediately crops up in stories about the open Army coaching job… Feelers from West Point? Jumping from the Jets? Being pushed from the Jets? Where’s that crack Jets beat media crowd when you need them? Off tweeting somewhere, I suppose…

I could definitely see Kotwica leaving after this year. His ties are with the old regime and, if it’s true what Mike Westhoff says that he’s been saddled with inferior personnel, then perhaps he would want to leave anyway, before doing any further damage to his reputation.

McGeorge
Do you think the special teams coach will be fired after the season? If they fire Rex and bring in a new guy?

If Rex goes, yes. If Rex stays, somewhere between maybe and probably.

metjetnet (aka miketaliaferro)
I’m tired of Wilson’s strutting & posing after his man falls down trying to reach another overthrown pass, as if Wilson himself had broken it up; and then he gets torched on the next play when the receiver CAN reach the pass. How many times have we seen Wilson trailing behind a receiver by 3+ yards up the middle of the field as the guy scores?

Wilson has been beaten for ZERO touchdown passes this year. He’s also had ZERO penalties other than that ridiculous Bills game where he had five. He’s in the top five for yards and receptions per coverage snap for slot corners. I get frustrated with some of his antics too, but he’s played better than he gets credit for and it’s surprising they’ve only ever used him in the nickel all season – he’s been on the outside 12.9% of the time, compared with 49.6% of the time last season. Then again, maybe that’s helped him be more consistent. Wilson still has one year left on his rookie deal.

BDarc23
The team seems to have good talent in the secondary but I feel like the young player’s growing pains and Cromartie’s crappy play (possibly due to injury) have made it seem like an overhaul is required. With the expected improvement from Milliner and Allen next year, can this secondary be “good” if the Jets get a healthy Cromartie at a much reduced price?

Absolutely, but I can’t see Cromartie and “much reduced price” getting mentioned together too often. He signed with CAA because he wanted Revis money. He’s not going to get close to that now, even though I agree with you that his poor performance has been influenced by his injury. It would be highly unexpected for him to suddenly accept a major paycut though. I think he’s gone and, unfortunately, his poor play means his contract is probably untradeable, so they’d have to make him a cap casualty. Obviously that would necessitate an overhaul of some description, although I do like some of the depth and potential they currently have.

It’s worth remembering that Wilson and Lankster had major roles on last year’s team (over 1,300 snaps, compared with less than 500 this year) where the secondary played well even without Revis. They obviously prioritized developing Milliner over putting in two guys with lower ceilings that had proven they could hold their own.

__fense
I don’t understand how sacks work. If Wilkerson tackled Cam Newton three yards behind the line of scrimmage, isn’t that a sack? Does he just get counted as a running back if he’s not actively trying the throw it?

It comes down to whether or not it’s a designed run. Newton never looked to pass, whereas if he’d sat in the pocket for a few seconds looking downfield and then taken off, it would have gone down as a sack. Running backs can actually be sacked if they look to pass downfield.

djf1
I wonder if Bent can compare effectiveness of plays when jets played a cover 2 vs less safety help.

The Jets weren’t able to run much cover two because the Panthers ran plenty of three, four and five wide receiver sets which forced the strong safety to match up, or the secondary to revert to a zone coverage. The Panthers attacked the cover two with a throw down the middle to LaFell for 36 yards and a couple of passes for more modest gains on the outside.

BDarc23
Did Geno have the ball to Holmes on time on that bad drop or did he wait too long to throw it?

Perfect timing and a concentration drop. That happens when you’re pressing to try and make an impact – Holmes was peeking downfield. The ball didn’t “eat him up” so I don’t think you could say he was not expecting it to be on time.

nyijkm
I don’t see how we wouldn’t benefit from Smith being a mobile QB. Geno has to work with the tools he has. Remember in the preseason when there were talks about running a pistol/read option offense? Why did we never even try to implement this, especially with guys like Kerley, Powell and Cribbs?

They have used plenty of pistol and read-option looks, but these have been special packages rather than an integral part of the offense. I agree with that approach, because they can be predictable and easy to gameplan against if you use them too much. Less is more. It does surprise me that they have Alex Green – a guy who played in a Pistol-based spread in college – but haven’t used him in those packages.

Brendan
Can’t they just play the defense both ways? I bet Kenrick could do better at LG than Winters.

Best question of the week (even if it was meant to be rhetorical). Let’s do this.

