Daily Links: Around The League

  • ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. snubs Sheldon Richardson for defensive rookie of the year [NJ]
  • Jerry Jones favors expanding the playoffs [PFT]
  • Texans owner Bob McNair: Houston open to trading No. 1 pick [CBS]
  • Final playing-time breakdown: WR [ESPN NY]
  • Indications are Mike Munchak will return to Titans [NFL]
133 comments
frustjetfn
frustjetfn

Jerry Jones wants more teams in the playoffs. No way. All we need is more 8-8 or even 7-9 teams in the playoffs. And if they don't change the playoff rules we can see ,more 12-4 teams traveling to play weak 8-8 Division leaders at home. I say, fix the seating rules first to base it on record for home games.


While the NFL is at it, it can also throw out strength of schedule as tie breaker for playoffs and draft and replace it with playoff appearances in the last 5 years. That way the historic have-not franchises can have a little better shot at success than the big dogs. It'd give their fans something to root for if they somehow finish with the same record as the more dominant franchises.

djf1
djf1

If we still had Tanny, I'd almost bet he'd be trading up in this draft.  Idzik doesn't strike me as someone who'd do that in the early rounds, although there's little to go on there.  what do you guys think?

GhostofBrowningNagle
GhostofBrowningNagle

(i'm sure someone has already said this but..)


Of course j jones wants to expand the playoffs, since his team narrowly misses every year.    Personally, i don't want expansion.  The playoffs are already enough of a crapshoot.  why further marginalize the regular season?

nesboogie
nesboogie

1. Ebron/Amaro

2. Odell/Jarvis/Benjamin/Robinson/Richardson/Matthews

3. Best OL/OLB

3. BPA

4. Deanthony Thomas

nesboogie
nesboogie

S/o to Mizzou. That's my school. Winners of the cotton bowl. Kony Ealy, Michael Sam and EJ Gaines will be great in the NFL.

nesboogie
nesboogie

This draft is flooded w/ great WRs prospects

nesboogie
nesboogie

Why Amaro > Ebron? I, personally, prefer Ebron.

bob
bob

Maybe keep an Eye On Marty Mornhinweg see what colleges he going to looking at players . May get a hunch who the Jets may draft.

jake100
jake100

I just read an article that our oline..... Mangold, Brick, Colon and Howard all graded out just around the average mark and Winters well below. I know some of that can be attributed to Winters have major problems, but with the uncertainty of Colon, age/injury, hoping Winters will be at least an average guard which is not proven yet by far, do you think we are shaky concerning the oline?  We were real lucky with injuries this season, but getting back to the above, combined with just one major injury to either Howard, Brick or Mangold, how much of a concern should the oline be this off season?

bradysucks
bradysucks

Trading up in the draft is how the Jets got both Revis and Keller. It is also how the Giants got Manning. There is nothing wrong with trading up if you get a player who produces. The problem is when you trade up for a guy like Stephen Hill who had no production in high school or college. That is just plain gambling - much more so than when we traded up for Revis who was dominant in college and had all the intangibles you hope for

juunit
juunit

@djf1 

I could maybe see packaging our two 3rd rounders to move up into the 2nd. Otherwise, I agree and don't expect us to trade up earlier than that. 

jaygo
jaygo

@djf1 


I would be surprised if he trades up in any material way.  We need depth all around in addition to offensive weapons and defensive secondary.  Tanny's moves of the past few years left us thin all over the place.  We need bodies.

a57se
a57se

@djf1 

I would hope a good GM would not be rigid in his thinking and would do whatever was in the best interest of the team. If that meant trading up, then so be it.

djf1
djf1

@GhostofBrowningNagle yeah, no thanks to expanding the playoffs. 

less playoff teams is what makes every NFL game so meaningful.

GhostofBrowningNagle
GhostofBrowningNagle

i would rather see them axe the division nonsense and just take the top 6 teams in each conference.

jetlife
jetlife

@nesboogie 

I thought Idzik's strategy was


1: BPA

2: BPA

3: BPA

3: BPA

4: BPA

bob
bob

@MarshRandy


So good to see ya  MarshRandy  we missed ya buddy

juunit
juunit

@nesboogie 

People like credit card fraud? Amaro was arrested for it last year...

jaygo
jaygo

@jake100 


In the minority on this one year after year here, I think they need to devote a high pick (one of the 3's) and one or more low picks to the OL.  Best draft in years here brought in Mangold and Brick, and we need to do it again both to shore up some holes and to add depth.  Colon is a short term proposition and I don't trust Winters/Vlad.  An injury to Howard, Brick or Mangold and we're lost.  For some reason, this organization just doesn't value OL guys and thinks you can win with retreads and low pick guys.  Look at the perennial good teams and they always make sure the OL is solid as a priority.  Nothing works with a bad OL.  Best way to improve the QB and RBs is to have a great line.


