Daily Links: Should I stay or should I go?

  • Who stays, who goes? [Metro]
  • Woody Johnson Super Bowl Q&A [ESPN NY]
  • Lupica weighs in on Geno [NY Daily News]
  • How Dave Herman survived and thrived at SB III [Star Ledger]
  • It’s a Jets coverage breakdown (the good kind) [GGN]



37 comments
kniff
kniff

BPA always seems to work, and I trust the Brass to put the pieces together...

mrblint
mrblint

I agree with A57se that Geno failed at being able to make the reads etc. My only point is that Kapernick failed similarly once he lost all those great targets. Having guys that get open makes it less critical to make the perfect read. Having a receiver who will win the jump ball makes it less likely to get picked off. Having a receiver that can catch a ball thrown behind them or above them or at their feet makes a QB much more accurate as does receivers that don't drop the ball. Geno has none of these things - This season I can't think of more than a half dozen really good catches ( catches where the receiver had to fight for the ball, or reach back, dive or one hand, or precisely time to keep their feet in bounds) made by a Jets receiver. There should be several per game.

MarshRandy
MarshRandy

I'm very worried about the guard spot. Colon played well for us besides all the penalties but he'll be coming off a serious injury which apparently has an extremely high rate of re-tear. Maybe OG should be our first FA move

mrblint
mrblint

Lupica is absolutely correct that the Jets haven't really got a good feel as to whether they have a bad, good or great QB in Geno, but he completely whiffs on the reason, We don't know if Geno is any good because he had ZERO weapons in the passing game. If you follow football this year there was a clear illustration of the importance of this factor. Early this year, the sports media's concensus future superstar Colin Kapernick played like Mark Sanchez for the first portion of the season. The media was dumbfounded - what was wrong with Kapernick? He wasn't running enough, he can't throw from the pocket, the league had figured him out... blah blah blah. The problem with Kapernick was that he was an inexperienced NFL QB who was missing his best receivers. End of story. People forget that a QB rating has 3 components. First, the QB's ability to read and throw accurately. Second, the ability of the receiver to get open, make adjustments, and catch catchable balls. Third, the abiliity of the QB to lead. 

It is is very rare for a QB to excell at leadership in their first few years. They haven't had time to develop the body of work, (stats, comebacks, great plays, consistency) to support any natural charisma and inherent leadership abilities. However, if they take care of first component mentioned and perform their task well, AND if their receiver corps does its job, they can be perceived as a developing into a leader. And as developing into a great QB. My point is simple. Geno had no weapons. When everyone was healthy he had one tight end that had too many drops (Cumberland) and one tight end that was too old to practice with (Winslow). He had 2 borderline number 2 receivers in Kerley and Holmes. And he had a revolving door of number threes. Finally his running backs have at best mediorcre pass catching ability. And that was not Geno's biggest problem. The biggest problem is that these guys were not healthy for most of the year and could not stay on the field in games or practice. Going back to the Kapernick example, The guy has 3 great ( number one quality)receivers to throw to in Crabtree, Boldin and Davis. When these guys were out early on, Kapernick looked bad. Later as they have gotten healthy suddenly Kapernick starts looking great again. The same held true for Geno... as his receivers got healthy he looked better, but in Geno's case, even healthy, his receivers were mostly medocre or bad. Nelson is a fourth, Kerley is a good third mediocre second, Holmes is a second. Hill is a bad number 1. And the rest of the roster were journeymen. The Jets under tannenbaum had a habit of elevating potential over performance (ie woodhead versus clowney, Vlad versus any linemen they cut) Hopefully the new management team has changed that with this mantra of Competition for each roster spot.

johnnyl65
johnnyl65

We all know the players that will be cut what I'm dying to see is the ones that will be back by forgoing enough salary to make it feasible for them to come back.

kniff
kniff

I'm all for keeping FAs Colon and Howard for next season, but I would have a hard time letting Winslow go as the article suggests.(but I could understand it)  I do want to draft a monster TE this year although it might not be Amaro like I am hoping. This position is KEY to our Offensive success!!


We should develop Winters and consider drafting another Guard this year. Vlad could stay as depth as long as he is not prohibitively expensive.