So, at center, you’ve got Snacks, because a wise man once said that Rex Ryan should convert him to center and have him take over from Mangold. I agree with moving Kenrick to left guard, but at right guard, I’m going to cheat and put Will Campbell there, because he was a defensive tackle in college and hasn’t played in the NFL yet, so I’m entitled to bend the rules. The two tackles would be Wilkerson and Douzable … this isn’t going to be a finesse offense.

Wide receiver #1 should be Cromartie, because I still feel they should have persevered with that experiment. Since none of our other defensive backs seem to be capable of catching the ball, we’ll opt for 22 personnel (two tight ends and two backs in the backfield). Like I said, this isn’t going to be a finesse offense.

The fullback is obviously Sheldon “The Blast Chiller” Richardson and the gameplan will revolve around him getting a heavy workload to wear down the defense. I’d put Ed Reed in at tailback, although I wish he were three years younger when you knew there was a good chance of a touchdown every time he got the ball in his hands. I guess Kyle Wilson could be the change of pace back, not that I’d ever leave him in to block. For the two tight ends, the bigger blocking specialist would have to be Coples and the other could be Nick Bellore, who displayed his pass catching ability on that fake punt last season.

That leaves the quarterback. Since Dawan Landry is the quarterback of the secondary, he’s the obvious choice. He should be able to read the defense as well as anyone else and should only be handing the ball off most of the time anyway. Furthermore he was actually a high school quarterback and was recruited as a quarterback for Georgia Tech before redshirting and changing positions.

This doesn’t sound like an upgrade over the current incarnation?

PS – If Rex gets fired, you better believe I’m throwing my hat into the ring for a head coaching job.

spindoctor
Who is more likely to start next year…Geno or Sanchez?

Ugh…worst question of the week.

This time last year, it was impossible to imagine the Jets sticking with Sanchez for 2013, but with the injury and the passage of time, maybe the fans would be more amenable to that happening. It still seems unlikely though. I could see Sanchez starting elsewhere before Geno gets another start here though, assuming the Jets bring in another option for 2014.

1969JAN12th
Not sure I understand Rex’ logic on the blocked punt. We are SO worried that Ted Ginn Jr will return a punt for a TD that we alter the blocking for the punt (extra flyers per Rex). Kick it away from TGJ ?…kick it out of bounds ?…sure, these are not great options either. But, the worst one was what occurred. I think we (coaches) are overthinking the punt. Kick the freakin’ ball and get down the field, and make the tackle. That is what good teams do.

They’ve been so bad at getting down there, that I DO understand the logic. I don’t think they’re worried about Ted Ginn, just ANYONE. With that said, it was risky, but the Jets still had enough guys in there to prevent that rush and it was a screw-up by the blockers moreso than a bad call.

bradysucks
BGA – Bradysucks’s Game Analysis

Jets suck on offense
Jets suck at drafting on offense
Jets are a foolish organization to ignore the offense
The Jets fans want a team that can score points

SIMPLE

[Retires]

>>>

That’s it for this week. Thank you for your great questions and comments. I’ll be back to preview the Browns game on Sunday morning.




80 comments
djf1
djf1

when was the last time an nfl player saw more than 10 snaps each on offense and defense?

djf1
djf1

Thanka Bent.  My question about cover 2 was about the whole season, I wasn't clear - 57 seemed to think that more cover 2 was a general solution, but I don't think it has necessarily worked any better this season.  Also, you have my vote for the HC gig.


jaym
jaym

Bent wants to be a HC?

How many hats do you want to wear?


BTW you told me the Honey Badger (Tyrann Mathieu)  sucked, meanwhile they are talking about him as DROY.  (I am losing faith in your judgement)

BDarc23
BDarc23

Bent- LOL on the response to bradysucks

1969JAN12th
1969JAN12th

Saw this on GGN for those that think that Rex shouldn't return because he placed Mark in jeopardy during Giant's game:


2013 SMITH -       Comp. %=55.5....Yds/attempt=6.9.....yds/game=188.7....QB rating=62.9....QBR=25.9

2012 SANCHEZ- Comp. % =54.3..Yds/attempt=6.4 ....yds/game= 192.2...QB rating=66.9.....QBR=23.3


Essentially we replaced Mark with Geno; would Mark have improved with Marty ?...that is a big leap.


