BGA: Scouting Eric Decker

Two days ago, the Jets signed wide receiver Eric Decker to a five years, $36.25m contract. Unlike most of the recent acquisitions by the Jets, Decker is pretty well known. However, I’ve been reviewing footage from his career so far to assess what he brings to the table.

The 6’3″, 214-pound Decker – who turns 27 today – was a third round pick of the Denver Broncos who has been in the league for four years. After catching a total of 50 passes in his first two seasons, he has been one of the more productive receivers in the league over the past two seasons. He has had two 1,000-yard receiving seasons in a row, catching over 80 passes in each season and scoring a total of 24 touchdowns.

After the jump, observations from reviewing footage from Decker’s career so far to evaluate his strengths and weaknesses.

Who is Eric Decker?

Decker went to college at Minnesota, where he developed into one of the top receivers in the country with 84 catches for over 1,000 yards as a junior. While this was going on, he was also drafted by two Major League Baseball teams. Unfortunately, in his senior season, he suffered a season ending foot injury, cutting another promising season short after eight games.

That injury prevented Decker from working out at the scouting combine or Minnesota’s pro day in 2010, hurting his draft stock. The Broncos still took him in the third round, even though his foot injury continued to bother him into the season. Denver were relatively deep at wide receiver, affording them the luxury of bringing him along slowly. He would end up his rookie season with just six catches. In 2011, Decker would catch 44 passes for 612 yards and eight touchdowns. The Broncos traded away their number one receiver, Brandon Lloyd, and reached the postseason with Tim Tebow at quarterback.

2012 signified the arrival of Peyton Manning and Decker’s production took off. He caught 85 passes and scored 13 touchdowns in 2012 and then followed that up with 87 receptions and 11 touchdowns in 2013. He also set a career high with 1,288 receiving yards in 2013, over 200 more than in the previous season. He joins the Jets following a trip to the Super Bowl, where the Seahawks defeated the Broncos, holding him to one catch for six yards.

The numbers

Four seasons
62 games, 44 starts (plus six playoff games)
222 catches, 3,070 yards and 33 touchdowns (plus 14 catches for 195 yards in postseason)
61% catch rate
32 drops
One carry for one yard (and one for nine in postseason)
One pass attempt (incomplete)
13 tackles (seven on special teams, all in 2010)
Nine punt returns for 157 yards, including a 90-yard touchdown (plus four for 75 in postseason)
24 kickoff returns for a 25.3 yard average, including a long of 51 yards
Six fumbles, with three lost (two on special teams)
16 penalties (one on special teams)

Observations

Based on all the footage watched, here was what Decker brings to the table, divided into categories:

Measurables - Since Decker didn’t work out before the draft, we don’t have numbers for him, but he has very good size, his forty speed was estimated by NFL Draft Scout as 4.45 and he has certainly displayed good athleticism on the field. The only thing he did participate in at the combine (other than the weigh-in and interview process) was the Wonderlic test, where his score of 43 was the best of all players that year.

Usage - Decker is a full time player, who was in on almost 90% of the snaps last season with Denver for the 5th highest snap count for all NFL receivers during the regular season. Since they have Wes Welker, he doesn’t need to line up in the slot very often. However, he still played 330 snaps in the slot in 2013 which was more than in the previous season. When lined up in the slot, he ended up catching 32 passes (at an 80% catch rate) for 350 yards and two touchdowns, so he was very productive there. The previous season he caught 23 of 25 targets when in the slot.

Decker also lined up five times in the backfield.

Deep threat – Decker caught 15 passes last year on balls thrown more than 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage (for 509 yards and five touchdowns). That came on just 25 attempts for a 60% catch rate. By comparison, Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes peaked at around 30% during their time here. Only one player (Desean Jackson) had more than 15 receptions on such throws, but his catch rate was less than 50%. Only two players with more than 10 such targets had a better catch rate than Decker. Of course, who was throwing the ball is a factor here (and something we’ll revisit later on), but one of the two players with a better catch rate was Santonio Holmes (8 for 11) and Manning’s overall percentage on such throws was just 46% so that doesn’t completely explain his success.

