Daily Links: More TD passes, fewer interceptions




105 comments
MoSacks MoSnacks
MoSacks MoSnacks

The Cover32 site left Mangold off the list of 10 best interior O-Linemen in 2014....What? And of course Wilkerson was left off the top 10 de's and dt's list. Seriously, go get a life Cover32.

a57se
a57se

Geno Smith Needs to Improve, But How?

Interesting take on Geno and areas he needs to improve on....

I am not so sure you can learn 'anticipation' at this level like the author asserts.

The mechanical issues have been obvious to me for a while...they are very difficult to correct at this level.

Brendan
Brendan

Bored and stuck waiting for a meeting to start, so I figured I'd take the time to just get ahead of the next Joey rant before he reads Cimini's latest article.


With regards to Breno: 


"The Jets took a calculated risk in free agency, letting a young, ascending right tackle (Austin Howard) walk out the door and replacing him with the unheralded Giacomini."

Typical Dickard BS. "Ascending" Howard. "Unheralded Giacomini." And yet, NFL analysts (real ones, Rich) seem to all know who Giacomini is and think he's a rather good RT. And Howard, for all his ascension, is no longer playing RT. 

" It wasn't a small contract, either, as Giacomini signed a four-year deal for $18 million, including $7 million in guarantees."

Compared to the "ascending" Howard who got 5 years, $30 million with $15 guaranteed, that's great value. 

"He and Howard are comparable players," 

Agreed.

"although the Jets expect Giacomini to contribute more in the running game than Howard did."

And Breno's been documented to be a better run blocker than Howard, so game on. 

"He comes from a run-oriented offense, the Seattle Seahawks, but Giacomini must make the transition from a zone-based blocking scheme to a gap scheme."

Fair point, although Breno being a very physical player who is strong at the point of attack lends one to think he's fully capable of making the transition. 



machoking
machoking

I like David nelson.  However, the article is true, he may have looked good on a bad team.  I just feel to have one guy who is sure handed and is out of the spotlight would be nice.  I think I would rather lose Hill then Nelson....

Brendan
Brendan

@MoSacks MoSnacks I wouldn't expect Mangolden Grahams to be on there, but Wilk? The guy was an All-Pro last year, give the man his due. 

harold
harold

@a57se

Of course anticipation improves as you play.  Just in the last month he threw the ball with better timing.  As he continues he will grow.  What we cannot yet determine is the degree to which his anticipation will improve.

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se Everything is difficult to correct, if it wasn't then guys like Matt Simms would be All-Pro. 


And you can certainly improve anticipation. You're not born with the ability to anticipate a defense, it comes through reps, both so you can develop timing and rapport with your receivers and so you can visualize and see how defenses react to certain situations. It's all about raising your football IQ, which is certainly something you can improve upon over time. 

a57se
a57se

@Brendan 

Aren't the Jets moving to more of a ZBS since MM arrived anyway? Wasn't that part of the rationale for Vladdie being thrown to the curb as he fit better in a power blocking scheme?

Brendan
Brendan

@Dr. Jonathan Reefer The talent is a prerequisite also, but as you stated Geno has plenty of that so with him it's about hard work. He doesn't goof off in the classroom, he's a student of the game and his coaches love his work ethic. Signs point to the guy improving in this regard, but obviously we'll have to wait and see. 

a57se
a57se

@harold 

His completion percentage was actually slightly worse the last 4 games of the season then it was the first 8 games... I didn't see that improvement.

What he improved upon was not turning the ball over by running more and not throwing late over the middle.

Bent
Bent moderator

@Brendan @a57se I would imagine it's similar to court vision in basketball, which I think can definitely be improved upon over time and can be helped by repetition, playbook familiarity and effective coaching.

Bent
Bent moderator

@a57se @Brendan


Well, they continue to use both elements which is the same as Schotty, whereas Sparano/Guge was more of a pure man-blocking scheme (although there were some zone elements here too at times).


