BGA: On the nose

During the 2013 offseason, there was plenty of uncertainty over the Jets nose tackle position. Not only was Sione Po’uha – who had been hampered by a back injury throughout the 2012 season – released, but the Jets also lost Mike DeVito to the Chiefs. DeVito had provided the team with a backup option at the nose tackle position while also starting at defensive end.

In order to address this, the Jets signed Chargers veteran Antonio Garay, who had been outstanding in 2011 and played pretty well in 2012 despite missing the start of the season. While the Jets were perhaps hoping that 2011 third round pick Kenrick Ellis would step into a starting role, it was actually 2012 undrafted free agent Damon Harrison who stepped up. With Ellis injured in preseason and only able to play in one game, Harrison made the most of the opportunity to start and deservedly hung onto the job all year with Ellis backing him up. An unimpressive Garay was unable to make the final roster.

After the jump, a look at some numbers and analysis for these this pairing as we aim to project where their careers could be headed over the next few seasons.

2013 Recap

Harrison, having barely played as a rookie, started all 16 games and was outstanding against the run all season. Ellis was still bothered by a back injury for most of the first half of the season, but did play in every game (although he was limited to just one snap in the win over New England.) Pro Football Focus projected Ellis as the Jets’ “Secret Superstar” last month as he was also impressive against the run:

He ended up making 17 run stops on 114 run snaps on the season, which gave him a Run Stop Percentage of 14.9%. Over the last six years, John Henderson in 2010 was the only defensive or nose tackle with at least 100 snaps against the run and a better Run Stop Percentage. He was also 1.7% better than the second-best defensive tackle in Run Stop Percentage; teammate Damon Harrison.

Harrison also received plenty of recognition from them as he was named in the top 100 players of 2013:

Acting as an early-down run-plugging machine, Harrison couldn’t be moved at the point of attack and had the playmaking ability to shed blocks and make a ridiculous amount of stops around the line of scrimmage. [He] comfortably finished the year our top-ranked defensive tackle against the run […]

To some extent, the production from Ellis is a by-product of the fact that he often enters the game in run-stopping situations and also from the fact that he doesn’t play as many snaps, keeping him fresh. However, there are plenty of players out there with a similar role and only one of them can lead the league. Ellis also had the highest grade for his position on a per-play basis.

Another argument I’ve seen is that the run stop percentage could be higher than you’d expect for these players as a result of the other strong players on the line. That’s a fair question to ask, but still there are plenty of talented defensive lines around the league. In third place was rookie Star Lotulelei who of course plays on a top-level defense with a great front seven and two excellent defensive ends. Just behind them are players from the Seahawks, Cardinals and Bills – again teams with depth and talent on the line. However, even though it’s true to some extent that they benefited from the abilities of their teammates, they extent to which Ellis and Harrison were able to exploit this and generate stops was better than everyone else.

The question of whether or not certain players are being double-teamed more than others and how this affects the value of their contribution is something that fascinates me and I’m already in the process of compiling data for a multi-part series on that topic. Until that research is completed, we can only speculate about whether the likes of Harrison and/or Ellis would fare if they moved to another team, perhaps with less front seven talent.

On that topic, you can cite both positive and negative examples of players that moved from one team to another and how they fared. Garay, for example, had played well with the Chargers, but couldn’t even make the Jets roster despite the talent around him. Maybe that was just due to his age though. DeVito is an example of someone who left the Jets where he was surrounded by talented players but was still productive with his new team. However, the Chiefs defense was revitalized last year under Bob Sutton, so there was plenty of talent around him. At this point you risk getting into a chicken-egg argument about whether a player makes the players around him better or vice versa.

One final thought on this could be that the strategy employed by the Jets enables the Jets’ nose tackles to make more plays than usual. During preseason there was concern over the fact that the Jets might struggle to set the edge, but in the end that wasn’t a major issue as both Calvin Pace and Quinton Coples held their own in this regard. However, funneling runs back to the middle was clearly a priority for the team, as I noted in preseason that they were employing safeties on the outside and even sometimes getting one of their inside backers to run-blitz outside the tackles to ensure outside contain. In fact, that might be part of the reasoning of employing a bigger player like Coples on the outside.