For Decker, this did represent an significant improvement over his numbers for 2012, where he caught 34.8% of passes thrown more than 20 yards downfield. Not surprisingly, in 2011, it was even lower – 25.9%. Again, who was throwing him the ball is a factor here.

He did show an ability to get behind the defense, often taking advantage of defensive players biting on play fakes or double moves, but certainly capable of getting a step on his man.

Blocking - Decker has had some good success with blocking since entering the league. His PFF grades for run blocking have been positive in each of his four seasons in the league for a cumulative grade of +8.9 for run blocking and +9.9 for overall blocking. He ranked third in the NFL in 2011 when the Broncos had a more run-oriented offense and 11th last season.

The film backs this up. Decker brings effort and technique, but most of all just an imposing presence. He crashed down on a linebacker or defensive back from the outside effectively on a few plays, including one where he had his target flinching even before he lowered the boom. He was also competent at setting the edge and driving the cornerback out of the play on the outside or downfield. There’s shades of Braylon Edwards in terms of how they use him, but unlike Edwards, it’s rare that he lets his target get off his block or misses the target altogether. He also avoided any holding or illegal block calls. Good blocking seems to have quietly been one of the attributes the Jets have been placed a premium on for their receivers since Marty Mornhinweg arrived. David Nelson, Josh Cribbs, Greg Salas and Saalim Hakim all showed promise here. Decker could well be better than all of them.

Routes - In 2013, Decker exhibited the ability to run all of the routes in the route tree, apart from a deep corner route. That might just be a Peyton Manning issue, because it seems that isn’t a throw he’s attempting very often at this stage of his career. There was a pretty even split between each of the different routes and the success he had running each. In terms of double moves, one route he used to good effect was a hitch and go, which saw him earn a couple of penalties and a first down.

On one play against the Saints, he ran a sharp in-out route that caused the cornerback to lose his balance and fall over, leading to an easy touchdown. He is also able to use his size over the middle and downfield to create natural separation.

Hands - Decker has averaged over 10 drops per game season over the last three year, which is obviously disappointing. However, we need to re-calibrate the scale slightly here, because usually when I’m scouting receivers the Jets have signed, they’ve been role players rather than targeted over 100 times per season. We know Decker can catch the ball, because he’s done it over 200 times in three years. This shows he’s capable of production that the Jets desperately need. However, it’s still worth analyzing these drops in more detail.

Decker actually had five drops in the first four games and then only four in the last 18, so you could say he got over these issues. However, looking at the nature of the drops, nearly all of them came as he had a defender draped all over him or had to dive for the ball. Only two were concentration drops, both on quick screen passes to the slot. Even on these, the pass was inaccurate, one being too high and the other too low. His worst drop was not on a pass, but on an onside kick, where he let the ball go through his hands and the other team recovered. Overall, his six fumbles are hopefully not a major cause for concern because he’s had over 260 touches.

When he does catch the ball, Decker usually catches it cleanly and has good technique in terms of staying inbounds, keeping low passes from hitting the turf and using his body to bring the ball in while tightly covered. He can go up and high point the ball, catch it in a crowd and make diving receptions. One in particular saw him make a juggling one-handed grab for a touchdown against the Chiefs. On the basis of all this, I’d stop short of saying he has great hands, but they’re at least good.

Decker has a 61% catch rate for his career, which is reasonably good, but it’s been much better over the last two years. The results are skewed by 2011 where he only had a 46% catch rate with Tebow and Orton throwing him the ball. His catch rate did fall in 2013, though, dropping from 70% in 2012 to 63%. Looking at the numbers initially, you might have expected that Decker’s increased yards per catch average (2013: 14.7 and 2012: 12.6) and lower catch rate could be due to him getting more downfield targets. However, somewhat bizarrely, he actually had a higher catch rate on deep balls and also caught more short passes close to the line of scrimmage. Instead it was on intermediate throws where his percentage suffered.

