BGA Extra: Raiders at Jets

Welcome to BGA Extra, where I draw a line under the previous weekend’s game by responding to your questions from Bent’s Game Analysis during the week. After the jump, I respond to your questions about the win over the Raiders. If you would like your questions answered in future, remember to read my BGA game breakdowns every Monday and leave your question in the comments section.

Jim Israel
Wouldn’t you trade right now Geno for McGloin straight up? I was really impressed with the Raider QB’s play.

That’s difficult to answer. Sure, McGloin is playing better right now, but to make a trade like that, you’d be thinking ahead 3-4 years, not just for this season, and it’s the kind of potential trade that if we revisit this question in three years, you could look like a genius for proposing it, or we’ll all be laughing at the thought.

I’m trying to think of a good and bad example of a trade that could theoretically have been proposed three years ago and how they would look in retrospect. How about this for a bad one? Offloading the disappointing Alex Smith for the promising youngster Josh Freeman. I’m not sure I can find a good one that doesn’t involve dumping Mark Sanchez.

WW85
One question: Geno Smith ran a spread offense in college. I thought spread QBs are good at getting the ball out quickly. Is it just because he doesn’t trust this group of receivers that he is so slow?

That may have something to do with it, but I think it’s more to do with the standard of the coverage. NFL players close so much faster and NFL defensive schemes have added complexity that college defenses do not.

DarrolRayFanClub
On the note of trusting his receivers to go where they should, was Geno doing just that on the play where Winslow held up and didn’t finish his route, and Geno’s pass appeared to thrown to nobody (and almost picked off)? Not sure if you can tell from coaches film. If Winslow was supposed to complete his route, I have no problem with that pass, as you noted — we want Geno trusting his guys and throwing without hesitation that they may screw up. INTs that are the receivers fault are obviously more acceptable in his growth.

I answered this in the comments, but I’ll reiterate here: While the announcer said Winslow stopped his route, what actually happened on that play was that the cornerback jumped in front and cut him off. At the same time, Geno was getting nailed, so he just fired it out without seeing that Winslow wouldn’t be able to get to the ball.

juunit
What were people’s thoughts about his celebrations after the TDs? I’m sure some people will see it as he’s finally got that weight off his shoulders. But I thought he overdid it, considering how bad he’s been, I don’t think he has the right to celebrate much. It actually looked like he was about to pull the Superman/Cam Newton after I think it was the first TD.

I know what you mean. It was especially surprising to see him celebrate so hard after the first touchdown which just looked like a happy accident. I think an MJ-style shrug would’ve been far more appropriate. I guess it’s tough to “act like you’ve done it before” when it’s so long since you’ve actually done it.

1969JAN12th
Can anybody figure out on Kerley’s TD…. how Kerley & Holmes ended up in the same place with three defenders?

I still think Kerley ran the wrong route and Smith underthrew Holmes.

spindoctor
I’m not sure that the TD pass was intended for Kerley — why would Smith throw to Kerley when the safety was closer to helping rather than Holmes who clearly had single coverage?

Exactly – and Holmes had a step too. The logical answer is that Kerley’s route was supposed to break to the inside, drawing the safety away, but even then the throw would have been underthrown and perhaps letting the cornerback back into the play. The only possible way I can see that Smith meant that is if he started to throw the ball and then realized Kerley would be able to catch a back shoulder throw. Even if that’s what happened (which I doubt), then it was an overthrow.

GhostofBrowningNagle
Did anyone else think the Kerley TD looked like it was intended for Holmes (with 3 Raiders in the area)?

Pretty much everyone thought that, as you can see.

a57se
I thought it was foolish to attempt that 51 yard FG in those conditions. The Jets had a 10 point lead and if Folk missed, it would give Oakland excellent field position at their own 41. Fortunately Folk made it with a yard or two to spare. Did you think it was a risky call given the conditions?

Risky, yes. Foolish might be a step too far. It’s merely a sign of how much Rex Ryan trusts Nick Folk (and his defense to maintain that lead). Maybe if they weren’t up 10, they’d have made a different decision.

NYC Parking Expert in Germany
While you don’t breakdown other teams like you do the Jets, you see at least one other team a week when you breakdown our game. Have you seen any other teams that have penalties not called against them as often as the Jets? Maybe all fans of every team feel like this, but every week I feel like I see blatant calls (mostly holding but others as well) not go our way. Simply my bias?

I also chart one non-Jets game per week, so I actually see three other teams. It’s difficult for me to be objective about how many calls go in favor of the Jets, but I will say this – there are a LOT of terrible calls every week and in every game. That’s true in most other sports too.

a57se
“With as consistent as their run defense is, it’s curious that the Jets would employ such a boom or bust secondary.”

An interesting observation from PFF and something we have discussed on this site before. Could you break down the Jets coverages for this game and their relative success?

I did talk about how the Jets varied up how often Antonio Cromartie was pressing and jamming at the line in the defensive backs BGA. What that does is allow the Jets to roll coverage away from him. Since Ed Reed has joined the team, the biggest change is that he plays deeper on average and more often than Dawan Landry used to as the free safety. Of course, another big change this week was that they ran some packages with Reed on the sideline. The announcers made reference to the fact that Reed was giving Milliner coverage support and Milliner’s improved play of late might be the biggest positive to come out of that move so far.

Perhaps it was worth it after all.

a57se
Was McIntyre the only guy who subbed in for the LB group?

Essentially, yes, although Richardson and Wilkerson had seven plays between them where they were standing up and you could consider Allen/Landry to be an “extra linebacker” on some packages. Jermaine Cunningham was inactive anyway, so Nick Bellore was the only other option they had. There’s more than enough flexibility within the front seven though.

