BGA: Updating the Compensatory Picks Projection

Bent, TheJetsBlog.com

As most of you will be aware, we try to project the number of compensatory picks the Jets will have each season. The distribution of compensatory picks is based on a secret formula which even teams aren’t party to. A blogger named AdamJT13 gradually managed to reverse engineer an extremely accurate approximation of the formula a few years ago and we’ve been able to use that to come up with accurate projections for the Jets’ compensatory picks (or lack thereof) over the past couple of seasons.

In order to do this, we evaluate each potentially qualifying UFA loss or gain for the Jets and then project what picks that will entitle them to, based on the situation in previous years. My initial projection on this basis for the 2014 draft was that the Jets could qualify for four picks – a fourth rounder, a fifth rounder and two seventh rounders. You can read the basis for that here, along with a detailed explanation of the compensatory pick rules and what we’ve so far been able to determine affects the formula.

What we haven’t done is aim to project the compensatory picks for all 32 teams. This is something Adam used to do and the guys from Blogging the Beast have tried to run with the baton for the past few seasons. The same guys have just published this year’s forecast on Philly.com. This allows us to update our projection, because obviously the number of other teams with qualifying gains and losses will affect where the Jets’ compensatory picks fall. In a year with a paucity of big money deals, the picks to be awarded would be more likely to be more valuable than the projection. However, in a top-heavy year, picks could end up being downgraded or not even qualify at all.

The good news is that their projection also has the Jets receiving four compensatory picks (which you may recall Adam Schefter saying that the Jets were counting on and had planned their 2013 free agency strategy around). The bad news is that, having read this, I’m actually less convinced than I was before that this is what the Jets will end up with. Find out why after the jump.

Differences between the projections

In my initial projection, the Jets would have no qualifying losses and four qualifying gains, ending up with a 4th rounder (Landry), a 5th rounder (DeVito) and two 7th rounders (Bell and Slauson). This came with the caveat that both Bell and Slauson could be right on the bubble because the lowest salary to earn a compensatory pick in 2013 was a minimum salary of $840,000. Bell’s salary was higher than that but was also a minimum salary. Slauson’s was actually lower, although it was $100,000 over the minimum for a fifth year player. Here’s where seeing the projected gains and losses for all 32 teams can be instructive.

In the Philly.com projection, the Jets actually have TWO qualifying losses and SIX qualifying gains, so their projection awards the Jets the maximum of four picks based on the four most valuable contracts. They come up with a 5th for Landry and a 6th rounder for DeVito, plus 6th rounders also for Greene and Keller (each of whom I hadn’t been expecting to qualify).

Injured reserve

The advantage of these annual projections is that every year produces anomalies which enable us to become more and more accurate. The status of players who spent the year on injured reserve would appear to be one of these. Whereas I’d previously assumed that the likes of Keller, Goodson and Barnes would not be qualifying losses on the basis that none of them would have met the playing time threshold – which has historically been around 20% of the snaps, it turns out that players on full injured reserve HAVE in fact qualified in the past. This is presumably under a similar set of rules as those that treat players as having accrued a season by being on injured reserve because they are on “full pay status”.

However, there are also examples of players whose salary was big enough for them to qualify but that spent the whole year on injured reserve and did not qualify. One such example was Tampa’s Antonio Crowell in 2010. The reason he did not qualify whereas others on injured reserve did isn’t obvious, but one theory is that he was only on a one year deal and spent the entirety of that season on the injured reserve list. There’s some logic to this because a player who went on injured reserve part of the way through the season or one that remains under contract because they signed a multi-year deal does still provide some benefit to their new team and therefore it’s not too much of a stretch to understand why they’d be treated as a qualifying gain. The bad news here is that if this theory is correct, then Keller (one year deal) would not qualify, but Goodson and Barnes (multi-year deals) potentially would, thereby reducing the Jets’ entitlement.

In terms of Barnes and Goodson, it will be interesting to see whether they both qualify by virtue of landing on injured reserve. It makes sense for Barnes to qualify because he had been on course to meet the minimum playing time requirement when he was injured and then spent the rest of the year on injured reserve. With Goodson, the position is more clouded because in the games he did play, he only saw action on fewer plays and four of the games he missed were due to being suspended – which is not “full pay status”.