Yards after the catch – Along with his downfield catch percentage, the one area of statistical improvement Decker showed in 2013 was in terms of yards after the catch. He improved from 310 yards after the catch to 440 and improved his YAC per reception by over a yard to 4.6. That accounts for part of the increase in average yards per catch, although it’s still only middle of the pack on a league-wide basis.

You might actually expect Decker to do more in this area, given his returning experience and his combination of speed and size. It would be nice to think that he’s improving in this area, but it probably has as much to do with the fact that they threw him more short passes. He did break eight tackles – twice as many as in 2012. Then again, five of those came in an early season game against the Raiders. The screen pass is something Decker added to his arsenal in 2013, though, catching nine of 11 for 61 yards as opposed to just one of two for seven yards in 2012.

One impressive aspect is his physicality. There were several plays where he drove a defender for extra yardage, especially when trying to get into the end zone. I’d definitely say there were more shades of Edwards here.

Intelligence - As noted above, Decker had a sparkling Wonderlic score and has a reputation for being very smart. Despite all the complex audibles at the line, Manning’s offenses have a tendency to be pretty simplistic with good execution being the key rather than smoke and mirrors. The Broncos, like the Colts before them, don’t vary formations too often and usually run variations on a series of similar looking plays. However, Decker’s intelligence should enable him to get to grips with Marty Mornhinweg’s arguably more complex system and the emphasis on good execution is a good habit to be bringing with him.

Instincts - Everything I saw suggested Decker’s instincts are good. He just looks like he knows what he’s doing out there when you watch him closely. In particular, his open field running seemed to show he had a knack for seeing the field and using his blockers.

Special Teams – Decker returned kickoffs and played on kick coverage units as a rookie, to good effect, but hasn’t done that since early in 2011. He has returned some punts, including this 90-yarder for a touchdown in 2011. However, he has actually only returned eight other punts in his NFL career and since he’d become a full time starter, it seemed his special teams days were over.

That’s until the Broncos went back to him during the postseason, where he had 66 yards on three good returns against the Chargers (and one other return for nine yards later in the postseason). I don’t know if the Jets will risk him in that role, but he does have that ability and maybe they will consider it for important games, like they did with Antonio Cromartie on the kick return unit.

Demeanor - Decker isn’t as demonstrative as many receivers, although he plays hard, fights for yardage and shows emotion – but not too much emotion – whenever he makes a mistake or a big play.

Attitude - Again, I’ve seen nothing to suggest Decker has a poor attitude and everything I read on the subject seems positive.

Injuries – Obviously Decker’s foot was an issue when he entered the league. He tore ligaments and required surgery. He hasn’t missed a regular season game since his rookie season though. He did, however, injure his knee in the first round of the 2011 playoffs, missing the second round game. In 2012, he was listed on the injury report just twice (thigh, ankle), but he was banged up quite a bit in 2013, listed as probable 10 times with shoulder, knee, ankle, thigh and toe injuries.

The possible downside

The major reservation everyone has about this deal – one allayed somewhat by the fact his salary falls well short of the $10-12m annual salary some projected he would command – is that it’s expected Decker won’t maintain the same level of production he managed with Peyton Manning as his quarterback. While he’s reportedly determined to prove he wasn’t a product of Manning, we’ve seen players like Deion Branch, Santonio Holmes and Alvin Harper move from a team with an elite quarterback to a team without one with the result being a significant drop in production.

Some will point to Decker’s eight touchdowns in a run-oriented offense in 2011 as a sign that he can still produce without an elite quarterback to throw him the ball. Initially, I had thought you could dispel this theory pretty easily, because the Tebow-led option offense was so run oriented that the defense would usually have nine in the box. Therefore, Decker would only need to beat single coverage or could get behind the defense solely due to the element of surprise actually throwing the ball downfield provided, as was the case on this play in the game where Tebow famously only completed two passes but still led the Broncos to a win.

