Link: PFF rates the projected starters

Over at Pro Football Focus, they’re running their “Projected Lineups” series, where they highlight team needs by looking at the players under contract and representing this with their colored-coded assessment of how good each player is.

In a new feature this year, they’re also taking into account the potential they see for a player to improve (represented by a differently-colored outline), so that accounts for a young, developing player or an older player that is capable of performing better than they did last year.

Here’s this season’s image (click the link above for the full key):

There’s plenty of discussion fodder here, obviously. Read Bent’s thoughts after the jump.

Bent, TheJetsBlog.com

Somewhat alarmingly, the starting lineups are even weaker than the projections were when PFF did this same exercise last year. However, there are several reasons for this, the main one being that PFF did this in July last year which was obviously after the Jets had filled most of their needs via the draft and free agency. Even then, their projected lineups weren’t 100 percent accurate because they contained the likes of Stephen Peterman, Mark Sanchez, Josh Bush and Kenrick Ellis, a group who combined to play fewer than 300 snaps between them.

What this does highlight, though, is the the fact that the Jets need to address some of their needs sooner rather than later. With Austin Howard and Willie Colon out of contract, the offensive line depth is exposed and the overall strength of the starting lineups will become even weaker once the expected cap cuts are made. Essentially, it’s too early to project the starting lineup, but it does give a snapshot of the moves the Jets will be looking to make.

What’s more worthwhile at this time is looking at some of their assessments of the players the Jets have. It’s notable that a few players have been downgraded from last season, although most of them are shown as having the potential to improve. It emphasizes the amount of potential the Jets have that 11 of the 24 projected starters (they’ve included an extra slot guy on each side of the ball) are shown as having a potential change in class. However, that leaves the team with a lot of unknowns.

From the individual rankings, the main one I would take exception with is the one for Quinton Coples who, if healthy, will most likely be an impact player (as he was over the second half of the season). They describe him as “[not] going to put much fear into opposing offensive tackles as pass rushers at this stage in [his career]“. However, that’s likely based on his overall grade and not really factoring in the slow start he made due to a combination of his broken foot and his slight change in role.

You could also make a case for more of the younger players (Antonio Allen, Demario Davis, Brian Winters, Tommy Bohanon) having the potential to improve, which is not reflected here.

Be sure to read their rationale and their comments about the roster, cap situation and potential cap casualties here.




81 comments
metjetnet
metjetnet

(nee miketaliaferro) Also, of Bent's list, I'll give Allen, Winters, Bohannon upside potiential... The one who concerns me is Davis. He showed excitement spelling Bart Scott the yr before. But, for every stellar play I saw him make in his first starter year, I watched in horror at the 3 bonehead ones. They didn't strike me as learning-mode mistakes, but plain "doesn't get it," WTF? type screw ups. Especially, with Harris sliding/aging, Davis is going to be one of the prime players I'll be watching from OTAs onward, to see if he starts to show up as solid, rather than just flashy in spurts.

metjetnet
metjetnet

(nee miketaliaferro) Looking at that chart & its ratings, not only should Rex have held onto his job, he deserved a raise & COY consideration. All year, I thought this was his finest "coaching" performance, equal to Parcell's best year, the 8-8 year when Vinnie went down. Most guys can win with a full stable. It's when disaster strikes or you just don't have horses, that shows what a coach is made of...

marcus81
marcus81

if that were the Jets starting team for 2014, they would be under 500



joe11
joe11

What color would Austin Howard be if he was in this rating? 

kniff
kniff

It'll be interesting to see how Ebron, Amaro, and other TEs do at the Combine... cause I don't see us going FA on this one.


It will certainly tweak all the mocks!

juunit
juunit

Can make less of a case for the young guys. My big issue is none of our 3 blue chippers are full blue chippers. If they're not, who is?

harvlis
harvlis

This is a fair representation of where we stand, right now.  After free agency and the draft, we can be a very different team. I am not worried, just can't wait for all the moves.  We shall see if Idzik has a clue. 

Ron Alexander
Ron Alexander

@metjetnet  Maybe Winters will turn into a decent player but really his upside might be Matt Slauson who in hindsight we probably should have re-signed. As for Bohannon I doubt he'll amount to anything but a role player if he's lucky. He was rated at the very bottom of all NFL starters and on almost any other team would probably ended up on the practice squad if he were lucky.His scouting report was not impressive as he ran a 4.99 at the combine and really wasn't even a FB in college as he was used more as a H-back. From what I observed watching him through out his rookie season he seemed slow getting to the hole when blocking or running the ball and he seemed even slower on the few screen passes he caught as he was caught from behind by D-linemen on several occasions. Also his blocking was not very good either as Bent pointed out through out the season.I just don't think he's an NFL player. Allen showed progress last season which was some what stunted by the acquisition of Ed Reed so I agree the potential is there for him to develop into a good player.

kniff
kniff

@joe11  Mean and Green all day long Joe!! 

