Daily Links: Never tell me the odds

  • The odds of Pryor or Amaro winning rookie of the year [Star Ledger]
  • Geno was better in the 1st and 4th quarter, Vick in the 2nd and 3rd [PFF]
  • Great article breaking down Geno’s 2013 campaign [B/R]
  • The importance of Jeremy Kerley [Fan IQ]
  • Enemkpali: There’s nothing extra I can bring to this defensive line [Jets Official Site]
  • Why Kenrick Ellis might not make the team [iSportsWeb]



119 comments
jdb4
jdb4

ISportsweb is an example why some people should not be allowed to speak in the internet.


Cut ELLIS!!!?  WTF is that guy on a speedball.  There is no way the team dumps solid D-line depth.  There is no way that if they move him, he gets cut.  At the MINIMUM he is worth a 3rd rounder to half a dozen teams.

MoSacks MoSnacks
MoSacks MoSnacks

I would just like to point out that at I stated how important kerley was to our offense DURING THE season. I give myself 3 butt pats

Pete 57
Pete 57

NFL network is saying a Jet will be revealed in their top 100, between 50 and 41. Wilkerson?

tsjc68
tsjc68

From the Enemkpali article:


It’s difficult for any rookie draft choice to avoid the spotlight in the weeks leading up to training camp.IK Enemkpali, however, has the opposite problem and might need to do a little bit more than most to capture the attention of Jets coaches and fans...

...And finally, his position — defensive end — isn’t exactly one of need for the Green & White after we retained every contributing member of our disruptive defensive line from the 2013 season.


Um, isn't Enemkpali lining up at SAM and RUSH and competing with Coples/Pace/Cunningham/Reilly et. al. for snaps there?  Doesn't he have a linebacker's number?  Isn't this something that a reporter writing on the Jets official website should note?


Yes, we retained all of our stellar defensive linemen.  That should make it harder for TJ Barnes and Kerry Hyder to win a spot... doesn't really have a ton of bearing on whether or not Enemkpali wins a spot, that has more to do with how Garrett McIntyre and Antwan Barnes and Jermaine Cunningham look.

idothis2
idothis2

since PFF doesnt chart double teams to a DLineman to reflect the impact  (+/-) of the player effectiveness, i was wondering if PFF charts the wide receivers that are doubled to reflect the impact (+/-) of the player effectiveness in their grade. for example, if a wr is doubled, does the wr get a + grade for the defense paying more attention to him?

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se Care to comment on the good BR article about Geno, that concluded he definitely improved in the final 1/4 of the season? 

Bent
Bent moderator

@a57se He played poorly most of the year, of course his stats/rankings are going to look bad.

harold
harold

@a57se

You realize these are total stats. Geno stats were greatly damaged by the Kerley absence.  However, I look at those 11 and 1/2 games with Kerley and Geno was very good by rookie standards.  Don't know what else to tell you.  I am very excited based on those performances. 

Bent
Bent moderator

@idothis2 No, but just like with linemen, he's more likely to get a higher grade if he is successful against them and wouldn't likely get graded down if he wasn't.


This would be very difficult to account for anyway.  I mean, if you faced Revis in his prime, then you'd be more likely to have success throwing to the guy being doubled.

Bent
Bent moderator

@Brendan The more hilarious part of that survey is that two nations voted England as their second choice for the nation that has the most attractive style of play.  And also that Americans picked America as the team they'll be rooting against!


And to balance out the fact I'll get told off by 57 for referencing soccer on TJB, I would like to add that a guy I know actually appeared in the most recent episode of Game of Thrones.

jdb4
jdb4

@a57se @jdb4 Not if it isn't supported by fact.

"The Jets may need to carry more corner depth" (in his argument an 8th corner) rather than the 4th best d-lineman on the team.

That's a flimsy argument at best.  At worst it makes him look like he has only been watching football for a week. 

It's asinine 57 and I'm surprised even you would defend him.  I don't support censorship, but I also don't support ignorance and stupidity.

Bent
Bent moderator

@Brendan @a57se It is a very good article.  I hope nobody skips over that one because it's B/R.

idothis2
idothis2

@Bent @idothis2 i dont think it would be difficult more so than time consuming. Revis is the platinum standard. if a wr is doubled it creates 1 on 1 opportunities for a teammate to succeed thus the player being doubled had a + effect. it seems kinda incomplete to not measure double teams.