However, a closer look at the breakdowns and some of the footage from early in the 2011 season shows that Decker was more productive earlier in the season with the clearly non-elite Orton leading a more conventional attack. In the first four games, Decker scored two touchdowns twice and had a 100-yard game and three games with at least five catches. Extrapolating those four games over a whole season suggests he was on course for 80 catches and over 1,000 yards. Therefore, it’s actually possible he was going to put up big numbers and Tebow’s insertion into the lineup hurt his production – which, given how often they ran the ball, stands to reason.

There’s one other reservation you could have about this deal and that’s the fact that the Jets have never really had any success from signing a free agent receiver coming from another team. Looking back over some of their past free agent mishaps, fans don’t have fond memories of the likes of Art Monk, Jeff Graham, Justin McCareins and Derrick Mason. McCareins was actually traded for rather than a free agent signing, but fits in here because – like the others – he was a number two at best and the Jets were essentially just hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. The Decker signing is different from each of these though.

Monk was signed by the Jets long after his production had started to wane. He had two seasons with fewer than 50 catches after having averaged 74 in his previous four. Derrick Mason was also well past his prime. Although Mason had caught at least 60 passes and missed only a handful of games over the previous 10 seasons, he was 37 and not expected to be a starter. As it turned out, his downfall was much faster than Monk’s and the Jets traded him away after a month of the regular season.

McCareins didn’t have a bad first season with the Jets, but was too mistake prone to establish himself as a number one and he soon fell out of favor. This is again different to Decker because rather than being in his prime and establishing a high level of production, McCareins had just had one decent year and the Jets were hoping he would continue to emerge.

The closest comparison is Graham. He was 27 and coming off an 82 catch, 1,300 yard season (with the previous year not being too far behind). The thing about the Graham move is that while it is remembered as a disaster, there was a remarkable paucity of talent on those Rich Kotite teams and Graham’s production wasn’t actually that bad, he just wasn’t able to single-handedly provide the veteran impact they needed. The Jets will be hoping that Decker will function as an integral part of the offense rather than being forced to try and carry it.

(Bonus Link: Here’s an excellent article that touches on similar themes to those discussed above, reaching a similar conclusion.)

Conclusions

From what I’ve seen of Decker, he displayed the ability to do pretty much whatever you’d hope to see out of a receiver. He has size, speed, hands and route running ability, which he uses to produce in a variety of different plays. You’ve heard of quarterbacks that can “make all the throws”? I’d liken Decker to a wide receiver version of that – he can “run all the routes” and “make all the catches”. The challenge is the same though – can he be consistent enough to continue making these contributions each week? Of course, a lot of that is going to come down to whoever is tasked with getting him the ball. Presumably this will be Geno Smith, at least in the short term and the hope will be that rather than Decker being brought down by Smith’s inadequacies, he’s going to help him to overcome them.

It remains difficult to project how close Decker can come to matching the kind of production he’s managed over the past two seasons, but even if he falls short there’s still a good chance he’ll provide a significant upgrade over the next few years to hopefully justify the financial outlay.

Some stats from PFF were used in the completion of this article.




255 comments
Geoff Dean
Geoff Dean

excellent read. obviously smith is no manning, but i like deckers work ethic and i can see him being able to extend drives. maybe a new and improved cotchery? dont get me wrong, loved cotch. just saying a bit better possibly.

jvsvn
jvsvn

Sounds like he is a solid starting WR in the NFL. OK. Yes, Please. The MM passing offense is not about routes, it's about route combinations. What we need in addition to Decker is our version of Desean Jackson. A speedster who can stretch the defense and cause havoc, and/or open up the field for the rest of the receivers to exploit. That's who we will be drafting in the first round. It's going to be Cooks, Lee, or Beckum. Whichever one is available and the Jets feel is most promising in fulfilling the DJ role. I'd keep my eye on Cooks. Undersized (like Jackson) but a speed merchant. The Decker acquisition is just the first piece of the puzzle.