Mr. Idzik, please lock Howard down now!!

Pat d
Pat d

Hate to burst everyone's bubble but the most important thing about the combine are the interviews and the the measureables, such as how tall and actually weight. Once in a great while a player will have a great unexpected combine and may move up draft boards but more often than not are a bust.

kniff
kniff

@jake100  Yeah, and although he would be expensive, it reminds us that 57's guy, Orakpo is available....but that is an aquisition that's not really in Idziks style...

Would be nice though.

a57se
a57se

@juunit  

According to PFF, we don't have any blue chip players....

davem
davem

The same 3 guys wearing a different uniform?

Brendan
Brendan

@Pat d  You're kidding yourself if you think the physical testing doesn't matter at all. Everything at the combine matters, the physical tests are indicators for dedication, hard work, etc. They absolutely matter. 

Bent
Bent moderator

@Marcus Armstrong @juunit  IIRC they got a bunch of complaints last year that they were defining too many players as blue chip and they either re-did the numbers or stated that the next year they'd limit blue chip guys to the top guy at each position.


Assuming they pegged Watt, McCoy and whoever they rate as the top edge rusher as three of the four defensive linemen, I still think you can make an argument for Mo being next, but it's not clear cut.

harold
harold

Not one!  seems ridiculous

harvlis
harvlis

@jake100 @harvlis You trust.  I am still not sold on last year's draft and free agents.  I was very upset that he felt the need to force feed Geno, Winters, and Milliner.  Idzik still has to prove himself to me.  This offseason is wide open.  Lots of money, lots of decisions to be made on Jet free agents, lots of available free agents on the market, lots of draft picks, and a good deal of talent in the draft.  When this is all over, we will see if Idzik reminds us of Yankee management or Mets management.  Is he going to build a winner or waste our time. 

a57se
a57se

@Pat d  

Don't you love having your words misinterpreted.....:)

Pat d
Pat d

You're kidding yourself. First of all I didn't say physical testing doesn't matter. I stated what is most important.

Ron Alexander
Ron Alexander

@Bent @a57se @harold  I know you like the guy but i just didn't see the improvement you saw.Always respect your opinion but still don't see him as anything but maybe Matt Slauson 2.0. The only thing he did better than Ducasse is commit less penalty's. As far as the blocking went It may have been a push at best.

Brendan
Brendan

@Pat d  WIlkerson IS. He is as elite as it gets on the interior, with the exception of Suh and Watt. 

Pat d
Pat d

Mangold was. Wilkerson and Richardson are who I was referring to when I said they will soon have some blue chippers.

Brendan
Brendan

@Pat d  Wilkerson is a blue chip player without a doubt. Mangold is, too (ignore my avatar, I'm not biased in this at all). 

Pat d
Pat d

The Jets don't have any blue chip players. Before long they will on the D-line though.

juunit
juunit

@a57se @harold 

Then Flacco? No he wasn't. And Flacco had a much better offensive line too. 

Bent
Bent moderator

@a57se @Bent @harold  Complete speculation here on my part, but maybe they were kind to some quarterbacks who had to deal with struggling offensive lines.  That would explain why Geno and Tannehill rate better than expected.


FWIW Eli was a dark green (high quality starter) which goes to show that they're not just using last year's grades but a full body of work.

Brendan
Brendan

@harold  Flacco was outrageously bad for a SB MVP with a $100 million contract. Insultingly bad. He was Mark Sanchez, only there was 6'5 of him. 

a57se
a57se

@Bent @a57se@harold 

Geno should have been RED with the potential to grow to average.

Winters managed not to fall down as much.....that type of potential doesn't warrant much growth...haha!

Bent
Bent moderator

@a57se @Bent @harold  It is weird that Geno, Millner and Winters all improved over the last month and they see the potential for growth in Geno and Dee, but not Winters.

harold
harold

I don't think he was worst.  Flacco was really bad.  Unfortunately living in Baltimore I saw most of the games (When flipping over during breaks of Jets games).  He was terrible.  Majority of his picks came without pressure.

