BGA: 2012 Salary Cap Update 2.0 – Peyton Manning Edition

Previously on BGA…

When I last did a salary cap update, I talked about the amount of flexibility the Jets had to create space to make one or two low or mid-level moves to upgrade the team without having to release many (if any) key contributors. Since then, not much has changed.

The Jets did restructure D’Brickashaw Ferguson’s contract, deferring the maximum amount of money possible without changing the amounts due to him into future years. Also, they retained Wayne Hunter, guaranteeing him $2.5m, although they still have the ability to restructure his deal so that his cap hit for the year is reduced by $1m. The decision to tender Aaron Maybin at the original round level is also relevant, because that will use up about $1m of additional cap space, assuming he plays out the year on the one-year tender.

One other thing that might change is the salary cap threshold itself. All our previous projections were on the basis of $120,500,000 – based on last year’s cap of $120,375,000 but rounded up to make things easier to represent with round numbers. Previous reports were that the cap was only expected to rise slightly, if at all, but recent reports suggest the union and NFL are working together to reclassify how they’ve accounted for non-salary benefits in order to increase the allocation to be spread between teams for salary this year. Obviously the union wants a higher cap, but it’s in the league’s interest too, because it shows they gave the players a good deal. I wouldn’t expect a major rise and from the sounds of it, there may still not be a rise, but either way, I expect we’ll find out tomorrow. I’m going to stick with $120,500,000 but even an incremental rise from there will be valuable for the Jets and their cap flexibility.

One other thing I’d like to note is that multiple sources are reporting that teams have three $1.5m exemptions to enable them to retain veteran players. This is incorrect and it is three $500,000 exemptions that they have, and then that money will be added back to their cap commitments in 2014-2017. This is the oft-referenced option to “borrow” $1.5m from future cap years (with most teams already having used three $1m exemptions to “borrow” $3m last year), so be wary of anyone who (a) double-counts that and (b) uses $4.5m instead of $1.5m.

So, for a detailed outlook on the Jets’ cap situation, go back and look at that link and bear the above information in mind. Today, we’re focusing entirely on one man…and another, slightly younger man.

How Can the Jets Pay Peyton?

By popular demand (and inspired by a lot of the misinformation flying around at the moment), I’m going to, for once, set aside the on-field and medical reasons for signing or not signing Peyton Manning and look into how it might work financially.

A lot of people are asking how the Jets can possibly sign Manning to a deal that might be upwards of $20m per year when they only have current estimated cap space of just under $8m (without even accounting for Maybin, Pouha and the rookies). The answer is twofold. First of all, they can create additional space and secondly, they can structure the contract so that the current year cap hit isn’t that high. Obviously that means future cap hits will be high, but they have some scope to deal with that with some veteran contracts off the books after this year and the cap set to rise in 2014.

The key is Mark Sanchez. If the Jets were to cut him, they’d create over $9m of cap room. Some people are saying that there would also be $5m of dead money, but the $9m takes that into account (his $14m cap hit comes off the books and the dead money is $5m). The situation is the same if he was traded and I was surprised to hear that Adam Schefter was suggesting his value could be as high as a first rounder or two second rounders, although the timing could be a problem and might give the other team the leverage to talk the price down in order to get a quick “sale”. In any case, that $9m should give them easily enough cap room to make a reasonable offer for Manning’s services.

In the comments, I was asked what sort of contract I thought Manning would command and I came up with this masterpiece (if I do say so myself) for a possible opening offer from the Jets:

4 years – 75m

Year one – 10m signing bonus, 10m incentives, 2.5m salary (CAP HIT 5m)
Year two – 7.5m salary, 5m incentives (CAP HIT 25m assuming he met the incentive in year one)
Year three – Salary 12.5m, 5m incentives (CAP HIT 20m)
Year four – Salary 17.5m, 5m roster bonus (CAP HIT 25m)

If he got injured in the first year, they could release him in year two with 7.5m of dead money and his 7.5m salary coming off the books. If he got injured in the second year and missed the incentives, they’d get a 5m cap credit to offset the 5m of dead money if they cut him in year three. A cap hit of 25m in 2013 seems rough, but with Sanchez and Pace coming off the books, there’s some scope, plus they could restructure to reduce it by 4-5m or extend the deal if he does well in the first year.

The reason his initial cap hit is so low is because (a) the signing bonus is spread over four years and (b) the incentives you are using would be NLTBE (not likely to be earned). NLTBE incentives don’t count against the cap unless you earn them, in which case, the cap hit bites the following year. Since Manning didn’t play in 2011, any incentive parameter they set (eg 25 TD passes) would be NLTBE because he did not meet it in the previous year. You would not be allowed to set these ridiculously low (ie 1,000 passing yards for the season), because the league would see through that, but as long as they were reasonable, but Manning still felt confident of attaining them, then this could work for both parties.

