Compensatory picks to be announced today

The owners’ meetings get underway today in Orlando. You can expect to hear about things such as rule changes later in the week and there may also be some trade activity and contract negotiations to watch out for. However, for today, our attention turns to the announcement of which compensatory picks will be awarded in the 2014 draft.

We know that the Jets have been expecting and are still expecting to get the maximum four picks, but the NFL’s formula is not made available to teams. We were told that team officials indicated that they still expected to receive four picks at a recent event for season ticket holders.

Bent, TheJetsBlog.com

The media seem to have picked up on the Philly.com projection that suggests the Jets will receive a 5th round pick and three sixth rounders. However, they concede that their projections are never 100% accurate and there have been a few errors (for example, they had to amend their initial projection because they awarded 36 picks rather than the maximum of 32).

I wrote in detail about where their projection may not be correct and you can find those links after the jump. To summarize the main points, however:

  • Dustin Keller (a projected 5th rounder) may not qualify because he was on a one year deal and went straight onto injured reserve. In the past, there have been such players that would otherwise have qualified that have not qualified
  • Shonn Greene (a projected 6th) may not qualify because he only played 14.4% of the snaps and did not feature on special teams. In the past, there have been players that did not qualify due to insufficient playing time with the cut-off being approximately 20%
  • If Keller and/or Greene do not qualify then the Jets could still get four picks, but that will depend on whether Yeremiah Bell and/or Matt Slauson qualify. Each would be worth a seventh rounder
  • Either of them could fail to qualify because their salaries were too low. My working theory is that perhaps a player does not qualify if the acquiring team obtains a cap reduction for a vested veteran’s minimum salary. This would apply to Bell, but not Slauson whose salary was lower than Bell’s but $100K over the minimum for a player of his age.

It’s not all bad news. The Landry and DeVito picks, respectively projected by Philly.com as a 5th and 6th rounder are both right on the bubble, so either of them could in theory be one round higher than that. If he does qualify, the same could be said for Keller (currently projected as a 6th). Also, Mike Goodson – treated by Philly.com as a qualifying gain – may not qualify due to his low playing time before he ended up on injured reserve. That might not make any difference but could benefit the Jets if any of the previously projected qualifying losses do not qualify.

My detailed projections, including a full breakdown of the rules and what we believe we know about the the formula are here and here.




72 comments
karlhungus
karlhungus

a 4 and 3 6ths....pretty nice...


So 1 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 7... Not bad.

a57se
a57se

So are we going to sign terrell pryor after the raiders release him?

He is more Vick-like than Geno.

funkymonk
funkymonk

Interesting note courtesy of @Dennis_Agapito:


"Jets GM Idzik purposefully signed Leger Douzable on 7/24 after the UFA signing period ended. If signed earlier could have cost a comp pick."

funkymonk
funkymonk

Speaking of qualifying lost free agents, um, Raiders are actually moving Austin Howard to guard?

Brendan
Brendan

Jason La Canfora ‏@JasonLaCanfora  5m

Kraft says Revis could have made more money elsewhere but came to Pats to have great opportunity to win. Spent time w/Revis in Florida


Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheet  5m

Robert Kraft said he's talked with Darrelle Revis about joining the Patriots, citing Revis' commitment to workouts. "He wants to win."




Looking forward to PFT's imminent post on Kraft's pending tampering charges. 

funkymonk
funkymonk

So, if the players that caused these picks were the Rexodus, are the resulting picks the Infrex? Ryansation? Compensanchez? 


(ducks)

jaym
jaym

Bent would this matter for comp picks next year?


Chris Mortensen @mortreport

Sanchez contract actually terminates at 4 pm ET.. Then he's free. No waivers.

twin
twin

I would like to take time out and thank everybody that is part of this Blog... You guys make me smarter Thank You... J.E.T.S.

twin
twin

Can't Wait!!!!! Bart Scott ThrowBack.....

jdb4
jdb4

The extra 5th would be nice and having a total of four 6th round picks certainly can't hurt the flexibility to move around the draft (fully aware compensatory picks can't be traded)

Bent
Bent moderator

Before anyone asks, as things stand (still plenty that could change) the Jets could end up with a pick or two next year but it's not looking that likely right now.


Qualifying losses: Howard, Trufant, Ducasse should all qualify, unless Ducasse got the minimum or Trufant doesn't make the team.


Qualfiying gains: Decker, Giacomini, Vick


Looks like they'd need someone like Winslow, Berry or Reed (nooooo!) to get picked up soon to end up with a pick, although if Vick sits on the bench all year perhaps he won't qualify.  They may, of course, add further UFA's within the signing period to further offset any more losses.


Note: Cro doesn't qualify because he was cut.  Same with Holmes and Sanchez if they get scooped up.

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se Sure, if Vick was still 24 years old and his game still closely resembled the type of game Pryor plays. 

Bent
Bent moderator

@funkymonk  


I also wrote this on July 26th last year:


"You may wonder why the Jets didn’t sign him when they worked him out a month or so ago, but I can perhaps answer that one. Had they signed him then, he would potentially count towards the calculation of UFA compensatory picks due to the Jets in next year’s draft. However, by waiting until the free agent signing period had expired, he no longer needs to be accounted for in that formula."


http://thejetsblog.com/bga/bga-scouting-leger-douzable/

Bent
Bent moderator

@funkymonk  Yeah, just saw that on another post.  Wow.


@VicTafur Turns out there was a twist. #Raiders signed AustinHoward to play guard and not tackle

twin
twin

@Brendan more reason to beat them this year and next year!!!!!!!

Bent
Bent moderator

@Brendan  When was this?