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se No? 


It means that as a whole, we Americans are idiots fairly often. 

tsjc68
tsjc68

@Bent @Brendan As a Jamaican-American, I actually have a soft spot for the Three Lions this year.  Your side has a few Brits of Jamaican heritage (Daniel Sturridge, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Raheem Sterling).


Grantland did a Sturridge writeup and the key takeaway was that this year's English side is a bit more daring and dynamic than previous sides (thanks to the emergence of players like Sturridge), and that you might surprise.  DO NOT ABANDON HOPE!!!

Brendan
Brendan

@Bent Iran? Sure. US? Definitely. But what has Argentina done to draw so much ire? They have Messi! 


Re: your friend - as an extra? Did he get to kill someone!? The last episode was great. 

Brendan
Brendan

@Bent Admittedly, I did the first time I saw the link, but when someone said it was actually worthwhile I circled back. It was a surprisingly in-depth look at Geno's season. 

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se C'mon man, that isn't what Harold said. 


He said he takes those two sets of games as separate entities, and that we should weigh Geno's play on those 11.5 games more than we do the 4.5 games without Kerley. He didn't say Geno never played poorly with Kerley. 


"Very good by rookie standards" should explain that clearly enough. 

Bent
Bent moderator

@a57se @tsjc68 @Pete 57 It could be, but I doubt it.  To be in the top 50, you're basically top five at your position.  I couldn't see either of those two players getting more votes than some of the other receivers and backs that have already been placed outside the top 50 (Welker, Jackson, Jeffery / Murray, Bush, Lacy).

Bent
Bent moderator

@a57se @Bent 


When you were joking about this before and you felt I got touchy for some reason, I wasn't that bothered.  Now I'm joking about it and you're getting touchy or maybe you're not getting touchy about it.  Either way, look, it doesn't matter.  You hate soccer and like you say above, we're just busting chops.  


I thought I'd throw you a bone with my GoT comments I thought would interest you.

Bent
Bent moderator

@tsjc68 @Bent @Brendan Knowing England, we'll overuse our older players and underuse the youngsters, who do have some promise.  Or when we do use them it'll be out of position because we'll want the older guys occupying their own position.

Brendan
Brendan

@tsjc68 It's just too bad they're stuck with Uruguay and Italy, makes for getting out of the group stage a herculean task. 

Bent
Bent moderator

@Brendan @Bent


I wouldn't call him a friend, but he's a friend of a friend certainly and I've met him a couple of times.


I played basketball against him twice - he is 7'8" - so, while I didn't recognize him in the show, I caught his name in the end credits and it's pretty obvious which role he was playing and yes, he did chalk up a few kills.


Name is Neil Fingleton - used to warm the bench for UNC.  I might have mentioned him before.

jdb4
jdb4

@a57se @jdb4 

I wasn't saying you agreed with him.  I'm just surprised you are defending his right to be an "ignorant fool."

Bent
Bent moderator

@Brendan @Bent Definitely.  Kudos to the author, particularly for collecting his own data.


The one comment I have is that quick throw to Holmes in the Miami game which he uses to illustrate (quite correctly) how being in the shotgun can mask inadequate footwork was a throw he was messing up almost every time earlier in the year by making it a beat too late so the DB could jump on the route.  In fact, in that example it was still arguably a half-beat too late...maybe as a result of the poor footwork highlighted.


The rest of it speaks for itself.  How is he so bad on checkdowns?

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se I wasn't speaking strictly about soccer. 


Regarding soccer, if you take the time you can easily pick up enough to intelligently follow it and enjoy it. 


It's always amusing to me when someone who likes baseball goes on about how "boring" soccer is, btw. Baseball is the slowest moving sport this side of golf, but it's MURICAN!!! so it must be better!


Brendan
Brendan

@Bent I was kinda hoping Woody would pull a Tonya Harding on Ronaldo to give us a fighting chance. Unless they get a miracle-draw with one of Germany/Portugal, they're screwed. 

tsjc68
tsjc68

@Bent @tsjc68 @Brendan Man, English soccer fans make Mets fans look optimistic in comparison.


"Sure, we've got talent but we'll find a way to bollocks this up anyway."


SO DOUR!  SO FATALISTIC!