If Manning’s demands escalated to upwards of $20m per year, you could scale the above contract upwards accordingly, with the 2012 cap hit able to rise to $9 before you’d have to start cutting and restructuring others to create more room. If he did accept a deal like the one detailed above, you’ve created over $4m of additional cap room. That’s more than the year one cap hit on Santonio Holmes’ contract, so they could theoretically add another $10m per year player and still have the same amount of cap room they did before cutting Sanchez, not that this would be advisable with all the money they’re already loading into future years.

The advantage of the above deal is that if Manning gets a career ending injury at any point, the Jets can get out of the deal without killing their cap too badly. In reality, the Jets would probably use the rolling bonuses they applied to Ferguson’s contract rather than NLTBE incentives after the first year.

What About Keeping Sanchez?

The next question becomes whether they could create the same cap room without letting Sanchez go. The easy answer is no, which is why Mario Williams is not really an option for this team. However, almost anything is possible with the salary cap and the Jets could release several veterans to create the same amount of room. That would not be advisable though, with the lack of depth they already have in some areas.

Unless Sanchez is prepared to take a really big pay cut for a couple of year or the Jets are able to trade guys like Bart Scott and Santonio Holmes, I don’t see this as a viable option.

One issue that might be giving the Jets added pause is the fact that if they choose to go ahead with Sanchez, they’re probably going to have to restructure his contract to create cap space to fit other needs around him. The problem with that is that is basically means he will have a huge cap hit no matter what in 2013, so they will be committing to him for the next two years, so this isn’t a “let’s give him one more year and then let him go” scenario.

Conclusions

If they release Mark Sanchez, I believe that gives the Jets the flexibility to offer Manning a reasonable market-level deal that he would be likely to accept if keen to play here. Any talk that this would cause them to gut their team or miss out on other moves is not necessarily accurate because it’s theoretically possible for them to add Manning and still have an amount of cap space left over from the Sanchez saving that would be similar to the amount they’d have created by retaining him and restructuring his deal.

It would definitely tighten things up in future years, but it’s possible that they can replace Manning with Sanchez and still make all the moves they were planning to make during the offseason and comply with the 2012 cap.

Only then do we come back to the arguments which I set aside earlier about his health and what it would do for the team to sign him. I guess that’s what the comments section is for…





58 comments
Danny Lofaro
Danny Lofaro

Rumors have it Phoenix is willing to trade 3rd pick. If I was snow maybe Reinhart, Hickey, Bailey and seone else. Then get Dylan Strome. How cool would it be to have the Strome brothers?!? I can recall two brothers that played in the hey days that began with the letter "s"

Danny Lofaro
Danny Lofaro

Wang is a complete moron but looking back at Snow and being hired without any experience he signed Moulson, papeneau, Grabner, strait, streit, Nabby, Viz, Halak and they all contributed and he drafted pretty well. He stuck to his plan and it's starting to come together. Yes the Vanek debacle was a nightmare but his patience is starting to pay off. Not to mention he took over a team that Milbury the dumbest man in hockey wrecked. The one thing I don't get is his stating with the whole coaching staff that I just don't get

elephant
elephant

Hindsight is everything. When Snow traded for the rights to Boyle, the vast majority of posters on this site wanted him to be signed. Now, some are lambasting Snow for trying to improve the team (yes, Boyle still would have been an improvement last summer). No matter what Snow does haters are gonna hate, I guess.

dkdk
dkdk

Let's have snow win a cup or even a round to put your logic to the test.

elephant
elephant

@dkdk ... I'm not going to judge him on 1 metric. Granted, postseason performance is a very important metric, but anyone looking at Snow objectively, would consider the monetary constraints he's been under, the system (or lack thereof) that he inherited, what he has now done with money, etc.

I'm not saying Snow is perfect, but just to bash him every chance you get is silly, and this instance of bashing is exceptionally ridiculous.

dkdk
dkdk

One metric are you serious? Really? We don't play for puck possession we play to win series and aspire to a cup. Wow.

elephant
elephant

@dkdk ... So do you think another GM would have done much better? Whether you want to admit it or not, Wang kept payroll at a bare minimum, and it is totally ignorant to think that has no bearing on the performance of the team.

elephant
elephant

@dkdk ... BTW, I found something...

"Boyle has always been one of my favorites, so I hope he signs. I am not thinking it will be as easy as halak, but I hope he does. I still think an accomplished guy that has made good money may look to sign with a true cup contender, but my fingers are crossed. I think he has 2-3 years left."