The Dynamic Duo

Clearly Harrison and Ellis provide the Jets with an excellent one-two punch. If a fresh Ellis can spell Harrison and produce at the same kind of rate, that’s an ideal situation for the Jets. Rich Cimini had a good stat that suggests Ellis even provided the run defense with a boost when entering the game:

In a backup role, he became a force against the run. With the 6-foot-4, 340-pound Ellis in the game, the Jets allowed only 2.59 yards per rush, according to NFL stats. Without him, they yielded 3.40 — a team-high 0.81 differential.

This begs the question; Should they be trying to get Ellis on the field more? While I would certainly not advocate for a reduction in the snap count for Harrison, it might be good to reduce the reps for Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson. Wilkerson played more snaps than any other 3-4 DE in the league and Richardson was not far behind in 7th.

So, how did Harrison and Ellis fare when they did play together? This will give us some idea as to whether they could run some more 4-3 packages with them paired together inside (possibly with the weakside end standing up).

Opposing teams ran 48 times with the pair of them in the game, gaining just 103 yards. That’s 2.1 yards per carry, which compares well with the numbers above. However, context is important here.

First of all, that includes seven kneel-downs for the loss of eight yards. Excluding those plays from the numbers gives us 41 carries, 111 yards and a 2.7 yards per carry average. The reason I’ve given you both is that it’s not clear from Cimini’s statistic above whether kneel-downs are excluded from the data. I believe they are, because the NFL’s official site lists the Jets average per carry as 3.35 which would account for a slight drop due to kneel-downs. For the record, there were four other kneel-downs with Harrison but not Ellis on the field.

The next thing to consider is the situation. Many of these plays were short yardage plays, some of which were at the goal line. This can artificially bring down a yards per carry average because a short gain is still a successful play. Having said that, the Jets only surrendered two touchdowns with Ellis and Harrison both in the game and their goal line defense was very efficient all year. They also had some other big third or fourth and short stops with them both in there.

The other situation in which they were employed together was mainly when the other team was ahead and the Jets were expecting them to run the ball to keep the clock moving. Again, that perhaps reduces the degree of difficulty for stopping the run. However, there were two breakdowns in the Tennessee and Carolina games in this situation, leading to game clinching 20 and 18 yard runs, without which the averages per carry would have been much lower.

On the basis of these numbers, it seems like a package with both of them inside could be effective on first and second down, although they might need to look back at those two breakdowns to clear one or two things up. One concern with this lineup might be that a team could opt to attack it through the air and maybe even go into a no-huddle and spread the defense out. Harrison and Ellis have both impressed me with their ability to drive a pass-protector back, but I think a package with both of them in there would be less disruptive in terms of getting into the backfield.

One further concern, although this may just be a statistical anomaly, is that the Jets were 0-7 when the pair of them were in the game for more than one running play. They were 3-1 in four games where they just had one goal line play together each and 5-0 where they did not play together against the run. As noted, some of this work came in situations where they were losing. However, that doesn’t completely explain it. 24 of the 41 carries with them both in were in the fourth quarter, only half of which were inside the last three minutes.

What can we learn from 2007?

As noted in earlier columns, I’ve recently been charting games from the 2007 season and some of the things I observed have unexpectedly provided some different perspectives on issues relevant to the current team. That’s also the case for the nose tackle position, where we can make an interesting contrast between the two teams.

The first thing to note is that Eric Mangini’s team (with Sutton as defensive coordinator) would employ a base defense far more often that the current Jets team does. Starter DeWayne Robertson actually played in subpackages too, but his backup, Po’uha, was solely employed in base. This meant he was lined up over the center over 90% of the time and mostly two-gapping. By contrast, Ellis and Harrison each played less than 25% of their snaps as a pure nose tackle. There would also have been some 4-3 reps at defensive tackle where they lined up over the center as a 3-4 nose tackle would, but at the same time there were plenty of times where they’d line up in the A or B gap. If they were in the game together, then obviously this would necessitate one or both of them to not be opposite the center.

I can recall arguing with people on TJB during the 2007 season who would insist that Robertson was “constantly on rollerskates”. While obviously miscast in a two-gapping role, I felt he held his ground well and mixed in enough gap-shooting plays to make an overall positive contribution. Having rewatched these games, I stand by that and the PFF grades for the season agree, as he received a positive grade for run defense. His true value was in the passing game though, where he did a consistently solid job of being disruptive in the pocket and putting up good pass rush numbers with a few stand-out performances.