And why did the media grill the Philly GM about if Woody should be done for tampering?  I don't recall them doing this to the Bucs GM last year...

Disgruntled Jets Fan
Disgruntled Jets Fan

@jaym really bad reporting there.   his contract was set to terminate after next year.   That was just the roster bonus.

Brendan
Brendan

@jaym  Cut players don't count towards comp picks. 

gbrownn
gbrownn

I'd take Pryor as my 3rd stringer anyday. Send Simms to the practice squad. 

funkymonk
funkymonk

@Bent Ha, nice, figures you're on top of it.


The Raiders would've signed him on the first day of FA, given him $8 million, and moved him to linebacker.

Brendan
Brendan

@Bent Not sure when these conversations were held, but I doubt it was in the 12-hour span when Revis was a free agent (or whatever it was). 

Bent
Bent moderator

@Disgruntled Jets Fan @jaym  Unless there was some kind of option involved, but I'm sure Mort would have detailed this if that was the case.

Bent
Bent moderator

@a57se @Bent  Nope.  The fact no other team has been linked with him is hopefully a good sign for their chances of bringing him back.

Bent
Bent moderator

@Brendan @Bent  Probably not, but who knows what Team Revis does and doesn't feel is appropriate to leak?

Brendan
Brendan

@Bent Ah, got it. 


Since "universal permission to seek a trade" would likely get reported by one of the major outlets/reporters, it's probably safe to assume no such permission was granted to Revis this offseason? 

Bent
Bent moderator

@Brendan @Bent  


Typically perhaps, but essentially you can grant permission whenever you like.  Sometimes players are granted universal permission to seek a trade which enables them to talk to whoever they like.

Brendan
Brendan

@Bent But isn't that something that's only granted to a team once the two teams agree on trade compensation? 


Like with Johan (different sport, I know), the trade went through and there was a predetermined negotiating window. Revis is a tough example because it's blatantly obvious his agents were scouring the league for a deal well before the team traded him, but I assume if his agents weren't scum that it would've worked similarly. 


That way you avoid scenarios like the one we're discussing, where prospective trade partners can talk to the guy, reach some shady side-deal to just sit tight until he's cut and then they can sign him to the deal they've already agreed to. 


I dunno, it just strikes me as those comments reeking of tampering to me. 

Bent
Bent moderator

@Brendan  


Tampering is tampering regardless of the end result...unless you got permission.


I was thinking the Pats say "We might trade for Revis but you have to let us talk to him about restructuring his contract first".  So the Bucs, knowing they're probably going to lose him for nothing, would let the Pats talk to him just in case they're prepared to give them a pick.  At the time, they would be hoping another team would come in for him.

Brendan
Brendan

@Bent But Revis wasn't traded, so wouldn't that still be tampering? 


The Pats talk to Revis while he's still on the Bucs, they work out the parameters of a deal (like Revis did with the Bucs while still on the Jets last year) and then he gets cut and immediately signs. 


Tampa can't grant them that privilege, can they? That's essentially the Pats an exclusive negotiating window before his release. 



Bent
Bent moderator

@Brendan @Bent  2-and-a-half.  Although maybe they got permission to talk to him as part of trade negotiations.

Bent
Bent moderator

@Hanknaples @Bent  I guess you didn't read the link that stated based on your agreed parameters that Mangold has had four of the top ten seasons by any NFL center since 2006, including the two best whereas Mack at his absolute apex only had the 19th best, thereby proving on the basis of your agreed measurable parameters that Mangold is by far the superior player.


And you also missed the comment where I acknowledged the Mack was a decent pick, albeit the only non-awful pick Mangini made out of all those picks from the two trades.

Bent
Bent moderator

@Hanknaples  Haha I only said five picks because you did above.  I'm well aware of which five players they ended up with.  It's a pretty hilarious list, apart from Alex Mack.

Bent
Bent moderator

@Hanknaples @Bent  


I don't drink tea.  


I also don't wear a bowler hat, carry an umbrella or have crooked teeth.

Bent
Bent moderator

@Brendan @Hanknaples  


Does that include the five picks he got for Sanchez and the four he got for Braylon?  If so, then yes, he has wasted a lot of picks.

Brendan
Brendan

@Hanknaples Haha, you said something insane and I'm moving goalposts, Hanker? 


I'd be interested in your answers to two follow-up questions: 


Was Gholston a wasted pick? 


Did Mangini ever waste a pick? 

a57se
a57se

@Hanknaples

I said the same thing about Garrard last year when people kept bringing up him getting into the Pro Bowl....he was only the 8th choice...Sanchez would have gone if he had said no!

Bytor
Bytor

@Brendan @Hanknaples  Wouldn't it be fitting if we get DJax from the same 2008 draft? That'll go a long way in erasing the Gholston stench.

Brendan
Brendan

@Hanknaples Looooooooooooool.


Antonio Cromartie made it to the PB this year after having his worst season possibly ever. That is not a relevant barometer for measuring the success of a player. 

Brendan
Brendan

@Hanknaples  Hank, please don't be condescending, it's a fair question considering your son still defends Gholston on this blog. 


And thanks for clearing up that conversion rate. It's good to know five Sheldon Richardsons only equal one Anthony Schlegels. 

Bent
Bent moderator

@a57se @Bent  


Who, the Jets?  The assumption is that they have him lined up for a return, but both parties can explore other avenues until maybe post-draft, but really nobody knows for sure.


The Jets might be delaying until the FA signing period is over because if he gets an offer they can weigh up whether they want to match it or to improve their comp pick projection for next year.  Also, they might have an agreement but want to delay until after the draft so that their draft plans are less obvious.