I know, most of you think the OL is above average as is if not great and, once again like with Sanchez, it's all the QB's fault for holding the ball too long, missing reads, etc.  You are entitled to your opinion but respect a different one. Geno has a lot to learn for sure but I saw a porous OL for most of season.  I also know y'all wanna quote PFF and other analytics to tell me we're just fine. I like the work of PFF and others like it but, for a zillion reasons, I just don't think stats work in football as easily as other sports.  As someone famously said, I don't need to read an opinion poll to know my opinion.  


Get me the best OL guy, preferably a guard, with the second 3rd round pick and then take a tackle or two in the 5th, 6th and 7th.  Let Winters and the rookie compete.  Last year I wanted to use one of the firsts for a LG.  Got voted down heavily on that here and obviously the team didn't do it. I know y'all disagree again and I doubt the team will do it this year either but this fan would welcome it.  Entitled to my opinion based on playing for years and watching longer.    

Bent
Bent

@jake100  I know you'll just dispute anything I say because "analysts" say otherwise.  So...here's what Cimini says:


"The sack total (47) looks bad on paper, but it's deceiving because many of them resulted from Smith's inexperience. Truth be told, the line was solid, gaining traction in the running game over the final two months. The weakest link was rookie left guard Winters. The other four played well."


For once he's right.

joemustgo
joemustgo

Drafting Hill in the second round was gambling. Trading up to do it was irresponsible.

a57se
a57se

@juunit

     With four compensation picks coming our way and if they break down like Bent suggested in his BGA(4,5,7,7) the most logical picks to trade would be our 4th, 5th and 7th rounders since we still have picks later in those rounds.

     I'd throw in our 6th rounder as well.....this is ~ 133 points in trade value.

That is equal to 2 places in the first (from 18), 12 places in the second, 16 in the third (TB pick), and 22 places from our 3rd round pick.

     Most trade ups do not command exact trade value equality and most from last year were 90% of value or less so my estimates are very conservative. The Jets would have the flexibility to target players in the mid to late second and early third rounds quite easily and still come away with 8 players from the draft. This is much different then what Tanny did when we ended up with 3 or 4 players.


bklyndude
bklyndude

@jaygo @djf1 The only time to trade up in the first round is for a franchise QB or a player that could put the team over the top as a true contender.

Trading up in round two or three is probably how to get the most out of the extra picks the Jets have if they want to move up in the draft.

djf1
djf1

@jaygo@djf1 yeah, but we have 12 picks, and there's no way we can realistically keep them all.

MarshRandy
MarshRandy

@djf1 @MarshRandy yea, I'm a big tweeter but didn't wanna link my account so I just created a dummy account for this

Bent
Bent

@jaygo @jake100 JayGo - What PFF do is NOT "stats".  They've literally watched every single snap and graded every player based on what happened.  Just because the end product is a number, that doesn't make it the same as sack numbers or other limited statistics, because it is based on qualitative analysis. 


Besides, if anything, the PFF numbers understate how good the individual linemen because they don't account for the knock-on impact of the two rookies at LG and QB.

Bent
Bent

@jaygo @jake100 A guard picked 18th is certainly easier to stomach than one that gets picked 9th.

djf1
djf1

@Bent@jake100 is there a breakdown of who is responsible for those sacks by position?

jake100
jake100

@Bent @jake100 

That is fair, I was just looking for opinions on this. I do realize a portion of the sacks were on Geno and we didnt exactly have top notch wrs around him. Also, it was like a revolving door with wrs, so chemistry was an issue. Are you confident that the line is in good shape for this season, just curious? At the end of November PFF, had us ranked 27th with a -33 overall rating. I am more concerned with Colons age and injury, If Winters will pan out and a little shaky on depth, if we have just one major injury to a starter. Your thoughts?

a57se
a57se

@bklyndude 

Oh, I have a pretty good idea where you are coming from.

bklyndude
bklyndude

@a57se @bklyndude  The early picks are the hardest to screw up

Yet teams do…

And I agree the rest of the draft can determine how good an evaluator the GM is,  but it usually takes a few years to know about those picks.  

At the moment Winters has started a bunch of games and has flashed some ability after a really rough beginning and Chris Ivory has shown to be a good player.

I just think when you say he could have done a lot better, you are being a pretty tough on Idzik.

a57se
a57se

@bklyndude@a57se 

I disagree. The early picks are the hardest to screw up...you don't need to be a great talent evaluator to be successful picking at the top of the draft.