It’s more interesting to look at Po’uha’s role though. I can freely admit that I got this one wrong. My sense on Po’uha was that he had struggled in 2007 and only really started to turn the corner in 2008. However, looking back at the games in 2007, he was really starting to emerge as a solid contributor and providing excellent production against the run. especially over the second half. Po’uha was basically playing the exact same role that Ellis played last season, usually playing 10-20 snaps a game (although he did exceed this three times) with the second unit.

Po’uha’s run stop percentage for the year, with the data having been compiled by PFF since their comments on Ellis higher up was a staggering 21.2%. In the PFF era, 16.1% was the previous best for anyone with over 100 run snaps in a season.

This is noteworthy for a couple of reasons. First of all, perhaps Mangini deserves more of the credit for initially developing Po’uha that Ryan typically gets. Secondly, its pours cold water on the suggestion that nose tackles who put up big numbers in that category are only doing so because of the players around them. That Jets team had no pro bowlers (apart from kick returner Justin Miller) and they struggled defensively most of the year, finishing up 4-12. In fact, when Po’uha entered the game, he usually rotated in with other backups, including the rookie DeVito. Finally, since Po’uha led the league in this category in a backup role, maybe it gives us an insight into the development path Ellis might be able to follow.

Po’uha remained a backup in 2008 as the Jets signed PFF’s top DT from 2007, Kris Jenkins, with a three-down nose tackle being an obvious need with Robertson leaving. When Jenkins was injured in 2009 and 2010, Po’uha started in his place and did an outstanding job. He also played well in 2011 before his injury plagued 2012 season. Po’uha was 28 in 2007 while Ellis will turn 27 this December.

Po’uha did see his production increase down the stretch, especially in the penultimate game against the Titans, where he had seven stops in 31 snaps. Part of the reason for that might have been that he was often in the game when Shaun Ellis was moved to outside linebacker (which I referenced in last week’s article on Coples). As I noted above, perhaps part of the reason certain nose tackles are productive is because runs are being funneled back to the inside and that’s something that putting a bigger player like Shaun Ellis on the outside could lead to.

Contractual Situation

At the end of the season, (Kenrick) Ellis will be an unrestricted free agent, whereas Harrison will be a restricted free agent. The Jets will need to weigh up cost, potential compensation and value to the team when deciding how to approach this.

Looking at Po’uha’s situation, he signed a three-year extension after that 2007 season while entering the final year of his four-year rookie deal. In that respect, he’s basically in the same position contractually as Ellis. Po’uha’s extension was tacked onto the end of his rookie deal, basically giving him a four year contract for $7m. If the Jets could re-sign Ellis to a deal in that ballpark, that would be ideal. However, we’ve got seven years of inflation and the fact that Ellis is slightly younger to factor in, so that might be on the low side. If Ellis wants to earn a decent-sized contract, he may need to show he can be a full-time starter first and if Harrison remains on the team, his best chance of getting that opportunity could be to let his contract expire and then seek a short term deal elsewhere. However, there’s always a risk that you can get that bigger deal much like Po’uha did in 2012, but then end up not seeing most of the money.

It will be interesting to see what the Jets decide to do with Harrison and whether there is a market for him if he receives a high restricted free agency tender. I’m sure the Jets would like to lock up one or both of their nose tackles, but they perhaps still have to prove that they can repeat or even emulate last year’s performance first.

Conclusions

The Jets are in a nice position with two nose tackles who – regardless of who deserves the most credit – were both extremely productive against the run last year. However, the clock is ticking.

It’s clear there are several factors that go into nose tackle performance and numbers alone (as usual) do not tell the whole story. As the Jets look ahead to the point where they’ll need to decide what to do with these two players, it isn’t going to be easy to weigh up all these factors and make an informed decision.

If Harrison and Ellis both give another outstanding performance in 2014 to make that task even harder for the Jets, I guess that wouldn’t be the worst thing that could happen to this team.




51 comments
a57se
a57se

Bent, you are in for a treat! Best show on TV later today!