One difference is that the stretch zone play on outside runs is more of a staple, whereas with Sparano's scheme you tend to get pulling linemen leading the way.  That play is also a staple in Seattle, so that's good.


I had been speculating that maybe getting Breno rather than Howard might be a precursor to a move to more zone blocking, but recent interviews suggest that's not the case.  Having said that, if it's something he excels at, maybe it's something they'll have more success with when they do it than they did previously, which might lead to more of it.

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se Well, in reality very few teams are strictly one scheme or the othe. Schotty was mostly zone, Tony was a combo guy and I think most of us assumed Marty would bring a ZBS, but in reality they use a combination system that leans towards Zone, but isn't a true ZBS. The fact that they use elements of both should make the transition less difficult for Breno. 

Bent
Bent moderator

@a57se @harold Here's where accuracy percentage is useful.  That's a PFF stat that filters out drops, throw aways, spikes and so on.  Geno was 26th out of 27 qualifiers just ahead of Eli on 67.4.


Over the last four games he was 73.9, 63.0, 75.9 and 66.7.  So he was above twice and below twice.  When it was above that was by bigger margins though.


In summation, I'd suggest he did become more accurate even if the stats don't reflect this because he threw the ball away more or whatever.

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se But his QB rating was higher, indicating that while he may not have connected on as many passes (and the difference was negligible at 59.2% vs. 58.6%), but he was better as an overall passer. He was more effective per-pass in the final four games.

Brendan
Brendan

@Bent Right. When I transitioned to PG I had to work on that exact skill. I just spent hours with this goofy set of goggles (they blocked your view downward so you couldn't see what your hands were doing) and dribbled everywhere. Eventually, I was dribbling with both hands effortlessly without looking down. And from there, my court vision skyrocketed because I was able to just keep everything in view and began to see how the ebb and flow of the bodies went, which lead to being able to anticipate them. 


If Geno is dedicated to his craft (which by most accounts, he is) and he has good coaching to support and mentor him (which by most accounts, he does) he should be able to improve on his anticipation as he gains experience. 


Going from Big East defenses to the NFL is like going from MLS to the Champions League, so adjustments should be expected. 

buckets
buckets

Agree. To me it's a matter of how much these skills can be improved, and what the short term impact vs long term benefit is.

Bent
Bent moderator

@Brendan @a57se I wouldn't say Schotty was "mostly zone".  In fact, sometimes they took out the zone stuff altogether.  When the line really got churning though, tended to be at the times when they used a lot of zone stuff.

gbrownn
gbrownn

@machoking I agree with you brah, Don't think Hill makes it out of camp. If he does, can't really see what he brings to the team over a solid guy like Nelson. We need dependable guys. He's got 4 weeks to prove to be just dependable, something he has yet to prove at this point in his career.

a57se
a57se

@Bent @a57se @harold 

Bent if his average was 67.4 for the whole season then it stands to reason it was also better than the mean the first 8 games since games 9-12 were so poor...

you really didn't show any improvement there either.

Bent
Bent moderator

@Brendan @Bent Right, but not just in terms of keeping your head up and being aware of what was going on around you, but specifically in terms of anticipation as 57 mentioned.  If you can release a pass before the cut happens because you know it's about to happen and that it's going to make that guy open and in that spot, you start to be able to control games.


And not just on offense.  You can similarly get into a zone on defense where you know exactly what's coming and you're a step ahead of your guy at every moment and also ready to step into a passing lane or cut off a drive at any point.

Disgruntled Jets Fan
Disgruntled Jets Fan

@Brendan @Bent I need those goggles, I'm terrible at no look dribbling. Though, it's not very good when I'm looking, either.

 we should have a TJB game some time.


Brendan
Brendan

@Bent Yeah, I was mostly thinking in '09/'10, when the run game was a force and carried the offense. But they still had gap elements and their bread-and-butter play was an inside trap with a pulling guard, so I'm fine saying Schotty/Callahan were combo guys. 

machoking
machoking

@gbrownn  Hill could be awesome... but we can't really wait for that and we now have other weapons. So, having a sure handed guy who runs solid routes, is a huge help....