NYC Parking Expert in Germany
Do you think Kenrick Ellis would be as effective if he were playing the majority of snaps, or might it be a case of him being very fresh and well-rested when he does play?

I do – although I agree that the fact he is fresh could have a positive effect on how consistently he performs. There are plenty of players around the league who have done well in limited action that could benefit from getting more snaps. The key with Ellis is that (for his position) he has been far better than everyone else in the same situation (+13.5 grade in 162 snaps, whereas the highest grade for anyone else with less than 250 snaps is +5.4).

An interesting re-read here from PFF shows their “deserve more snaps” all-star team from 2010 and scanning down the list, there are some players who did thrive in a bigger role, but there are others who did not.

Ellis has been dealing with a back injury all year and that’s the main reason his reps have been limited (along with Harrison’s outstanding play). So, unless that’s improving, it may be a situation where he can’t handle more reps and would struggle, but unless it happens, we can’t know that.

Ceifus Hornswoggle (aka Spent)
I wonder why the Raiders took Pryor out. He looked like he was giving the Jets defense problems. They weren’t ready for him and it showed. If I was the Raiders, I would’ve played him the rest of the game.

I touched on this in my game preview, but if you listened to Dennis Allen in the week leading up to the game, he dropped a few hints that Pryor might see action in this game. I don’t think they “took him out” so much as just always intended to give him one series and that was all.

a57se
The series where Oakland started on their own 2 Yard line and turned into the Reed pick was a head scratcher to me. Pryor had been the QB on the previous drive where they marched down the field and scored a FG and I was shocked to see McGloin come back in especially with the ball so deep in their own territory! Wouldn’t it of made more sense to put Pryor in and run out from your own goal line? Did you think this was weird when it happened?

I wasn’t surprised at all. When Pryor entered the game early, I knew it wasn’t going to be a benching for McGloin because it was too early for him to have done enough wrong. So, my initial thought was that I expected Pryor to get a series and that was proven correct. I was kinda surprised he didn’t return though. Maybe they scripted a certain number of plays for him and he used them all up on that extended drive, so if he’d have had a couple of drives that stalled, he would have returned.

1969JAN12th
So we have seen the data that when Geno runs for over 20 yds or more, the team is 4-0. Of course the downside is that each time Geno takes off their is the possibility of injury. However, it seems to me that sitting in the pocket with 300 + pound DL hoping to crush you is no picnic either. Of the QBs that have been injured, is their any data that shows that QBs that take off are more vulnerable to getting hit bad and becoming injured…or do we only remember the QBs that did run and get hit (ie: RG III)? Do you think that Marty should put in more read option plays for Geno?

I like the read option for an occasional different look, but the real benefit from Geno gaining rushing yards is when he takes off and makes yardage when there’s nothing on for him down the field.

As I noted before the Bills game, there was a strong correlation between the use of the wildcat and the success of the Jets, but you can’t force it, just like you can’t enter a game with a mindset of rushing the ball 40-50 times, because that will just force you to change your plans when they load up against it and put you in passing situations.

NYC Parking Expert in Germany
Gannon said during the game that whenever Geno audibles, they run. I imagine this is hard to verify because sometimes he may fake audible, but I did notice after this that each time I thought he audibled, they ran. Any thoughts?

That has seemed to be the case, although – as you say – who knows what’s an audible and what isn’t? It was exactly the same with Sanchez. I wouldn’t be surprised if Smith is limited in the audibles he can call (as Sanchez presumably was). Maybe he can audible from a pass to a run or a run to a different run.

djf1 (aka Disgruntled Jets Fan)
What surprised you the most about this game?

I was promised there would be cake!

R_in_CT
I’m curious if Geno’s performance was based on him stepping up or the Raiders falling down … or a combination of both.

It’s always a combination of reasons when you get a question like this. I’m excited to get a question about falling down that didn’t reference Brian Winters though.

Beamen321
Why hasn’t any of the beat “reporter” asked Rex or Morninwig about why Winters is still playing yet?!

(Nodding).

karlhungus
How bad must the rest of the 800 OL we have on the roster be if none of them can beat out Winters right now?

(Afraid to say anything).

Brendan
Is Chris Ivory worth a 4th rounder yet?

Yup, these are my readers.

Wait…what just happened?

>>>

That’s it for this week. Thank you for your great questions and comments. I’ll be back to preview the Panthers game on Sunday morning.




16 comments
djf1
djf1

what other nfl games do you chart?

djf1
djf1

I'm  sorry,  we're all out of cake.


omw1
omw1

How about this for a bad trade... the promising 4th round selection Aaron Brooks for the somewhat disappointing 2nd round pick Drew Brees circa 2002/2003?

1969JAN12th
1969JAN12th

Well done Bent as usual.;a little analysis, a little humor, and always  interesting.... especially after a win

Jeff E. Guy
Jeff E. Guy

Holy %#!&. I was just telling my wife about this guy named Bent and how he watches an amazing amount of game film. Now I discover that he charts two teams, not just the Jets....

NYCPEinGermany
NYCPEinGermany

Thanks for listing my full name with my questions. U da man

Bent
Bent

@djf1 It varies from week to week.  Last week I did the Pats game, which is lame but at least it gives me a look at the Browns for the purposes of the BGA preview in a couple of weeks.

a57se
a57se

What are you talking about?

a57se
a57se

Do you help Sam with his reviews?

Bent
Bent

@me He's giving an example of where I was looking for a QB trade that would look reasonable at the time but bad in hindsight as per the first question.


That's not bad - and Brees was one I considered.

a57se
a57se

Oh, OK, that conversation is from yesterday!

Brees would have gotten to New Orleans a little sooner!


How about Browning Nagle after his first game to Atlanta for Brett Favre!