Bent
Bent moderator

@harold  I don't think it's any different to this year.  They've used the previous year's ratings to inform their ratings, but they don't appear to be set in stone.  What they have done differently this year is to have an "unknown" category instead of just assuming guys like Bush would be below average.

a57se
a57se

@harold  

Did you watch Tannehill last year? He was worse.

Marcus Armstrong
Marcus Armstrong

@a57se @Bent @harold  Flacco is bad. Romo is above average. Tannehill is probably average with upside, but yeah, I don't really have a problem with those.

harold
harold

Did you watch Flacco last year.  It was swept under the rug but he was terrible. 

a57se
a57se

@Bent @harold 

I was thinking about the QB's more than anything.

Geno as below average with Average potential when he was one of the lowest rated QB's...

Tannehill rated the same as Romo (light Green)and boith higher than Flacco.......

harold
harold

I can respect that,  my question was that last year it seemed to be based on their own ratings. 

Am I incorrect in that assumption?

Bent
Bent moderator

@harold


Something PFF say a lot is that performance is never consistent.  So if one player has a bad year, that doesn't make them a bad player.  A guy like Mangold isn't going to suddenly drop from elite to below average based on his grades because they recognize his talent and that there are obviously reasons why someone's level of play might drop off temporarily.

Bent
Bent moderator

@a57se @Bent @harold  That's why I said this is opinion based, while being informed by their data.

harold
harold

If that is what they are basing it okay.  I assumed they would use their own ratings.

Didn't they use their own last year?

Bent
Bent moderator

@a57se @harold  The six teams other teams still on the front page of their site have seven blue chippers between them, including the Eagles with three.  Two of the six have no blue chippers, like the Jets.


I believe it's based on first team all-pro, so there will be less than one per team on average.

a57se
a57se

@harold  

Look at some of the other team ratings......

harvlis
harvlis

@harold I know his potential from playing and watching sports my entire life and based on his college career, compared to the above mentioned superstars.  I would bet the house, right now, that Geno will never have a career like Manning, Aikman, or Favre.  Can he win, in the future -- of course but, he is not, and never will be at the level of those QBs.

harold
harold

And you know what his potential is based on what?

He has all the potential in the world.  Time will tell if he reaches it or not.

harvlis
harvlis

@bradysucks I do like Rex and feel that he can win it all for us.  I am glad that Idzik stuck with him.  Maybe, if he gives Rex a solid offense, we can do some serious damage.  Geno does not have the potential of Manning, Aikman, or Favre.  Idzik did not do a good job with QB, last season.  I hope that he surprises us all and gets a QB to compete with Geno.   

bradysucks
bradysucks

@harvlis @bradysucks


I don't really agree because even Peyton Manning, Troy Aikman, and Brett Favre struggled immensely as rookies. It happens,,,,,,If these guys (Geno, Winters, Milllner) have what it takes to succeed then their confidence will be just fine going into 2014......I don't think anybody meant for greatness lets a rough rookie year get in the way of their success.......


Idzik did a great job considering what he inherited,,,,,Nobody expected 8-8 in 2013...Obviously the job isn't finished for Idzik who made a smart decision retaining Rex

harvlis
harvlis

@bradysucks Geno was a turnover machine who should have been shown the bench many times, during the season.  We had Simms as our backup QB, that's it.  Winters was on his backside more than on his feet. Milliner was toast, up until making a few nice plays in the last three games.  I would love these players to become stars.  Maybe they will but, before I anoint Idzik as the next king, let's see how his last draft and this coming year works out. 


As for playing the rookies through thick and thin, only a rebuilding team, conceding the season, would do that.  If someone on the team gives you a better chance of winning, you play them and groom the rookie.  Sometimes, getting his tail kicked is bad for a rookies confidence.  We were 8-8.  Who knows if we could have been a playoff team, with an experienced QB and the rookies getting spot duty.  Not sold on Idzik, yet.  Hoping for the best. 

bradysucks
bradysucks

Idzik did a fantastic job considering how little he had to work with going into the 2013 season. Sure there were some mistakes but he drafted the best player in the entire draft with Richardson. He signed Chris Ivory and he retained Rex Ryan as coach. All things considered I give him a grade of an

A!

So what if he gave some rookies valuable experience. In life people learn by DOING not watching.....There is no replacement for experience and the experience the 2013 rookies got by playing is invaluable

harvlis
harvlis

@jake100 @harvlis Good post.  I agree with your analysis.  I am hoping that a healthy Milliner, with a full offseason program, turns into a quality corner and helps Idzik turn that chart blue and green.