WR should be the first priority in both FA and the draft... Holmes is gone and Hill better not get greedy for money, as we do have to retain $ for our favorite Jet playmakers on both sides of the ball...


bob
bob

Top priority's for the Jets come draft time.


#1  1ST PICK WR.

#2  2nd PICK GUARD

#3 Pick. OLB and TE.


Guys Willie Colon has been injured  the last four years in a row and all though he played good this year he's turning 31 years old and Winter's? Will he progress next year? that still remains to be seen .. That's why we need a guard as 2nd priority.

a57se
a57se

@mrblint 

Fair point but how much of that could be attributed to the receivers figuring they're not gonna see the ball because Geno can't read the defense? It works both ways as some have argued that Geno didn't have faith in his receivers so he was late with his throws, his receivers may not have had any faith in him so weren't expecting him to throw them the ball.

Pat d
Pat d

You do realize you could make the same exact argument in regards to Sanchez.

a57se
a57se

@mrblint 

If we go by your 3 components to QB rating, Geno fails no. 1 which is the most important part. He has not shown the ability to read a defense properly or consistently throw an accurate ball.

No. 2 there were plenty examples of WR's getting open and Geno not throwing them the ball for whatever reason you wish to give, just check Bent's BGA's.

No. 3, Geno seems to be fine at leadership but that only lasts a short time when you can't do no. 1 very well.


a57se
a57se

@johnnyl65 

We are going to be near $50 Million under the cap after cutting Sanchez, Cro and Holmes......why are guys going to forego salary to play here?

kniff
kniff

@johnnyl65 I'm praying we can find a way to keep Cro...He might be able to make some plays at Safety as well as Cornerback, has good instincts, and knows our system well. Some serious salary concessions would be in order I'm sure.

Pat d
Pat d

You have to draft according to the teams draft board not need.

Bernard Mclaughlin
Bernard Mclaughlin

@bob I would rather  1-TE

                                   2-WR

                                    3-best available offensive player except for RB   

      Don't disagree with you need, but I would rather address the #1 WR need in FA, Rookie WR's seldom impact in year one. To me the game has changed so much and in Martys offense getting a stud TE who can block and catch , with Cumby in the other TE slot will be big for Geno.  I would also like to get an Offensive Guard in FA, that plus Winters Colon and possibly the two kids we carried on the roster should be enough( unless a stud falls to 3 in draft) Bye Bye Vladimir

 So  my FA order is 1. WR

                                2. safety

                                3. OG

                                4. QB

All out for a young WR and backup QB , lesser on the other two.

MarshRandy
MarshRandy

@bob @MarshRandy yea but that didn't work out for us great last year and we took a guard pretty high. It might work out with Winters in the long term but as a rookie he was a complete disaster

johnnyl65
johnnyl65

@a57se @johnnyl65 Lack of market for their services and a want to stay with current team.

It happens all the time in all sports.

bob
bob

@Pat d

Giants mostly draft needs last year draft was that.

MarshRandy
MarshRandy

@Pat d need comes into everything though. The Packers aren't gonna take a QB in the first round even if a QB is their highest player on the board at that point.

a57se
a57se

@Bernard Mclaughlin

So you don't want to pick a WR early because they seldom impact year one but you want to pick a TE early yet they usually have LESS impact then an early round WR because they are not ready to block NFL defensive players and need a year or two in NFL strength programs.

Jimmy Graham had 31 catches his rookie season and he still can't block.

Vernon Davis had 20 catches his rookie season.

Rob Gronkowski had 42 catches his rookie season.

Two of these guys had HOF QB's throwing to them.

bob
bob

@Bernard Mclaughlin@bob


We drafted Allen and Bush and are grooming Jaiquawn. there for OlB would be great getting to the QB. with that 3rd pic.