Bent
Bent moderator

@Brendan @tsjc68 It's funny, because there's a commercial out there where Joe Hart (our goalie) talks about being focused because "we all know what it's probably going to come down to" - an obvious reference to the fact we nearly always get knocked out in a penalty shoot-out.  


Someone should tell him there's no penalty shoot outs until the knockout phases.

Brendan
Brendan

@Bent Ha, I know that name (UNC fan). I'm guessing he was playing the Mag the Mighty role in the tunnel, pretty sweet. I saw a behind-the-scenes thing that showed him in costume sitting with one of the producers, it's pretty crazy that those were suits and not completely CGI'd. 


And the Giant with the bow....good god that was one of the best throw-ins of the entire series. 


"Oh? What's that? You wittle bow doesn't make it halfway up the Wall? Chill, I got this" *nocks spear into 10 ft. bow*

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se This is akin to an admission of guilt, you realize that right? It's what children do when they have nothing of substance to come back with. 

Bent
Bent moderator

@a57se @Bent Maybe one of those will be 50-41 and Wilkerson will be even higher than that!


(doubt it)

tsjc68
tsjc68

@Brendan @Bent Woody is a businessman.  He's probably rooting for Team USA to lose in horrendous fashion so that Soccer remains an afterthought here in America and doesn't draw any entertainment dollars away from FOOTBAWW.

Bent
Bent moderator

@a57se @Bent @Brendan I nearly tried to run through his legs at one point!


Oh, and I outrebounded him!

jdb4
jdb4

@a57se @jdb4 

Nor do I, but I also recognize the destructiveness of ignorant opinions that are allowed to spread.

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se Yes, which is why I defended the PFF post that everyone else said was unfair to the team. 


Good narrative you got going there. 

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se "The countrymen I live with" 


Seriously? One of my biggest issues with this country is people's lack of desire to become intelligent beings. They're content letting opinions be dictated to them rather than research something themselves. 


This country is laughably behind the curve in terms of academics (especially in math and science) and it's embarrassing for a "world leader." 


You may be content with mediocrity, but I surely am not. 


And a blanket statement about "who we elect" makes you as bad as the idiots (which I'm not calling you, so don't flip out). 

Bent
Bent moderator

@a57se If it helps build some kind of consensus, British people are frickin' morons.  I still love about 1000 of them though.

Brendan
Brendan

@tsjc68 I doubt NFL owners lose much sleep over soccer, there is still a overwhelming demographic of "her derrr soccer is for ______!" And those types loooove them some FOOTBAW!!



Brendan
Brendan

@a57se Yes it did, it pinpointed you misrepresenting another person's comment to bash them. Also known as the strawman special, your favorite. 

Bent
Bent moderator

@a57se @Bent Correct.


I was actually thinking about Vick because he's clearly held in high regard by some of the younger guys, but I don't think that would get him into the top 50 somehow!

Bytor
Bytor

@Brendan @a57se  "You may be content with mediocrity, but I surely am not."


You'd be surprised how many parents accept mediocrity and don't set high academic expectations for their kids. They foolishly set high "lacrosse scholarships" expectations that will never happen.

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se Since I mentioned the article and discussed it with Bent, my apologies for thinking this was partially directed at me (which it was, stop playing this silly game of yours). 


And that goes for Bent, as well. So unless you were talking about imaginary people, your snide comment carries no weight. 

Brendan
Brendan

@Bytor Oh, I know. My dad used to administer spelling tests at home because he thought my teachers weren't doing enough. At the time, seething, unparalleled anger towards him. Today? I make sure to mention it and thank him for it at least a few times a year. 

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se So he stunk every game? Every play? Start to finish? Never improved, never played well, never did good things for his team? 


Our cherry picking of games? How about you? You act like his November stretch was the norm. You minimize it down to completion %. You discredit (or outright dismiss) the idea that he got better in the final four games. You laugh at any argument that shows support, you dismiss any objective article that states something you didn't come up with on your own. 


You want to talk about a joke, start there. 


If you bothered to read the article, you'd possibly have something more intelligent to argue than a blanket that statement that "all the stats for the season" don't back up. At all. 

Bytor
Bytor

@Brendan @Bytor I got a chuckle out of this. Your dad did a great service to you. He set up solid expectations as a value, not a one time thing. Nice to see you give him props.