JCuratola3
JCuratola3

Decker Cooks Kerley Nelson/Hill .. pretty good 

nesboogie
nesboogie

Looks like we're not getting DRC

Dan Leyes
Dan Leyes

I don't remember Jeff Graham. Is it possible I have repressed the Kotite years to that point? Or was he just that forgettable. Great analysis Bent, thanks! I think Decker will be one very good piece in the offensive puzzle...lots of variables, but he will do his job, I'm confident.

levi
levi

I gotta say Idzik is good for TJB. Tanny would have been broke 20 minutes into free agency but with Idzik we get to discuss what we should do for days.

Bytor
Bytor

Great read Bent, thanks! This guy is exactly what the doctor ordered. Now draft me an explosive player in the draft and I'm an even happier camper. Lock up DRC we're at it.

idothis2
idothis2

From this BGA, Decker seems like a complete receiver. Happy to hear he is an effective effort blocker. I think Geno or whoever starts will benefit from having a smart receiver to help them understand what each other should be seeing.

a57se
a57se

Nice job Bent.

I was surprised at the number of drops by Decker but your explanations make sense and that shouldn't be a concern though when you have a scoring challenged offense, every little miscue gees magnified.

Glad someone finally figured out Deckers production suffered greatly under Tebow...that is why I posted those breakdowns because folks were trying to argue that Decker was very productive under the Teeb......:)

NYCPEinGermany
NYCPEinGermany

Getting Decker is a good move. The guy puts up #1 receiver numbers, but because he has manning throwing to him he's really a #2? Whatever, we got him at a really good price, he's a good receiver and that's exactly what we needed. 

Hoz
Hoz

if DRC leave the building unsigned what's next?

bradysucks
bradysucks

Bent

who returns punts for the Jets in 2014?

Wilson stinks as a returner and Kerley fumbles. Decker could probably do it but I doubt the Jets risk injuring him putting him back there as a punt returner. Jim Leonard used to be great at returning punts. Wouldn't Julian Edelman be a good fit for the Jets to take on this role and give us depth at WR? Curious what you think..

Bent
Bent moderator

@Dan Leyes  He did have like 50 catches, but he was coming off an 80 catch season when he signed?

Bent
Bent moderator

@a57se  There's just so many targets, he's gonna have some tough ones go off his hands.  In terms of actual drop rate he improved from near the bottom (87th) to below average (61st) to middle of the pack (49th) over the past three years.  Number of qualifiers was just below 100.

harold
harold

@a57se

No WR would every be extremely productive on a consistent basis with Tebow.

To your point he did the best he could with Tebow at the helm.

jenkins
jenkins

@Hoz  I'd be really surprised if we didn't get DRC. Now's the time.

harold
harold

@Hoz

We look at young guys like Walter Thurmond

Bent
Bent moderator

@bradysucks  Don't know.  Cribbs wants to be back.  I like him in the return game, just don't know if there's room on the roster.


Maybe a rookie.


Who returns kickoffs is a good question too.

Marvel
Marvel

@bradysucks

 most overlooked aspect of the offseason.


my answer.  DAT and or dri Archer. 


not sure if Cooks did it a lot.



Steven Windeler
Steven Windeler

@Bent @nesboogie Seriously. This guy wasted 15 minutes of my life looking for news about this. I can't seem to find my dislike button.

a57se
a57se

@Bent @a57se 

Compare to Stephen Hill.....who gets killed all the time on this Blog for drops.

harold
harold

@jma020

I hope you mean DRC

harold
harold

@bradysucks

I know you like him, just seems if we wanted Samuel we would have just given Verner 7 million and been done with it.  Don't see him as a great fit.

Although I do like him as a player.

Hoz
Hoz

@harold  wild I didn't know he was still on the market he's very servicable

a57se
a57se

@Bent @bradysucks 

With 12 draft picks, you'd think we could spend one on a return specialist.......

bradysucks
bradysucks

For the record I got no issues at all taking Brandin Cooks in round 1.

