Welcome to BGA Extra, where I draw a line under the previous weekend’s game by responding to your questions from Bent’s Game Analysis during the week. After the jump, I respond to your questions about the loss to the Panthers. If you would like your questions answered in future, remember to read my BGA game breakdowns every Monday and leave your question in the comments section.
Kind of off topic, but do you think Tampa keeps Revis on the current deal, netting us a 3rd rounder? Or will they dump as the CB market has/is undergoing a significant correction? (And if so, do you think there’s a snowflake’s chance we resign him?)
Revis has quietly had a great season, but this has failed to have much impact on the Bucs’ fortunes, confirming what we already spent three years establishing: No cornerback is worth $16m per year.
Anything could happen with Revis. They could opt to keep him for one more year (and have the cap room to do so), perhaps because it would be an embarrassing failure to spend a first rounder on someone and then dump them after one failed season. On the other hand, they could easily cut their losses and save money (and improve the value of that pick) by getting rid of him. I hope he stays, not because of the pick, but because it’s otherwise inevitable he’ll end up with one of our rivals. I can’t see him returning to the Jets at a cut price because there’s too much pride involved on each side. If Rex is staying, that move would probably be the best possible use of the Jets’ resources and the best move Revis could make the re-establish his brand though.
An interesting what-if question becomes what if the Bucs weren’t prepared to pay him that kind of money leaving the Jets with no viable trade partner? Would Revis have accepted less money to play elsewhere, or even stay with the Jets long term? Or would he have been stuck in limbo, refusing to play for any less than that? Ironically, if he stayed here (and let’s assume the Jets drafted Richardson and didn’t bother with Milliner) then there’s no question the Jets would have been a playoff contender – and then he’d be in a situation where maybe he would have a chance of arguing his worth was around the $16m level.
Out of all the starting rookie offensive linemen is Winters the worst of them all?
It’s difficult to argue otherwise. Certainly none of them have a PFF rating close to as bad as his.
However, I’m sure there are plenty of linemen not currently playing, who would be struggling just as badly as Winters has, if they were to be forced into action. It remains to be seen whether forcing him into the lineup prematurely will pay off, but that hasn’t been the case with guys like Will Rackley and Jason Pinkston in recent years.
In the second quarter, a five or so yard Panthers gain was initially called back for an illegal formation because Steve Smith was covering another eligible receiver on the line. After the penalty was announced, S. Smith lifted his helmet (so it was sitting on his head, with the facemask pointing almost straight up, and with his face exposed) to argue with the referees for about two minutes, after which they declared that the guy Smith was covering was not an eligible receiver.
CBS being CBS, they didn’t show where everyone lined up, but I’d imagine it would be pretty hard for the officials (I think this is the Umpire’s job) to mistake an offensive lineman for an eligible receiver. With the benefit of the All-22 footage, can you shed more light on what happened on this play?
The rules state that you must have one eligible receiver (and only one) on the line of scrimmage on either side of the line. When the tight end and receiver on the same side are both on the line, that’s usually a penalty. However, the Panthers had confused the officials by lining up with an unbalanced line as you can see below.
Ben Hartsock (#84) is actually lined up at left tackle, but he’s an eligible receiver. The left tackle has moved over to right tight end, but because he’s ineligible, it doesn’t matter that he’s on the line. Had Steve Smith not lined up on the line of scrimmage, then it would have been an illegal formation because there is no eligible receiver on the line on that side. Similarly, if that were a normal offensive alignment, then there would be two violations because you’d have two eligible receivers on the line on the right and none on the left, because Brandon LaFell (#11) was off the line.
So, the officials were quite correct to reverse the decision.
Based on the look-to-the-future position the Jets are in, do you think they are best served by continuing with Winters at Guard? Has Winters shown you enough to think he might be part of the line next year, or do you think he is just too much a liability now and for the foreseeable future?
Look to the future? Now? It’s only just begun! [Fully aware that most of you won't get that reference, but hey, it's Christmas!]
Since they are in such a position, I’d argue that it makes MORE sense to play him than it did while they were still in contention. However, I’m more interested to see if they’re going to let Oday Aboushi, Will Campbell and/or Ben Ijalana get some reps.
I’m sure Winters will fare better next year. If he doesn’t someone will hopefully beat him out in camp.
In looking over the comments these past few weeks, their have been a number of different camps. The replace Rex Ryan/Keep Rex Ryan camp. The get rid of/bench/be patient Geno Smith camp. And, of course, “it’s the pieces camp”; we need two WRs, a TE, and OL. The draft a QB camp and, the sign a veteran FA QB camp. Almost forgot…Idzik is an idiot camp.