If I had to predict, I would still say that Keller and Goodson probably don’t qualify, but Barnes does, which would reduce my projection down to three picks. Philly.com would still have the Jets with four if that was the case, but that’s because they have Greene as qualifying. The reason I don’t have Greene as qualifying is because he only played 14% of the snaps and as a general rule 20% was the cut-off point in previous seasons. The guys from Philly.com conceded that there was some guesswork involved with their own playing time projections. Greene was of course injured too, but not on injured reserve. There is one recent example of someone still qualifying when they played less than that – Drew Stanton, who played ZERO snaps. The assumption there was that the player perhaps qualified by virtue of the Colts making the postseason, although in retrospect, I think it might simply be because the Jets traded him for a pick and therefore are deemed to have gained from the transaction regardless of how much he plays.

Pick values

There are also slight differences between the values assigned to each pick in my projection and those in Philly.com’s projection. I had Landry as a fourth rounder and DeVito as a fifth rounder (and also would have had Keller as a fifth rounder had he qualified), but their projection is a round later in each case. Here’s where the 32-team projection is useful because while I had been using the level of compensation in previous years, we can now see that there were more big money deals this year, with the likes of Baltimore, Atlanta, Pittsburgh and Houston all having several big losses, perhaps as a deliberate strategy to earn each of them at least three picks. This could well downgrade the value of the Landry and DeVito picks. Both Landry and DeVito are right on the bubble, though, so it will depend what the formula spits out. The fact they both comfortably met the playing time criteria and were on teams that made the postseason could be enough to bump them back up.

Finally, we can also get more insight into the likelihood of Bell and Slauson qualifying. Although the Philly.com projection for some reason issues 36 picks instead of the usual 32 (EDIT: This has now been corrected on their forecast), there are qualifying players on there with lower salaries than either of them, so this provides comfort that these should still count – whether that be to net off against another pick or to earn a seventh rounder in their own right.

Conclusion

There’s a lot of trial and error involved here and we still have a ways to go before we can predict these choices with 100% accuracy. In the past few seasons, the projection for the Jets has been straightforward enough for me to nail down, but this year there are several items where we can’t be certain which way the chips will fall and therefore we’re left with a situation where the best case scenario would land the Jets four picks (4, 5, 5, 6) and the worst case scenario (only Landry and DeVito qualify and are netted off by the Goodson and Barnes signings) would leave them with a seventh rounder at best and possibly even nothing.

The fact that players on injured reserve have been counted in the past is an eye-opener, necessitating an update to the previous projection. I still think it’s likely Keller, Greene and Goodson don’t qualify based upon the information above, which would leave the Jets with three picks rather than the four they’d been anticipating. That would leave them with a 7th rounder, one pick that would either be a 4th or a 5th and one that would be a 5th or a 6th.

Ultimately, we won’t know until the NFL announces the awarded picks in late March, but it does still look like the Jets will be in double-digits when all is said and done.

59 comments
a57se
a57se

I knew something other than compensatory picks had to be the topic here to get so many comments! 

I don't think it is that big of a deal but I am sure the media will go bonkers.....

Brendan
Brendan

livefyre is so worthless. 


Michael Sam just came out, the NFL is about to have its first openly "out" player, but I can't type the word because livefyre will block the comment. 

jaygo
jaygo

Bent, you restore my faith in this blog with these interesting and informative posts.  

Steven Windeler
Steven Windeler

I still don't get why IR, or playing time should matter. It's not the benefit to the other team that's being effected (It's not like they take the picks away from the signer), but the $ loss to the original team. The contract figure should be all that's considered. Their dumb luck good or bad should be a moot point. My guess is we get a 4 5 6 6, or a 5 5 6 7

Brendan
Brendan

I'll take 2+, with a 3rd from Tampa. That'd give Idzik enough flexibility to make a move if he wants to. 

jma020
jma020

@Brendan  I saw him mocked to the us on Walterfootball a few mocks ago.  

rstysanchz
rstysanchz

@Brendan  i wonder if this will hurt him in the draft....arent some people saying that was the reason for kerry rhodes not getting signed this year 

harold
harold

@Brendan


I would as well.  However, I am holding out hope we get at least 3 extra picks.  We need it to round out our roster IMO.  We need to get 7-9 solid players in this draft.  At least 3 future impact players (potential pro bowlers) and 3-4 additional starters and  the rest role players/special teamers.  So the more picks the more likely we can reach that number

rstysanchz
rstysanchz

@jma020 @Brendan  walter sports has him going anywhere from the 3rd rd to the 5th rd....he put up good numbers last year but it seems like kony ealy who plays opposite of sam was getting the double teams 

Brendan
Brendan

@rstysanchz Unfortunately, I expect it will hurt his draft stock, but it only takes one team. We'll see. 