Pablo Bruno
Pablo Bruno

If we lose Ellis or Coples, it really wouldn't be a huge loss, they weren't very productive and considering that our scouts have done a great job at bring in quality d line talent, it wouldn't be an issue. We may even find more productive guys.

marcus81
marcus81

Harrison over Ellis if one stays, this is the problem with drafting mostly defense every year, you have to have a balanced team on both sides of the ball, offense is not guaranteed to be good even with Decker, Johnson and Amaro added, the offense could have been built up more the last few years, instead of putting most of the talent on one side of the ball

ganggrncap
ganggrncap

True eye opener Bent!  Superb BGA!

boomer
boomer

>>Anybody notice how the Pats love signing ex-Jets but the Jets never sign ex Pats!


Ah, wut?


Cutis Martin says talk to the hand.

bradysucks
bradysucks

Enjoy this season. I know I will because there is no way the Jets can afford to keep all the d-line talent they have together. Appreciate this group - they are special!

Anybody notice how the Pats love signing ex-Jets but the Jets never sign ex Pats! Guys like Revis, Woodhead, S Ellis, James Id.... Etc are all swooped up by the Pats but the Jets literally never sign ex Patriots....

I could see Coples or K Ellis on the Pats - hate to say it - but it is what the Pats do and the Jets can't keep everybody

Alec Wilson
Alec Wilson

we need to find more inside pass rush.....

harold
harold

Excellent insight!

jaygo
jaygo

Good piece, thanks

levi
levi

It would be great to keep them both on the team but not likely to happen. I worry about Harrisons knees with a man that size at the position it takes a heavy toll on the knees. Its nice to know Ellis is there if Harrison gets hurt but I think Ellis knows he could start on other teams so I dont see him sticking around.

Bent
Bent moderator

Oh...and in my next BGA in this series, I'll be looking at Brian Winters.

marcus81
marcus81

@Pablo Bruno  don't tell some of the guys here Coples isn't that great, you'll get an earful, what sucks about losing Coples is that he was a high first rounder and probably should be traded if Jets might not be able to keep him

Bent
Bent moderator

@Hanknaples


"I can't understand why you continue to hold onto your argument that Ellis can spell Harrison if he is fresh. " 


This is something that actually happened last year, so I can't understand why you refuse to accept this.  It's not an "argument" I literally just described how the used him and what the outcome was.


"First of all if Ellis started..."


But nobody was talking about Ellis starting?  Oh well, carry on...


"... we would see what we saw in 2011 when he was pushed around case in particular against the Denver Broncos who used Tebow to run the ball down the jets throats. That was with Devito, Ropati, and Wilkerson all a part of the defensive line. "


Interesting choice of game.  Ellis was in on just seven running plays which netted 19 yards and zero first downs.  He had two tackles and graded out positively.  You're making him a scapegoat for a game where he did his job.  In any case, Ellis is twice the player he was as a rookie, so again this is an odd example.


"We would see what started Ellis injury history against the Houston Texans when the left guard cut blocked and injured Ellis."  


People get injured all the time, especially by illegal blocks.  Not sure that we should give up on him because that happened once.


"Ellis is simply not strong enough to take on double teams against the opponents starting offensive line in the beginning of the game and be relied upon to dominate in the trenches."


I know you don't like Ellis for some reason, but I have to break this to you.  He's pretty strong.


"I don't see where Coples has held up his end on the edge. He still cannot set the edge properly. "


Teams don't lead the league in rush defense most of the year with a guy who "cannot set the edge properly" playing 80% of the snaps at OLB.


"He is a liability in coverage." 


He's given up 12 yards in coverage 30 career games.  That's 0.4 yards per game.  I think other teams would have done a better job of exploiting a "liability"


"His injury like Geno Smith's last year was a direct result that his physical  abilities have been matched by his opponents physical abilities and their techniques and by his own physical limitations." 


He rolled his ankle recovering a fumble and broke his foot, what are you talking about?


"A player like Coples who has played in the trenches his whole life should not be removed from the trenches to play standing up and go back in coverage." 


Correct.  Which is why he won't be.


"He is now a linebacker as evidenced by the weight loss and the way Rex Ryan scheme has made a role for him."


No, the weight loss means he can play on the edge rather than on the interior.  The role Rex has made for Coples is the RUSH LINEBACKER role which still requires him to mostly rush the quarterback and has hardly any direct coverage responsibilities.


You should stop criticizing Rex for making Coples do something he's not making him do and Coples for being unable to do something he's not required to do.