(on the other hand, it is sad that we replaced arguably the worst QB in 2012 with the worst QB in 2013...maybe we are cursed)

levi
levi

Bent, your response about Revis and him going to one of our rivals got me thinking about Rex going to one of them as a DC. I would not want to see either of them on the other side and even worse both of them together.

a57se
a57se

Hey Bent, have you had any time to think about my 'Hidden Turnover' theory?


Bent
Bent

@djf1 Wayne Hunter actually did that in 2010!  He played 13 snaps as a DT in goal line packages.


Spencer Larsen played over 45 snaps at both FB and LB in 2008 for the Broncos.  Patrick Peterson has played 35 snaps at WR THIS SEASON!


Guys like Peko and Ngata play a lot of FB and then obviously Vrabel and Bruschi used to get a bunch of reps at TE with the Pats.

djf1
djf1

@Hanknaples even HOF play at center doesn't fix our offense, so no.

Bent
Bent

@djf1 They hardly used it until Reed got here.  Now that they are, it hasn't been particularly successful.  As he pointed out himself, you need to pair it with pressing and jamming at the line and none of the guys they're using are much good at that.  Probably explains why they were never doing it to start with.

djf1
djf1

@jaym supposedly bent has like 17 jobs so what's one more? :)

Bent
Bent

@jaym I didn't say that.  If you recall, I specifically told you that my friend, a lifelong LSU fan who knows the game, didn't think he'd be anything more than a nickel corner in the NFL.  It's his judgment that was off, unless you count me trusting his opinion.


You might also recall that I don't scout college players these days and therefore I would never have a strong enough opinion on a player to say that about them before I'd even scouted them properly.


In a way, he was right, because the Cards employ him in the slot most of the time with one safety deep instead of two.  It's a perfect scheme for him, but he has played well.

juunit
juunit

@1969JAN12th 

Not really a big leap honestly. Sanchez was terrible in 2012, we all know that. But we also know that he has played better than that in the NFL. With a real OC in Mornhinweg he very well may have been enough to get us to the playoffs. 

SackDance99
SackDance99

@1969JAN12thExcept, the rumors are that Idzik wanted Sanchez in the game, not Rex.  As pre-season games are, among other things, for player evaluation, it would not be unusual for the GM to want a specific player to play, as opposed to the regular season.  There's no game-planning in pre-season.  So, why would Rex overrule his new GM and not play Sanchez?  He wouldn't and he also wouldn't ever call out the GM for the decision. 

a57se
a57se

@levi 

There is no way in this world or the next Rex is going to work for Belichick, so that leaves the Dolphins and I just can't see Philbin being a Rex type of guy.

djf1
djf1

@levi ugh, i hadn't even thought about that.  

Bent
Bent moderator

@a57se 


It has some merit, but at the same time, it overcomplicates matters.  A missed opportunity is a hidden turnover because you say they were forced to waste some good plays that could otherwise have been used later so they'd score twice instead of once?


Okay, but those same plays wouldn't necessarily have worked later on.  Maybe the team would have been further behind and therefore wouldn't have tried to run the ball.  And do you give extra credit for a guy making a play out of nothing despite the fact that maybe they would have scored anyway because they can now score again using that same set of plays?


This is just a way of saying it was still a missed opportunity even though they scored.  Which it was...but they did still score.  You say Geno has no excuse for the missed opportunity, which is fair enough.

ryan5757
ryan5757

@a57se Just curious - what is your 'Hidden Turnover' theory? 

djf1
djf1

@Bent @djf1 Sorry, I meant in one game.  I really gotta start being more specific.

a57se
a57se

@Bent@djf1 

Plus Harris really isn't right for the MLB position in a cover 2......

The CB technique is different for Cover 2 and while the guys we have haven't shown the requisite ability, they probably haven't been coached up in it either.

juunit
juunit

@Bent@jaym 

Yeah, I remember that. I think at the time you said that I made a Coleman comparison, where the guy at least is good for big plays.

It's largely irrelevant though, since the Cards took him before we picked in the 3rd. And trading up for a guy with "character concerns" is something I don't think will ever happen in the history of the draft. 

jaym
jaym

@Bent@jaym My bad

a57se
a57se

@juunit@1969JAN12th 

Plus the WR situation was actually worse in 2012 as was the running game and the defense.

Bytor
Bytor

@juunit @1969JAN12th Has he though? I've seen enough nicely designed plays with wide open receivers either be missed or the pass thrown behind or under where it should be. Plays mediocre qb's make in their sleep. He never had a rocket but his arm strength looked to be declining as well for whatever reason.

a57se
a57se

@SackDance99@1969JAN12th 

What rumors are your referring to? I must have missed them! I thought Rex was upset and wanted to beat the Giants so he put in Sanchez.............