NYCPEinGermany
NYCPEinGermany

@harold  Wow - isn't that a lot to ask from a draft? If we have 10-12 picks, having 6 starters as you outlined would be at least a 50% success rate, then factor in 3 more contributors as you did and you are at a minimum of hitting on 75% of the picks. Would be awesome, but perhaps unrealistic, no?

Hanknaples
Hanknaples

@Brendan @Hanknaples

I'm REALLY waisting my time with you.!!!

You estrapolate 50 words refrencing a HOAX OUT OF A 500 word article pointing out Factual Scientific PRBABILITIES and you label the whole thing a Hoax...How SHALLOW, PHONY and ridiculous argument on your part !!!! Your hypocritical position refused to see the part that 'ARTIFICIAL UTERUS" could make it possible for the Male Body to SAFELY support pregnancy !!!Today's science is on the brink of growing human Organs why not a FEMALE UTERUS ???That said, Now that LIBERAISM has legalized Same Sex Marriage it WILL be possible for Michael Sam to get pregnant !!!!

Question is : WILL THE NFL PAY HIS SALARY WHILE ON MATERNITY LEAVE ???

Hanknaples
Hanknaples

@jma020 @Hanknaples

Hey jma020, do you think this guy (Michael Sam) is already thinking of getting on the MALE PREGNANCY WATING LIST ???

And if he does, will he get full pay for his Maternity Leave ???

Marcus Armstrong
Marcus Armstrong

@Brendan @rstysanchz  Fwiw, I expect the real problem from the NFL's perspective is the media bombardment associated with it, rather than actual large-scale homophobia.

rkymtnjet
rkymtnjet

@Hanknaples  Just realize that you are in favor of arguing mail pregnancy. Think about that. 

Brendan
Brendan

@Hanknaples  


Hank, they REFERENCED the joke website. 


"He is also a performance artist, and the images of his swollen abdomen and kicking baby are part of his hoax Web site malepregnancy.com. But is it only a matter of time before the idea of a baby-bearing dad moves beyond the realm of hoax and into the delivery room?"


McGee says something that proves it's possible? The entire article talks about how a pregnancy would kill a male. 


Hank, you goddamn lunatic, men cannot get pregnant. And, furthermore, what in the wide world of f--- does this have to do with Michael Sam coming out? 

Hanknaples
Hanknaples

@Brendan @Hanknaples

Joke, JOKE WEBSITE ???  Sorry brendan but YOU"RE the Joke !!!

Popular Science is a Highly Prestigious Scientific Journal, founded over 100 years Ago with MANY Awards and over 7 million readers !!!!

The Individua;l I quoted is Glenn McGee a Highly Respected Bioethicist !!!

Soo read on Kiddo and stop being a contrarian just for the fear of being WRONG, AGAIN !!!

Brendan
Brendan

@Hanknaples Hank, they again reference the joke website. JOKE website. 


Back to more important and relevant matters: 


Sam's teammates, who knew he was [word that livefyre won't let me say], voted him the team's most valuable player after the most successful season in school history. They didn't seem to be bothered by him coming out to them.

rstysanchz
rstysanchz

@Brendan @Hanknaples  i guess once he realized it didnt affect his performance or the performance of his team that hes better off putting everything out there so teams know what they are getting with him...plus he dosent have to worry about other people leaking stories about him making him look like a liar 

Hanknaples
Hanknaples

@Brendan @Hanknaples

A person Character defines who he is......NOT His SEXUAL ORENTATION .....sorry you picked the WRONG Excuse kiddo !!!!!

Hanknaples
Hanknaples

@Brendan @Hanknaples

I did NOT check the site credentials but if you GOOGLE it I'm sure you'll get tons of info.....I believe I saw it on the science Channel

Hanknaples
Hanknaples

@jma020 @Brendan @rstysanchz

What is his motive ?

There must've been thousands before him that became Famous, Wealthy and Superstars without any problems !!

He must want to be a Hero or a Martyr !!!

Brendan
Brendan

@Hanknaples I'm still interested in these male pregnancies, tell me more about those. 

Brendan
Brendan

@Hanknaples  .....Wow. 


Damon Harrison @BigDame900

Accept a man for who he is, let us not pass judgement...congrats to that young man on his bravery!!