Nelson does not drop the Hill pass that could have won that Pats game for us early in the season.


Dig it!!

buckets
buckets

I think there's about 8% chance a healthy Hill gets cut.

Brendan
Brendan

@Bent Oh, I know all about defensive anticipation. It was probably the sharpest tool in my arsenal and one that set me apart from the scrubs (you know, besides my world class athleticism). 

Bent
Bent moderator

@Brendan @Bent Yeah in '08 and '09 they did it a lot and then when Slauson replaced Faneca they stopped, presumably to try and simplify things as they assimilated him into the scheme.  Then they ramped up the zone stuff as the season went on and it got them going down the stretch (and carried them in that great playoff win in Indianapolis).

Brendan
Brendan

@machoking To be fair, the team has two WR's better than Hill (Decker/Kerley) and one who is arguably better (Nelson). The rest of the depth chart is a mix of unproven or worse and Hill has every chance to beat them out. In fact, being on the team already and having his size/speed, he could be perceived as having an advantage over those players. 

machoking
machoking

@buckets  Here is the description of Hill: Doesn't catch the ball with his hands and looks uncomfortable.  Needs to improve his route running. 


Is that what you want to hear about your #2 WR? Cmon... the guy has size and speed, but he needs to be wayyy better with his hands....

gbrownn
gbrownn

@buckets I think it's more like 80 honestly. A lot more likely then some people think. Brought in 6 new pass catchers(7 in if you throw in CJ) for a reason, Hill just isn't that good. Maybe he can improve, but it would have to be drastic improvement. He's pretty much gotta get better at every aspect of playing WR in my opinion.

SackDance99
SackDance99

@Brendan @Dr. Jonathan Reefer Lies, damn lies and statistics.  If you cherry pick stats, then there's this: if you consider seasons to be in quarters, in Geno's 3rd quarter, left out in this discussion, his completion percentage was 40.5%.  In his final quarter he improved to 58.6%.  So, how do you judge Geno's improvement?  As a rookie, he started out okay, defensive coordinators caught on to his tendencies and he tanked, and then he finished strong showing that he could still be an effective QB despite DC's trying to take away his favorite options (hence, more runs).

As I've said before, if Geno ups high percentage passes to his RBs and TEs (an aspect that is a hallmark of MM's WCO, but was not used last season because of personnel), he could easily get to the 60% completion plateau.

Brendan
Brendan

@Bent And with my balky knees, we better play this game in a pool with a mini-hoop or something. If we played for real we'd end up looking like the Tune Squad at halftime. 

machoking
machoking

@Brendan @machoking  Well, I don't think he will be cut... I just don't think he is a difference maker. I hope he proves to be the stud that we thought he could be..... but I'm not confident.

buckets
buckets

Not really. Honestly I'd put it at 0.5%

bklyndude
bklyndude

@machoking @buckets

It may turn out he was over drafted and never becomes a true #2 WR.  But does that mean he can't be useful as a #3 or #4 ?

Teams rarely draft 21 year old WR's in the second round with sub 4.4 speed at 6'4" that they know needs time to develop and then cut them before the start of their third season.

Idzik clearly has brought in enough raw rookies that he would think about it,  but I'm fairly sure Stephen Hill will make this years team. His role may not be set in stone yet.

hitchhiker
hitchhiker

Keeping in mind Hill is going into his 3rd year, still has no clue how to run routes & is still catching the ball with his body, I'd be shocked if he contributes to the team this year in a manner that meets expectations for a 3rd year high round draft pick.

jsadolph
jsadolph

@gbrownn 

He doesn't drop as many as people paint him to and his biggest fault to this point has been staying healthy.  If he can do that and have a quality offseason with Geno, he will be fine.

maynard
maynard

Hey sounds like the type of game my 64 yr old legs could handle. I,m in! And Brendan I had those same type of glasses in 1962 but I had to make them with my dads old glasses with lenses out and cardboard and tape!