In looking over some other teams: Eli (5-9), Romo (7-7), Big Ben (6-8), Matt Ryan (4-10) would all be considered better QBs then Geno Smith…but their teams also have issues. So, it would appear Geno Smith is not the only problem.(Also, Andy Reid sucks with Eagles/Vick and is a “genius with Chiefs/A.Smith). Winning is “hard” in the NFL…….It seems that the answers are probably a combination of all these “camps”.
Question; which camp/camps do you fall in? Where do we go from here?
I always preach patience, but I can see arguments for anyone to feel strongly about these issues. The likes of Rex, Cromartie, Holmes, Sanchez could all be back next year or they could all be gone – and everything in between. I don’t agree with everything Idzik has done this year, but I understand the reasoning. I’ve had issues with certain things Rex Ryan has done over the years, but I know the players love him and I don’t think the team’s failing are all down to him. Getting better receivers could certainly help Smith, but that’s not going to suddenly give him pocket presence, the ability to read the field and perfect timing and accuracy overnight. As for drafting or signing another quarterback, they have to make improvements at the position. While Smith hasn’t been so bad that they should give up on him, he hasn’t been good enough that they can afford to pass on the right guy if the opportunity to get them presents itself.
It’s always a combination of things. Always.
On the 72 yard short pass to Williams I noticed some Jets players were blocked very well. Ive actually noticed it in other games too but not to the extent that Carolina showed. Is getting off blocks a product of Carolina being good at blocking or is it something the Jets are not good at?
I touched on this in the linebacker section, but Harris has always struggled to get off blocks. However, he’s been effective throughout his career when they’ve managed to keep him clean. Demario Davis is not quite as good at keeping him clean as Bart Scott was, but the defensive line has been so good that this hasn’t been as big of an issue so far this season.
An interesting way to investigate this statistically is via Football Outsiders’ run defense breakdowns. Last year, they had the Jets 6th best in the NFL at the second level, but 23rd in the open field. This year, they are 1st at the second level and 8th in the open field. That suggests to me they’ve done a better job of keeping their linebackers clean for the most part (and, yes, I realize that the play which this question references wasn’t even a running play).
metjetnet (aka miketaliaferro)
It certainly caught my eye that right after Kotwika’s group got torched, his name immediately crops up in stories about the open Army coaching job… Feelers from West Point? Jumping from the Jets? Being pushed from the Jets? Where’s that crack Jets beat media crowd when you need them? Off tweeting somewhere, I suppose…
I could definitely see Kotwica leaving after this year. His ties are with the old regime and, if it’s true what Mike Westhoff says that he’s been saddled with inferior personnel, then perhaps he would want to leave anyway, before doing any further damage to his reputation.
Do you think the special teams coach will be fired after the season? If they fire Rex and bring in a new guy?
If Rex goes, yes. If Rex stays, somewhere between maybe and probably.
metjetnet (aka miketaliaferro)
I’m tired of Wilson’s strutting & posing after his man falls down trying to reach another overthrown pass, as if Wilson himself had broken it up; and then he gets torched on the next play when the receiver CAN reach the pass. How many times have we seen Wilson trailing behind a receiver by 3+ yards up the middle of the field as the guy scores?
Wilson has been beaten for ZERO touchdown passes this year. He’s also had ZERO penalties other than that ridiculous Bills game where he had five. He’s in the top five for yards and receptions per coverage snap for slot corners. I get frustrated with some of his antics too, but he’s played better than he gets credit for and it’s surprising they’ve only ever used him in the nickel all season – he’s been on the outside 12.9% of the time, compared with 49.6% of the time last season. Then again, maybe that’s helped him be more consistent. Wilson still has one year left on his rookie deal.
The team seems to have good talent in the secondary but I feel like the young player’s growing pains and Cromartie’s crappy play (possibly due to injury) have made it seem like an overhaul is required. With the expected improvement from Milliner and Allen next year, can this secondary be “good” if the Jets get a healthy Cromartie at a much reduced price?
Absolutely, but I can’t see Cromartie and “much reduced price” getting mentioned together too often. He signed with CAA because he wanted Revis money. He’s not going to get close to that now, even though I agree with you that his poor performance has been influenced by his injury. It would be highly unexpected for him to suddenly accept a major paycut though. I think he’s gone and, unfortunately, his poor play means his contract is probably untradeable, so they’d have to make him a cap casualty. Obviously that would necessitate an overhaul of some description, although I do like some of the depth and potential they currently have.
It’s worth remembering that Wilson and Lankster had major roles on last year’s team (over 1,300 snaps, compared with less than 500 this year) where the secondary played well even without Revis. They obviously prioritized developing Milliner over putting in two guys with lower ceilings that had proven they could hold their own.