He'd add an explosiveness to the Jets that they badly need!

harold
harold

@Marvel

Cooks returned punts (pretty good at it), he did fumble one on the tape I watched.

bradysucks
bradysucks

ODB or Lee....or somebody we draft

Edelman would be the best guy.

Unless ....

Isn't Devon Hester a free agent?

DrJonathanReefer
DrJonathanReefer

Well if Hill had 1000+ yards and 10+ td seasons we'd not complain so much about the drops.

Bent
Bent moderator

@a57se @Bent  67th this year.  In 2012, he actually doesn't have enough snaps to qualify but his drop rate is identical to the guy in last place.

jma020
jma020

@harold  I don't necessarily disagree.  I just think it's closer than you seem to imply when you say "you must be joking".  Cro still has 3 years. 

harold
harold

My point is give me the better player, who is younger and inconsistent.  Then the older player who is also inconsistent.

I like Cro, but feel DRC is a better fit for the Jets at this time.

harold
harold

@jma020

Cro has been inconsistent on the Jets.  He has been good and also average.  This year he was injured and terrible.

jma020
jma020

@harold  For the record I wouldn't have a big problem with bringing Cro back instead of DRC either.  If he gets healthy he can get back to 2012-13 form.

jma020
jma020

@harold  I don't,  I was responding to what do we do if DRC is gone.  I'm a big fan of Cro.  Don't think Jets fan appreciate him.

bradysucks
bradysucks

I'd rather have Verner than Samuel but that train left the station....

Samuel gets interceptions and he'd get a bunch of them if we put him in the secondary with Ed Reed and Antonio Allen in my opinion....

Samuel isn't very physical though which I don't like but he has tremendous ball skills and he can still run

I do not want to draft another CB early in the draft. We already did this last year with Millner and in 2010 with Wilson....

The Seahawks drafted Browner and Sherman in the middle round of the draft... Idzik knows this...

I hope to address CB in free agency or late in the draft

Marvel
Marvel

@harold  

he'll be cheap but bad scheme fit.

harold
harold

@Hoz

There are a few still left, hopefully we grab one in the next few days

tal8
tal8

@a57se @tal8 @Bent @bradysucks  Big V... The bengals signed him as UDFA... Right? For the past 4 years these guys have drafted to perfection... Amazing that nothing has materialized on the field. I think their draft plan is awesome. 

tal8
tal8

@a57se @tal8 @Bent @bradysucks  Every year our 1-4 picks (If we have those LOL) are great... This year I'll just turn off the TV after rd 4

a57se
a57se

@tal8 @a57se@Bent@bradysucks 

Yeah and Bohanon was simply because his son is friends with the guy...could have had him easily as a UDFA.

We could of taken Fauria with that darn pick.

tal8
tal8

@a57se @tal8 @Bent @bradysucks  Geno was fine actually... Taking a guy who was projected a top 10 at the 2nd rd... Very good. He did provide a 1st rd moments at times. That was really legit... But the Winters and Campbell picks were just mind boggling... Really.

a57se
a57se

@tal8 @a57se@Bent@bradysucks 

I felt the last two guys could of been had as UDFA's......I wasn't a big fan of taking Geno either but let's not go there.

tal8
tal8

@a57se @tal8 @Bent @bradysucks  Let m tell ya... Our 1st three picks were awesome. From that point? It all went to a big WTF??? 1st with Allen o/b we take winters, then with our 5th pick a mediocre OL, then this and eventually a FB.................... I truly hope this year will be a hell of a lot better.

NJJDB
NJJDB

@a57se @Bent@bradysucksI expect those 12 picks to turn into ~8 picks when all is said and done. Still, nothing precluding us from picking up a return guy.

tal8
tal8

@a57se @Bent @bradysucks  U would think we wouldn't take with our 6th rd pick a DL and turn him to a G... I m open to everything... Seriously