Sound familiar? Thank goodness you're not the GM. I guess it comes naturally for you to criticize though.

dkdk
dkdk

Yep I advocated the trade that THE GM YOU ARE DEFENDING ACTUALLY MADE. So if I am a poor GM for liking that trade what does it say about the GM who made, or the person who is defending it? Or now are you slamming it?

puckznpadz
puckznpadz

ALEXANDER STEEN his name has been mentioned, how about Neilsen and Renhart for him.

Danny Lofaro
Danny Lofaro

Don't know if I'd trade Nielsen for stern. I do think with Pullock and now Mayfield showing he's ready Reinhart can possibly be movable.i think Lucic for size and he can definitely put up 30 playing with JT and another winger and a big defense man if Mayfield isn't ready. Need a back up goalie as well due to Neurith being delirious in thinking he can be a No.1

dkdk
dkdk

This is the only place in sports where the GM is praised for ducking failure. For 9 years. If he signed there is no boychuk, no playoffs, and more searching this summer.

puckznpadz
puckznpadz

I could not be happier that Boyle did not sign here.  However, I never dream that by him not signing would open the door to Leddy and Boychuck. Two Solid acquisitions.

Danny Lofaro
Danny Lofaro

I wasn't into the islanders trying to get him in the first place. They need a physical defense man not a almost 40 injury prone defense man. I'm glad he didn't sign.

Kevin Car
Kevin Car

Leddy and Boychuck baby......Boyle can suck it...

firecappy
firecappy

Islanders fans felt spurned? Not the Islanders fans I know. We felt relieved. This was the Wade Redden signing all over again. Everyone knew Boyle was pretty much done except for Sather and, apparently Snow.

Vicp73
Vicp73

I'm sure that Vanek, Boyle, Ehroff, Amac   not  signing here was all part of Garth's big plan, Draft and develop was the word around here , good thing all these guys rejected signing here cause this team would be scrapping the barrel Milbury style for the next 10 years . But hey let's keep praising Snow and his fly buy night operation  .


rmvacation
rmvacation

You and your blog buddies are clowns.

NOBODY is praising Snow. NOBODY.

Somebody praised the Lord, a few thanked God, but NOBODY praised Snow. Unless you believe invoking the Lord or God was code for Snow. That makes you scary silly.

Somebody even hints at showing respect to the Osner, the GM, the coach or the team- and you blog buddies have an allegeric reaction.

Things went the Isles way on a few of these signings not happening. Sometimes things don't go the Isles way. Remember when the Isles got knocked down a draft spot. The Devils got Larsson- the big Swede defender. Everybody was very sad. The Isles got Strome.

That worked out okay. Win some, lose some- keep fighting either way. That would some of us.

You would be the other guy. Win some, lose some- complain about everything...

rmbbanned2
rmbbanned2

@Vicp73 I like the rebuild, and made that opinion very public. You and the blog buddies have been very critical of the rebuild- so please try to stay on your side of the fence. Of course now that the grass is very much greener here with a huge stack of top shelf prospects, your rather uncomfortable there. 


The Franchise wasn't very good before Snow, and it wasn't very good before MIlbury, during Milbury, or after Milbury. They had a small surge that cost them dearly long term. Please feel free to dispute that point..You could also tell everybody how deep the prospect pool was in 2008, just before the Bailey draft. We all could use a refresher on the two NHL players- KO and Frans- that were in the system. And the other 48 minor league contracts that went basically no where concerning the NHL. Come on big boy, fire it up. Actually try to think about it, rather then label it..


I do enjoy irony- which would be you writing in the same fashion you accuse me. You frothing at the mouth as you get worked up in some silly righteous indignation? I always demand accountability of folks who call me a felon- as TAG did. From the same school, here you call two men you have never met, and i quote "a criminal" and "a scumbag"..

Well i guess if your gonna call people a tough guy behind the keyboard- you should know about being one..


That sound you here, is me laughing at you. Look at how worked up you got. Almost as if a nerve has been touched by my comment. I noticed you didn't dispute the comment, THAT NOBODY PRAISED SNOW, but 3 folks thanked God in some fashion.  


That really is the point of the matter. Your massive missive is nothing more then a personal attack, without a single rebuttal of the points I made in my post. In fact, your writing, conduct and tone only reinforces my opinion. You complain about everything, take everyone not your blog buddy to task. Then get busy involving your blog buddies, not even mentioned on this exchange. Gotta rally the troops I guess, eh? When you point is wrong, seek shelter in numbers?


Why not just type- "well everybody else is doing it. So i did it"..I don't need to know your age, your mentality works right along those teenaged lines..




rmbbanned2
rmbbanned2

@jethrono9 you wrote " nobody but you".


Couldn't begin to understand what your commenting on. 