Bent
Bent moderator

@bradysucks 


"Literally never"


What about Ras-I Dowling, Jermaine Cunningham, Zach Sudfeld, Marcus Zusevics, AJ Edds and Greg Salas?

levi
levi

@Bent I will be interested to hear how Barnes is progressing because I dont think we will be able to keep Ellis.

Pablo Bruno
Pablo Bruno

@marcus81 @Pablo Bruno I wouldn't wait till his contract is up, I would trade him to see what teams can give in return, how is it in the stock market business buy low sell high? lol, we used a first round pick, but his contract now is nowhere near what he should get as a vet, so we bought low, now we need to sell high on both guys, I'm sure there are alot of coaches who are willing to bet that those two players will make major impact on their teams. Who knows, I wouldn't mind seeing if we traded those two guys for the overall 1st round pick or even for a guy like Josh Gordon if the jets coaches feel they can straighten him out.

bradysucks
bradysucks

Scrubs

So the Jets sign Patriots garbage

And the Pats sign Jets productive talent

Who are those guys you named ????

A bunch of scrubs

Nobody productive from the Pats ever switches sides in the rivalry

The Jets guy who are productive become Pats and it could easily happen with Coples & K Ellis - hate to say it -but true

Bent
Bent moderator

@levi @Bent Well, nobody was saying "I don't think we will be able to keep Pouha" back in 2007 and they're essentially in the same situation.

NYCPEinGermany
NYCPEinGermany

@bradysucks

"Nobody productive from the Pats ever switches sides in the rivalry"


Curtis Martin?


I realize that was a while ago, but you did say 'ever'

Bent
Bent moderator

@bradysucks


"Who are those guys you named ????

A bunch of scrubs

Nobody productive from the Pats ever switches sides in the rivalry"


You named four people.  Revis, who didn't go from the Jets to the Pats, Ellis, who like Brendan says was at the end of his career and surplus to requirements, Digs who had zero starts in his Jets career and Woodhead who was never a productive player for the Jets. 


Cunningham and Dowling have started 15 games between them for the Pats so they are much better examples of "a productive player" than Digs, who had like 11 tackles on defense in four seasons as a Jet.


The reason I named those guys is because they are on the current roster and 4 or 5 of them could end up contributing this year.  Obviously you said "never" so we could go back to some previous years for better examples.

Brendan
Brendan

@bradysucks Revis is an ex-Buc, Ellis was in the twilight of his career, Digs had a 133 QB rating against in his lone year in NE. 


You were wrong, and you're still wrong. The Jets sign plenty of ex-Pats, the incestual relationship between these teams is very well known. 


And "easily can happen with Coples & Ellis" is literally 100% baseless speculation, a theory that you use to gripe. It's the worst tactic of the self-hating Jet fan. 

a57se
a57se

@Bent @levi 

I have wanted us to extend Ellis since January...I hope Idzik gets something done.

levi
levi

@Bent  I hope you are right but my main concern is Ellis. I would want more play time if I were him and he could get it elsewhere so I think he will test the market and probably get an offer he likes more than what he has in NY.

bradysucks
bradysucks

Rex and Tannenbaum didn't give Woodhead an opportunity

They blew it and it is foolish to deny this

bradysucks
bradysucks

I'm not wrong

The Jets never sign productive ex- Patriots

The Pats do sign productive ex- Jets

Fact

Bent
Bent moderator

@a57se @Bent @levi I'd be thrilled if that's what they announced but if I was Ellis' agent, I would probably resist any attempts to sign a low-level extension.


Harrison being an RFA at the same time muddies the waters somewhat.  I wonder which shoe will drop first.

Bent
Bent moderator

@levi @Bent I agree with you, Levi.  Wouldn't it be awesome to keep the gang together though?

tsjc68
tsjc68

@levi @Bent Yeah, I think while there's parallels between Po'uha in the winter of 2008 and Ellis this winter, they're not quite similar enough to truly compare.


Ellis is two years younger than Po'uha was, Ellis was a high draft pick (while Bo was a UDFA), and Ellis has been part of an elite DL while Bo was the backup to the fairly lowly-regarded (at the time) Robertson, who had some bust whiff circling around him, and Bo was seen as "just" a run-stuffer while Ellis has more pass-rush potential at nose.


And Bo was a Mangini guy, while Ellis is a Ryan guy.  That raises Ellis's cache as well, I think.