Brendan
Brendan

@machoking One thing that Lal said in an interview at OTAs gave me a bit of hope with Hill. We spent a lot of time in the past talking about how great it would be if Hill learned to use his body and box out receivers. He's apparently started doing that in practice, and while Lal gave the "no pads" disclaimer, the fact that Hill is doing it at all is a positive sign. With his size and leaping ability, he should be a true threat to go over the top of the defense. Maybe he's finally "figured it out." 

machoking
machoking

@bklyndude  The thing is, new GM.... new raw rookies.  This guy should be playing better (And I'll give you that Geno didn't always see him) but those excuses don't keep you on a roster.  So, while I rip him, I do hope he plays better then I project.... but I don't see us having a helpful 3rd/4th option who might not catch the ball.... That's not a good 3rd option.

gbrownn
gbrownn

@Brendan I saw that interview as well, you're right that Hill is doing it at all is a positive. But gotta see it in the pads man, I'll change my tone right up if I ever see Hill box out a defender and go up and get the ball over somebody just one time.Just ONE time, I haven't seen it once in his whole career. He gets pushed around too much for someone his size, he lets freaking Alfonzo Dennard rough him up at the line.

jsadolph
jsadolph

@machoking @jsadolph @gbrownn 

You do realize that they calulate drops by how many times they are thrown to.  Not per season. 

He was just not thrown to last year for what ever reason.

machoking
machoking

@bklyndude @machoking  Kinda.... He is a WR, he needs to be able to catch and get open. Those are two of his weaknesses.  The best play he has is a fly route where he can just burn someone.... but then you're hoping it's a perfect ball and a lack of D, cause he might drop it.... no good.

gbrownn
gbrownn

@jsadolph Isn't his drop rate the worst in the league of any receiever the past 2 years?  Stats can be skewed but when you watch him play, he's a bonafide body catcher. I can't call a receiver who catches the bulk of his passes in this league relaible until I see him routinely extend away from his body to make the catch. Body catchers don't last in the league.

Brendan
Brendan

@Bent Well now you have to. We can make you internet famous!

harold
harold

@Marcus Armstrong

That was a pretty weak call.  All he did was hold him off and then go get the ball.

If that is OPI we should have 5 more OPI every week. 

gbrownn
gbrownn

@Marcus Lol true, but he still let the ball come into his body to make the catch. If he uses his 6'4 frame and ridicoulus vertical to go up and get that ball, I'd be impressed.

bklyndude
bklyndude

@machoking @bklyndude

He was terrible his first year dropping the ball. In fact I was shocked at how many awful drops he had.  But he did improve on that last year and was showing signs of becoming a useful player.

Having a rookie QB who was having his own troubles adjusting to the NFL did not help in Hill's development.   And then Hill got hurt and missed a bunch of games at the end of the season.

I would agree it's time to show up in camp and show everybody you are ready to play.

Brendan
Brendan

@gbrownn His drop rate was still poor last year (he was 67th out of 80-something WR's), but it's nowhere near the worst, which belonged to Davone Bess (25%!). 

gbrownn
gbrownn

@Brendan What was it his rookie year?

gbrownn
gbrownn

@a57se Ok, it was ONE of the worst the passed 2 years. Better?

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se 3 drops on 27 catchable passes, a 11.11% rate. 

Brendan
Brendan

@gbrownn 22.22%, but in a small sample size. If he qualified, that would have been ranked last on the list of qualified players, but opening up the list to people with his low amount of snaps would have a lot of players with worse drop rates included. 


Basically, he was still bad, but he didn't play enough to really get a good read. 

gbrownn
gbrownn

@Brendan Thanks for info B, Im not a stat guy at all, but I think Im going to go grab a pff premium subscription to get stats like these. For situations just like this one.

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se That actually is true. Hill's had one of the worst drop rates combined in '12 and '13. It improved significantly in '13 (cut it in half, actually), but it was still quite high. 

Brendan
Brendan

@gbrownn If you have the extra money to get a yearly subscription, I highly recommend it. They're such a useful tool to lend context to discussions like this one.