Hanknaples
Hanknaples

@Brendan @rstysanchz

Like I said Brendan, I don't want to hear what YOUR sexual preference is....REGARDLESS !!!! Keep it to yourself !!! However, I do recognize that there is a SPECIAL CODE OF CONDUCT (Martin/Incognito) in NFL Locker rooms but those rules are set AMONG THE MEMBERS and should be adhered to and followed by those members !!!!!!That said, there is a problem in todays culture !! In the name of (Democracy) ie....LIBERALISM, our Morals, Edicts, Principles, and TRADITION ARE ALL BLENDING INTO ONE !!Forget Sexuali Orientation or same sex marriage, todays'sience will be able to make men FERTILE (PREGNANT) pretty soon......then what ?.......you tell me !!!!!!

jma020
jma020

@Brendan @rstysanchz  Only reason it would hurt the team is because of ignorant teammates which I'm sure fill up all the NFL locker rooms.  The guy has courage.  Hope he gets drafted and treated well.  

rstysanchz
rstysanchz

@Brendan @rstysanchz  well if college kidsare able to play and like the guy hopefully the nfl will have no problem with him....he was a teammate of sheldon so im sure well be hearing more about this  

Brendan
Brendan

@rstysanchz His coaches/teammates all knew, but didn't say anything because he wanted to do it on his own. There's a "behind-the-scenes" thing out there, as well. This definitely wasn't rushed to get ahead of something. 


That's the other thing, his entire team knew, and they love the guy. That's proof that it doesn't have to hurt a team. 

rstysanchz
rstysanchz

@Hanknaples @Brendan  im wondering if some pictures or a boyfriend of him was going to come out which forced sam to come out before the draft or did he just do this on his own....regardless of anyones politics i cant see him taking a gamble with something like this  

Brendan
Brendan

@Hanknaples But that's not the case in NFL locker rooms, Hank, those things are talked about all the time. 


"Don't ask, don't tell" was repealed, Hanker. If they're good enough to fight wars, they're good enough to play in the NFL, with or without you wanting to hear about it. 

Hanknaples
Hanknaples

@Brendan @Hanknaples

I really don't want to know what YOUR sexual preference is or who you went to bed with last !!

REAL MEN tdon't speak about those things !!!

Hanknaples
Hanknaples

@Brendan @Hanknaples

So now you're changing the rules for ALL men....not just the FEW !!!

That's the way to make it right kiddo !!!

Brendan
Brendan

@Hanknaples So straight guys should keep it a secret that they're straight, right? 


I hope he performs well at the combine so there's no excuse for teams to unfairly drop him. 

Hanknaples
Hanknaples

@Brendan @rstysanchz

The two players (One was an OUTSTANDING kicker) that openly declared prior to the last draft (I believe) were NOT drafted !!

Regardless of what, the NFL is just not ready for a openly declared player !!! I wish this guy luck but I still believe in the "Don't ask, Don't tell " Edict In all just male sanctiums !!!

NYCPEinGermany
NYCPEinGermany

@harold  It's also not so easy to quantify how well we hit on a draft. 


In 2009, we hit on 100% with sanchez, greene and slauson. Or did we?


We got some productive play out of sanchez and greene but of course both were disappointments who didn't live up to their draft billing or potential. You could easily make the case that slauson was the best pick of that draft and that we hit on 33% of our picks that year. 


Of course, if we have 12 picks the strategy is completely different, so hopefully that 58% is realizable. 

harold
harold

If we can't hit on players at a 58% level (7/12) then we need a new scouting dept.  I think 7 players if we have 12 picks is very realistic and would be a very good draft. 

8 would be a terrific draft 

9 would be an all-time draft. 

NYCPEinGermany
NYCPEinGermany

@harold @juunit @NYCPEinGermany  


I get it and would love it, just don't see it as likely. Quite often a fair amount of the late round picks don't make the team or only last a year. Often some of the earlier round picks will be disappointing. Would be a great draft to hit on so many, even with some only contributing at the role player level.  

harold
harold

@juunit @NYCPEinGermany@harold


Guys, I expect 3 immediate starters.  The other 3 realistically would start after a season or two.  The other 1-3 guys would hopefully become special teamers/depth players.  So 4-6 guys would be depth players/special over the first one to two seasons.  Like a Matt Slauson was or Antonio Allen.  That is what you want from those developmental guys.  Remember theses guys were a 6th and 7th rounder respectively.  So it is very possible if you draft well.  I feel we need a min of 7 quality players.  Yes, 9 would be a homerun.