1969JAN12th
1969JAN12th

@SackDance99 @1969JAN12th I'm  not blaming Rex for what happened; just showing that with either QB, the outcome (season) would probably have been similar.

Bent
Bent

@a57se @levi Whenever I say "one of our rivals" I include the Giants.

SackDance99
SackDance99

@Bent@a57seIt's also an unfair and speculative measure.  How about Hidden TDs?  Every drop, bad route or missed block that ends or contributes to the end of a drive means that a successful play was wasted and momentum was stymied.  So, Geno this season would have another 20 Hidden Turnovers and 40 Hidden TDs. 

a57se
a57se

@Bent@a57se 

I wasn't trying to make this about Geno per se, this applies to all offenses.  To me, it is similar to the Hidden Yards concept. 

I think a metric could be developed utilizing this idea that would measure an offenses efficiency. I would think the good offenses in the league have a lot less 'missed opportunities' or 'hidden turnovers' then the poor ones. Maybe call it the "Execution index".

a57se
a57se

@ryan5757@a57se 

The basic idea is that when an offense has the chance for a big play (TD result) and screws it up (like missing a wide open receiver on a go route) it is roughly equivalent to a turnover even if the team manages to successfully march down the field after the 'miss' and score a TD. The sequence of plays that resulted in the TD after missing the go route COULD have constituted another successful scoring drive so  the teams' offense produced 2 TD's in one series (Not really but potentially). Not succeeding on the go route would be viewed as a hidden turnover as the team 'lost' a TD drive because of the incompletion.


I think the concept of tracking 'missed opportunities', as Bent put it, would be a good way to measure an offenses execution and efficiency. I would also include plays where the QB has the time but does not see a WR who is wide open and throws to an underneath receiver instead and thus misses the opportunity for a TD.

a57se
a57se

@Bent 

I would have signed him in the off-season if for nothing else then to take him away from Belichick.

djf1
djf1

@Bent Wow!  And he returned a couple of punts, too.  That certainly fits the ironman definition I think.

Bent
Bent

Julian Edelman did it twice in 2011 and then once again in the playoffs.  That's probably the answer.  He actually had 27 snaps on offense and 27 on defense in the conference championship game against the Ravens.

djf1
djf1

@Hanknaples No, it isn't.  Even if it was an upgrade, it doesn't suddenly have a huge impact on the offense.  The offense's weakest spots are at LG, QB, WR, TE.  Way to pick the position that needs the least help.  

Bent
Bent

@a57se Depends which Cover 2.  You don't want him running down the middle in a Tampa 2 (which LaFell burned them in on Sunday) but in a cover 2 zone or some other variation where he's not responsible for the deep middle, he can do fine. 

juunit
juunit

@a57se@juunit@Bent@jaym 

I wasn't. I think I'd said he could go as early as the end of the 2nd round to a team like the Ravens. 

A guy who probably would've been a 1st rounder wasn't really going to drop all the way to the 5th because he smoked some weed in college. He owned his mistakes during all the interview stuff, so obviously the Cards felt comfortable with him, and its paid off. 

a57se
a57se

@juunit@Bent@jaym 

I think a lot of folks were surprised when the Cards grabbed him in the 3rd round.

a57se
a57se

@juunit@a57se@Bytor@1969JAN12th 

The whole concept of THE GUY as you put it is a best guess. You don't really know until you have him in house and he's playing. The Jets thought Sanchez was THE GUY, how'd that turn out? 

Apparently they didn't think Geno was the guy when they drafted him....I have no idea what they think now.

juunit
juunit

@a57se@juunit@Bytor@1969JAN12th 

Well, if THE guy were in this draft and getting him was reasonable (either he'd last to our pick or trading up wouldn't cost kilos of gold) then I'd take him and say screw Smith. 

If that guy isn't in this draft, I'd draft no QBs, give Smith a second year, then look for THE guy in 2015, assuming Smith hasn't turned into that guy. 

And I do think there are a couple of QBs who should be considered THE guy that will be coming out in the next 1-3 years. It's just a matter of exactly when they do. And when they do, we pounce, having spent all the time leading up to then on getting WR/TE/RB/OG and guys on D as well. 

juunit
juunit

@Bytor@juunit@1969JAN12th

Oh, I don't want Sanchez to be on the team in 2014. Just that, looking back, we'd be better off if he hadn't gotten injured this year. 