Note if Colon or Winters goes down where in trouble and pending on what Vlad wants for a pay day he may not be there. Or if winters doesn't step it up next year then what. I think its way to risky not to be prepared at the offensive line position.

bob
bob

@MarshRandy@bob


Sometimes a guard could take 3 to 4 yrs before they really start playing however Winters was throwing into the fire and made mistakes but the last 3 games he did start coming on...There's hope there yet.  We need to get it right in the draft I guess we got to keep trying soon or later will get it right and there's a good chance in the 2nd round we will. I think winters is going to make it.

johnnyl65
johnnyl65

@a57se @johnnyl65 To me it's like the draft you take the best available at the time and there's no reason to reach or overpay unless you're talking a once in  a generation player which were not. We'll see how good of a GM Idzik is,really good ones communicate well and have open channels of communication at all times.

a57se
a57se

@johnnyl65

Yes but that won't happen until after the draft and if you wait too long, you can end up missing out. 

a57se
a57se

@DrJonathanReefer 

Your point is valid but only an idiot would draft a 2nd or 3rd rounder in the first so why bother making that point?

Hill was projected as a late first-early second round pick so your example is no good.

DrJonathanReefer
DrJonathanReefer

But they also aren't gonna take the best WR or TE avilable in the first round if they have them graded out as a 2nd or 3rd rounder.

If a QB is highest, then you pick the next highest on the list. Not over draft for need. (Hill anyone?)

a57se
a57se

@Bent

How many of the 14 guys I listed became "STUD" TE's?

How many STUD WR's were drafted in the first round over the same time period?

a57se
a57se

@Bernard Mclaughlin

I understand where you are coming from but none of the TE's in this draft project that highly from what i can tell. CBS sports just upgraded their rankings and now only 1 TE has a 1st round grade while Amaro has slipped to a 1-2 range. 

I am not sold that any of these guys will become studs. there are quality guys you can draft later who, at worst, would be good blockers and redzone threats because of their size such as CJ Fiedorowicz and Marcel Jensen. The most talented TE in this draft is actually one of the lowest ranked because of off the field stuff. Colt Lyerla would probably be the no. 1 TE in this draft if he hadn't been convicted of cocaine Possession. He was given 2 years probation a week or so ago.

I would not take ANY of these TE's over Marquise Lee who could easily be the best player in this draft. If he isn't there when we pick and no one else has slipped to us, then maybe one of the TE's but even then, I'd rather trade back.

Bernard Mclaughlin
Bernard Mclaughlin

@a57se No I want to Pick a TE first because  there are no TE  in the FA, but a ton of number I and 2 receivers in both the FA and potentially in the draft as well.     I,d rather insure  we get a TE like one of the guys you have listed above  who can learn and still contribute this year especially with a QB like Geno who is better at throwing short possession passes. Then still get a WR at 2 and maybe 3 as well. And I,d take any of the numbers you gave on the first three  next year for a rookie TE who can block .Just looking at the names you've mentioned you have a better chance at picking a long term (and short term) helper at TE.

Bent
Bent

@a57se  But year one isn't the only reason you draft a player.  How many of these picks turned out to be good ones in the long run?  Considerably more than just Shockey.

a57se
a57se

@Bernard Mclaughlin  

To expand on this a little, here are the first round picks at TE since 2002:

Jeremy Shockey, no. 14, 2002

Daniel Graham, no. 21, 2002

Jerramy Stevens, no. 28, 2002

Dallas Clark, no. 24, 2003

Kellen Winslow, no. 6, 2004

Ben Watson, no. 32, 2004

Heath miller, no. 30, 2005

Vernon Davis, no. 6, 2006

Marcedes Lewis, no. 28, 2006

Greg Olsen, no. 31, 2007

Dustin Keller, no. 30, 2008

Brandon Pettigrew, no. 20, 2009

Jermaine Gresham, no. 21, 2010

Tyler Eifert, no. 21 2013

Of these, Jeremy Shockey is the only one who really excelled as a rookie. Kellen Winslow did almost nothing, Dallas Clark had 29 catches. Tyler Eifert caught 39 balls which for a rookie TE is a good year.

The only guy on this list who significantly helped his team is Shockey.


First round WR's are much more impactful then this group.

 

bob
bob

@kniff


 Cant hurt to have 2 young strong  guards . I guessing Winters will work out and be great however drafting a stud in the 2nd roung to help Mangold and D,Brick in the future to prolong those guy may be a good idea..

kniff
kniff

@bob @Bernard Mclaughlin I think we all agree that we need to draft or pick up a stud Guard in FA. Colon is 31, and Winters is developing... Vlad might have to go.