The rest of the draft is where the rubber meets the road.....

a57se
a57se

@Bent@a57se@juunit 

Ideally, yes! 

We do have the luxury of using the 4th as well if we need to jump a little more...... the TB pick plus our 5th and 6th could get us 8 or 9 maybe 10 at best slots.....while OUR 3rd pick (80) plus our 5th and 6th would get us to our TB pick!

Plenty of movement if we have a guy we just HAVE to get!



bklyndude
bklyndude

@a57se @bklyndude I think if you don't make a big mistake early and come away with two potential Pro Bowl type players which I think Millner and Richardson can become,  the draft has to be considered pretty good.

And if Geno continues to improve,  not saying he will,  but he seems to have shown enough to continue as a potential answer at QB,  then he could be another decent pick, especially for a 2nd rounder.

Bent
Bent

@a57se @juunit I'd say the 5th and 6th make the most sense to trade because you have an extra pick at the start of (well, before) each of those rounds.

a57se
a57se

@juunit@a57se 

Got all that juunit. The point is we do have flexibility and that 4th round pick is a good chip if there is someone we really want to move up for.

juunit
juunit

@a57se@juunit 

I don't honestly believe a team is going to take 6th and 7th rounders to let us move up in the 2nd or 3rd round very far. Maybe if it's the team picking immediately before us and they don't want the player we're gonna take. 

While I didn't like Tanny, he never entered a draft with an extra 3rd and four compensation picks either. 


Also, don't forget that compensation picks come at the end of the round. So basically that 4th rounder is the only one with a decent value as it's basically a 5th rounder. The two 7ths literally just guarantee two UDFAs of our choice will be in training camp.

a57se
a57se

@bklyndude

Moi?

I think he could have done a lot better then he did.

Bent
Bent

@a57se @Bent Yes.  That's why you have to put things like PFF in the correct context.  In terms of how many sacks they gave up this year, Chris Clark is a better LT than D'Brickashaw Ferguson, but we know that's nowhere near true.

a57se
a57se

@Bent@a57se 

On Blitz recognition, the better QB's get burned far less because of their awareness and that is another area of hidden yards that they help their teams with immensely!

Bent
Bent

@a57se @Bent 1. Brick is terrific IMO.  He has a few years left.


2. Coverage sacks almost always are on the QB.  That's likely what most of the eight credited to Geno were classified as.


3. This is more difficult to determine.  Could be the center or just the nearest man, but yes the QB also could be at fault.  Tis better for PFF to treat those as unattributed than just guess whose fault it was though.


I'd imagine there are fewer unattributed sacks on those teams where the QB has great blitz recognition.  Not because those QBs would be at fault if it was a sack, but because they can get rid of it better.  Sure enough, Denver gave up 20 sacks and only four were unattributed.

a57se
a57se

@Bent 

Three things Bent;

1. Shouldn't the Jet be thinking about Brick's successor? His play has seemed to decline the last few years.

2. Shouldn't coverage sacks be on the QB? There are not many things that are more frustrating as a fan then watching the QB hold the ball and hold the ball then get sacked....throw the darn thing away if there is nothing there!

3. Same with unblocked rushers, shouldn't the QB diagnose that as part of his pre-snap read and adjust the pass pro accordingly? There were several times this year where it was obvious a CB was blitzing and out QB sent the RB elsewhere or didn't change his assignment.


Not trying to pile on our QB, just trying to see things clearly.

Bent
Bent

@djf1 @Bent @jake100 Usually, you can get an unattributed coverage sack too though.  Sometimes he might have made the right decision to scramble but it would still end up being credited as a sack if he doesn't get back to the line.  

Bent
Bent

@djf1 @Bent @jake100 This is inexact because if (say) Winters gets beat and Smith steps up and Howard's man sacks him, then Howard will get "credited" with the sack and Winters a pressure.  That's why the pass blocking grades are often a better indicator because on such a play Winters would probably get the worse grade.


Anyway per PFF:


Winters 10

Brick/Geno 8

Bohanon/Howard/Ducasse 2

Colon/Powell/Ivory 1

Unattributed 11 (unblocked rusher or coverage sack)


Note: Mangold = 0

jake100
jake100

@Bent @jake100 


Thanks Bent, yeah, Winters is the key and as you point out, Vlad would be decent insurance.

Bent
Bent

@jake100 @Bent It all hinges on Winters getting better.  If Winters continues to struggle (and the recent uptick was shown to be an aberration) then that's going to continue to bring the rest of the line down.  I would hope they wouldn't continue to start him if that was the case, because upgrading wouldn't be that difficult.


Obviously bringing back Colon and Howard is a priority.


And losing Vlad (a legitimately solid utility depth guy) would create one more need.