I think Kenrick Ellis probably has a higher profile as a "I could steal him away and give him a starting job" right now than Po'uha did after the 2007 season.  Po'uha took a low mid-level 4yr/7M extension because there probably wasn't that big of a market for his services, while Ellis probably could convince at least a team or two to bet on him as an undervalued current starter who only isn't starting already because he's on a loaded Jets roster.


Look at the deals that guys like Arthur Jones (5yr/30M), Earl Mitchell (4yr/16M), Ziggy Hood (4yr/16M), Clinton McDonald (4yr/12M), Vance Walker (3yr/13.75M), and Antonio Smith (2yr/9M) got this winter.  Those guys weren't yet "established" starters, just high-quality rotational guys, but they all found teams willing to give them starter money and starter roles.

NYCPEinGermany
NYCPEinGermany

@Dr. Jonathan Reefer @NYCPEinGermany @bradysucks

yup. Plus, I don't see the biggee in them signing shaun ellis a year too late, woodhead after we waived him (and truth be told he was never gonna be much here with sanchez throwing at him) and now mevis and his baggage. 

Eh.


great new avatar, btw

levi
levi

@bradysucks I believe we had a very good run game without Woodhead. As you said we cant keep everybody. Also apparently Shotty couldnt figure out how to use him.

Bent
Bent moderator

@bradysucks


What if the Jets will benefit from Dowling or Cunningham or Edds or Zusevics or Sudfeld or Salas not getting an opportunity?


You can't call these guy scrubs and then pretend that Danny Woodhead's resume was any better than any of these guys when he left the Jets while referring to him as a "productive player".

Brendan
Brendan

@bradysucks  Changing your hypothesis is proof positive that you were, in fact, initially wrong. Arguing semantics now shows that pretty clearly. 


And if you want to talk about ex-Pats, the Jets win the entire war with Curtis Martin and Bill Parcells alone. Give it up, you're not making a point here. 

levi
levi

@Bent Absolutely! I also have concerns about keeping the starting D line together. Maybe not so much Coples unless he turns it on this year but wilkerson and Richardson will be costly to keep.

Bent
Bent moderator

@tsjc68 @levi @Bent


No, Po'uha was a third rounder, the same as Ellis.  And the fact Po'uha was two years older is offset somewhat by the fact he took a two year mission and therefore had less "tread on the tires".


I wonder if PFF had been around at the time would the likes of Robertson and Pouha been perceived (and maybe compensated) differently?


bradysucks
bradysucks

Not the point

Point is Coples, Snacks, or Ellis could be on the Pats soon

Appreciate them while they are wearing green. Jets can't pay everybody

I'd love to see the Jets sign a productive ex Patriot but it NEVER happens. Jets will let anybody sign with the Pats

We all know this

juunit
juunit

@Bent @tsjc68 @levi 

I believe you mean more tread on the tires. Less tread would mean the tires need to be replaced sooner than later. 

Brendan
Brendan

@bradysucks Or a Dolphin. Or a Ram. Or a Titan. Or a ______. 


Firstly, the idea that this group is on the verge of being disassembled is kind of ridiculous. The team holds the rights for Coples and Sheldon for many more years (5th year option, etc.), they can keep Ellis/Harrison if they want (they are in the 2nd best cash position in the entire league moving forward). But, ignoring those facts and pretending "ZOMG this group will never be the same!" is real...the idea that they're destined to go to the Pats is just your Chicken Little complex poking its head out. 


Putting "we all know this" at the end of a post where you're repeating your false comments is actually kind of insulting. 


What we do all know is that you're wrong, well, "we" with the exception of you. 

levi
levi

@bradysucks Are you seriously getting worked up because a player the Jets may or may not be able to keep may or may not be signed by the Patriots? Jesus calm down theres 30 other teams that might get them too IF we dont keep them.

Bent
Bent moderator

@bradysucks The Jets, with their enormous amounts of cap space are much more likely to be able to pay "everybody" than the Pats, who are capped out for this year already and currently have $50m more committed to the 2015 cap than the Jets do.

levi
levi

@Brendan The Pats cant have much cap space anyway...

bradysucks
bradysucks

I am not worked up at all

I'm just saying enjoy the d-line this year

Likelihood of keeping this group together isn't good (a shame)

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