I don’t understand how sacks work. If Wilkerson tackled Cam Newton three yards behind the line of scrimmage, isn’t that a sack? Does he just get counted as a running back if he’s not actively trying the throw it?
It comes down to whether or not it’s a designed run. Newton never looked to pass, whereas if he’d sat in the pocket for a few seconds looking downfield and then taken off, it would have gone down as a sack. Running backs can actually be sacked if they look to pass downfield.
I wonder if Bent can compare effectiveness of plays when jets played a cover 2 vs less safety help.
The Jets weren’t able to run much cover two because the Panthers ran plenty of three, four and five wide receiver sets which forced the strong safety to match up, or the secondary to revert to a zone coverage. The Panthers attacked the cover two with a throw down the middle to LaFell for 36 yards and a couple of passes for more modest gains on the outside.
Did Geno have the ball to Holmes on time on that bad drop or did he wait too long to throw it?
Perfect timing and a concentration drop. That happens when you’re pressing to try and make an impact – Holmes was peeking downfield. The ball didn’t “eat him up” so I don’t think you could say he was not expecting it to be on time.
I don’t see how we wouldn’t benefit from Smith being a mobile QB. Geno has to work with the tools he has. Remember in the preseason when there were talks about running a pistol/read option offense? Why did we never even try to implement this, especially with guys like Kerley, Powell and Cribbs?
They have used plenty of pistol and read-option looks, but these have been special packages rather than an integral part of the offense. I agree with that approach, because they can be predictable and easy to gameplan against if you use them too much. Less is more. It does surprise me that they have Alex Green – a guy who played in a Pistol-based spread in college – but haven’t used him in those packages.
Can’t they just play the defense both ways? I bet Kenrick could do better at LG than Winters.
Best question of the week (even if it was meant to be rhetorical). Let’s do this.
So, at center, you’ve got Snacks, because a wise man once said that Rex Ryan should convert him to center and have him take over from Mangold. I agree with moving Kenrick to left guard, but at right guard, I’m going to cheat and put Will Campbell there, because he was a defensive tackle in college and hasn’t played in the NFL yet, so I’m entitled to bend the rules. The two tackles would be Wilkerson and Douzable … this isn’t going to be a finesse offense.
Wide receiver #1 should be Cromartie, because I still feel they should have persevered with that experiment. Since none of our other defensive backs seem to be capable of catching the ball, we’ll opt for 22 personnel (two tight ends and two backs in the backfield). Like I said, this isn’t going to be a finesse offense.
The fullback is obviously Sheldon “The Blast Chiller” Richardson and the gameplan will revolve around him getting a heavy workload to wear down the defense. I’d put Ed Reed in at tailback, although I wish he were three years younger when you knew there was a good chance of a touchdown every time he got the ball in his hands. I guess Kyle Wilson could be the change of pace back, not that I’d ever leave him in to block. For the two tight ends, the bigger blocking specialist would have to be Coples and the other could be Nick Bellore, who displayed his pass catching ability on that fake punt last season.
That leaves the quarterback. Since Dawan Landry is the quarterback of the secondary, he’s the obvious choice. He should be able to read the defense as well as anyone else and should only be handing the ball off most of the time anyway. Furthermore he was actually a high school quarterback and was recruited as a quarterback for Georgia Tech before redshirting and changing positions.
This doesn’t sound like an upgrade over the current incarnation?
PS – If Rex gets fired, you better believe I’m throwing my hat into the ring for a head coaching job.
Who is more likely to start next year…Geno or Sanchez?
Ugh…worst question of the week.
This time last year, it was impossible to imagine the Jets sticking with Sanchez for 2013, but with the injury and the passage of time, maybe the fans would be more amenable to that happening. It still seems unlikely though. I could see Sanchez starting elsewhere before Geno gets another start here though, assuming the Jets bring in another option for 2014.
Not sure I understand Rex’ logic on the blocked punt. We are SO worried that Ted Ginn Jr will return a punt for a TD that we alter the blocking for the punt (extra flyers per Rex). Kick it away from TGJ ?…kick it out of bounds ?…sure, these are not great options either. But, the worst one was what occurred. I think we (coaches) are overthinking the punt. Kick the freakin’ ball and get down the field, and make the tackle. That is what good teams do.
They’ve been so bad at getting down there, that I DO understand the logic. I don’t think they’re worried about Ted Ginn, just ANYONE. With that said, it was risky, but the Jets still had enough guys in there to prevent that rush and it was a screw-up by the blockers moreso than a bad call.
BGA – Bradysucks’s Game Analysis
Jets suck on offense
Jets suck at drafting on offense
Jets are a foolish organization to ignore the offense
The Jets fans want a team that can score points
That’s it for this week. Thank you for your great questions and comments. I’ll be back to preview the Browns game on Sunday morning.