I am starting to think your a big fan of tough teams with lots fighters, because you write like somebody who got punched often..


If your an adult, try using more then 3 words in a post.  

Jim Miller
Jim Miller

@rmbbanned2 @Vicp73 I personally feel we're headed in the right direction, with one exception. The coaching staff. The pieces are there, they just need direction. They no longer need a coddling coach, encouraging youngsters to perform. They need a solid, stern man, who really understands what it takes to win. Currently, it's just not there.

Vicp73
Vicp73

@rmvacation Ohh the truth hurts RM, let me guess you were a big Milbury fan too weren't you ? Your the Clown who constantly defends failure , Wang who employed probably the two worst GM's of all time,  a known criminal , a scumbag who turned a proud franchise into the laughing stock of hockey for how many years?? 

But hey we know how tough  you are behind your little keyboard , insulting a man after losing his mother in law , insulting the memory of two dead police officers , and then challenging Tag to a fight on a hockey blog. 

Please try me anytime any place , i do my talking in person not over a hockey blog you coward . 

But after what i saw that night in the stands in Colorado , i'd probably get a better fight from my 12 year old nephew .

rmvacation
rmvacation

@jim- I think a 7 game loss with the massive amount of injuries along the blue line earns the coach a playoff reprieve. Consider who the team was dressing as it's bottom three defenders in games 6 and 7..

The 101 point season far exceeded expectations.

Let's see what happens this year..

rmvacation
rmvacation

Look it's tag. Hey tag, where is all the chatter about anything but hockey. Politics, relatives, Baltimore, anarchists, movie recco's, sitcom jokes. Oops, another thread on the practice facility, so it must be there.

But thanks for reading our collective posts. You couldn't ignore me if you tried..

tag1
tag1

@Vicp73  Vic you have to excuse the empty suit a lot of the times when he posts on here he's on a "Rocky Mountain High"

dimaio34
dimaio34

Thank you LORD that this clown never signed. Rejection is a good thing sometimes. Man we would have never got Johnny boychuk. Whew. And Boyle is bad...really bad

Mark Terrin
Mark Terrin

I went with my friend to Game 5 NYR/TBL @ MSG.Man all night my bud was complaining  that DB was a washed up piece of sh#t.Rangers loss is Islanders gain.

gleichzal2
gleichzal2

yeah, that was a good 'whiff' by the islanders.

Nathan Kerr
Nathan Kerr

And now the Rangers want to trade him.

Danny Lofaro
Danny Lofaro

Boyle is like 64 yrs old and injury prone and less physical than a three yr old. I'm so happy he signed with the Rangers. Islanders are on the way up. Two more three more seasons the Rangers will be on the way down

wally1616
wally1616

Thank god he didn't sign with the Isles, He is terrible one of the many reasons why the rangers failed again this year.

justin m
justin m

@  Christian. Thanks Captain Obvious.

tpjm
tpjm

@justin m Why don't you write the next article mr. hockey?   And leave Christian alone as he does a fine job!!

Mike Minerva
Mike Minerva

I love how he broke his hand in that game against the islanders too. Karma

Go Tama
Go Tama

Boyle was pretty average his last year in SJ and he was getting hurt. The Isles dodged a bullet not being able to sign him as well as missing out on another defensemen ( his name escapes me ) a year or so ago.

tpjm
tpjm

@Go Tama Ehrhoff?  Martin?  They also dodged a bullet when Iginla didn't sign.


Look at Uncle T talking hockey and non BROOKLYN stuff which the critics lie about and say I never do.  LIARS!!

rmbbanned2
rmbbanned2

Worked out for everybody in the end. 

Boyle got paid, and made the Conference Finals this year. 

Isles got Leddy and Boychuk..


Sometimes guys don't sign here, and it is worse for the franchise. Sometimes guys don't sign here, and it is better for the team.


phishstyx1
phishstyx1

No kidding, Dan Boyle could be the considered the lynch-pin of how NY hockey turned out this year. Imagine if that no good stiff cost the Isles Nick Leddy or Johnny Boychuk. I bet many Ranger fans would think Boyle was more a negative then a positive. Can't wait to see # 15 & #17 knocking the crap out of him this coming year

jmoney93
jmoney93

The Islanders should be thanking Vanek as well for this past season

Go Tama
Go Tama

@jmoney93 Vanek is a lazy player, always will be. He plays a few games and then he disappears, he's a better version of Grabner.

puckdad99
puckdad99

@jmoney93 

Smart financial decision by him too - turns down $50 mil for 7, and takes $25 mil for 5. 

Danny Lofaro
Danny Lofaro

When healthy Grabners game as a whole is better than Vaneks. Grabs is defensively responsible and is not lazy. He was hurt all year. Not sure what you heard to make that comment