And, just my opinion, but if we're not gonna go all in on a QB, we shouldn't bother at all. The vast majority of successful ones are the guys who go early. Sure, we could get lucky and find a mid-round starter at QB. But I'd rather wait until THE guy is there and take him in the 1st, whoever that might be. 

Bytor
Bytor

@juunit @Bytor @1969JAN12th That's fair. To me it's just not enough to even get to be a reliable mediocre offense. Look what a decent, non-turnover prone qb can do for a team like KC. Let someone else take a chance on Mark putting it together. We'd have more upside in using Tampa's pick on another qb.

juunit
juunit

@Bytor@juunit@1969JAN12th 

I'm not saying he would've battled Manning for the MVP. But I think there's really no doubt he'd have been better. He was still making mistakes in preseason but he was also moving the ball.

a57se
a57se

@levi@a57se 

Haha....hop in your delorean and tell that to Rex before he decides to put Sanchez in!


Anybody else keep typing Snachez or Sanchex instead of Sanchez??? I have to constantly check before posting!

levi
levi

@a57se If you wanted to win a game why would you put Sanchez in? Zing.

a57se
a57se

@djf1@a57se@Bent@levi 

Have you seen some of the comments out of Giants land since Rex became the HC, I think they don't like him very much over there.

djf1
djf1

@a57se @Bent @levi I think that perception of the Giants is much more a media creation than reality.

a57se
a57se

@Bent@a57se@levi 

Ahhhh, that is interesting...do you think the Giants brass would consider bringing a brash, 'loudmouth' like Rex into their pristine, button downed family?

a57se
a57se

@Bent@a57se

Just from watching games and my limited capacity for remembering exactly what happened, it seems Drew Brees and Peyton Manning and the like miss opportunities for big plays a lot less then lower echelon QB's. I think the difference is that the lower level guys don't even attempt to make some of the plays because they don't read the defense as well nor anticipate the routes as well. 

Missed opportunities wouldn't be JUST throws that were incompleted (drops, bad passes), it would include throws that were not made!




 

Bent
Bent

@a57se @Bent @Bytor I dunno man. I bet a GOOD offense misses more of these than a BAD offense.  


You'd want to express it as a percentage of opportunities missed.

a57se
a57se

@Bent@a57se@Bytor 

I agree that long drawn out drives can be more demoralizing then a one off big play but that isn't the purpose of the Metric that I am trying to define. 

If the offensive coordinator is identifying weaknesses/tendencies in the opposing defense and setting up big plays (something all Coordinators do) to exploit those weaknesses/tendencies then this metric would be a good measure of how effective this planning is and how well equipped his team is at executing those plays. I don't think anyone would orchestrate and practice these plays simply to back the defense off the line of scrimmage because you won't do that unless you actually execute these type plays on a fairly consistent basis. 

I think teams strive for both the quick strike capability and the ability to march down the field and eat up the clock.

When you take your shots and the play is there for the taking but for some reason or other you can't make the completion, it hurts the offense overall regardless of what happens on the next few plays.

I would think there would be a correlation between teams with winning records and teams who don't miss a lot of these opportunities!


Bent
Bent

@a57se @Bytor As a possible counterpoint, I would say that a touchdown on a long drive does more damage than a one-off big play, so if you had a "hidden turnover" but then still went on to score, you might end up better off that you would have been scoring that initial opportunity because (a) your own defense gets less rest (b) the other team gets more time to come back and (c) you don't wear the other team down.


Might be more demoralizing to see a big play, but not necessarily - a long drive is demoralizing too.

a57se
a57se

@Bytor@a57se 

That is nice but if you are missing too many opportunities, then your offense will be sitting on the bench.

Bytor
Bytor

@a57se On the flip side, you run more plays to run their defense down.

a57se
a57se

@SackDance99@Bent@a57se 

Again, this is not about Geno so chill out.

I am thinking about a metric to measure an offenses execution or efficiency that is better then just what percentage of drives end up in TD's......

Bent
Bent

The basis of a good idea is there.  It needs work.

a57se
a57se

@djf1@a57se@ryan5757 

Every form of analysis in Football is subjective to a certain degree and lacking in certain areas. That is why  you really can't make broad judgments off of one or two stats. When you put all the flawed stats together, you MAY get a clearer picture of what is happening with a given team and it is in this context I think it might have some value.