Bytor
Bytor

@a57se @Bytor @Brendan Because I see it every day. People are constantly surprised that my wife and I not only check to see if our kids did their homework, we go over it with them. If they get stuff wrong we make them fix it. That takes a lot of time, energy and patience.

If parents took half the time they spend with their kid on some sport they will never play professionally, maybe just maybe they'd be "smart". 

My kids are super athletic. I have no idea where they got it from. But if you asked them what was the most important thing in world for them to succeed they'd all answer school.

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se It's great watching you shove words in people's mouths to criticize them. 


No one is saying you have to be wildly successful, no one is saying you can't be dumb. But the acceptance of mediocrity and the enabling of lazy behavior are both plagues on our present day society. American children test well behind other first world countries, on-average. 


But Mexico just beat out the US for fattest country in the world, so I guess progress means I should just shut up about it? 

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se Because the last time we discussed soccer you went on an unsolicited rant about how it sucks and we should all not be allowed to discuss it on here. I thought that'd be obvious. 

Brendan
Brendan

@Bytor Well, because of his home tests I won a geography bee and made the finals in a spelling bee a few times. That was before I grew sideburns and started bucking my intelligence as some uncool burden. 


Younger-me is a spectacular idiot, in hindsight. 

Brendan
Brendan

@Bytor Sounds like my childhood. Keep it up, man, we need more parents like you. 

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se If you want to go with hindsight, feel free to remind everyone you actually stayed on that Sanchez train long after I did, about a year after, in fact (I stopped the honeymoon in 2011, you were still slamming your fist about 26 TD's). 


You find any positive you can out of crap performances and use that to bolster the idea that Geno will be good.


This isn't true, you just choose to ignore the balance in my comments to bash me as a blindly faithful dolt. I see plenty wrong with the Jets, I choose not to spend every second I'm on here flooding the threads with my whiney complaints, though. 


I took those rose colored glasses off finally and won't put them back on. 


"Rose colored" prediction of 9 wins last year. What a homer I am. 


Geno has to prove it on the field over the course of a season and until he does, I refuse to believe he is the answer simply because he has done NOTHING in this league except rank at the bottom. 


And here you prove your unrelenting bias against Geno. He played very well the last month, he had one of the highest QB ratings, and he went 3-1 with minimal turnovers. Anyone worth a salt acknowledges he took steps forward, and their narrative is "can he continue to take those necessary steps? Or was the end of last year more flukey than real and Geno will never become the consistent player he has potential to be?" It's not "Geno is the answer!" 


You continuously take reasonable stances people have that are optimistic and trash them as being irrational. Being a Jets fan and being hopeful Jets players succeed and finding reasons why that is possible isn't "rose colored" anything, that's what being a fan is all about, at least to most people. To you, it's about finding every reason something won't work, which is fine, but don't put words in people's mouths to get your nasty point across. Be the negative guy that you are, that's fine, but be fair to everyone else here, please. 

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se ?


Which part did I purposefully twist? The part where you said people are being criticized for not being wildly successful? 


(I patiently await your comment about how I'm baiting you or whatever)

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se Careful, you don't want to fall over when you're backpedaling that fast. 


Pretending a jerk comment was in jest after the fact doesn't change the tone, and multiple people were peeved at how you injected yourself into that discussion just to tell everyone how dumb they were for discussing it. 

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se Leaving for a 4 hour presentation for work, so I'll hit this quick. 


2011 Sanchez was not a rookie, he should look better. 


QB rating is not indicative of "overall offensive performance." That's a new one, truly. In any regard, it still counts for showing Geno was one of the most efficient players at his position at the end of the season. 


It was one of the highest in the league in the final month of the year, dude. Tell me that it "wasn't that good" and that just means there were 25 or so guys with worse ones. His ranking speaks for itself. 


So, I dropped Sanchez in 2011, you did it in 2013, somehow we're equal? Okay than. I didn't "turn" on him, I just grew tired of his mistakes, and that happened after 2011. I thought 2012 was his "last chance" so I defended his right for that (I also didn't like the other options the team could go with), that's a far cry from being on Team Sanchez. 


And I highly, highly doubt you have my debates with Pete B. memorized, please don't act like you do. 

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se Funny, whenever I've seen you use the goal thing, it's been to mock soccer. But that's how you "joke," so I guess there's not much to say about that. 


Oh, and here's your entire original comment: 


"More Soccer?

GOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAALLLLLLLLL!

BARF! "


Keep in mind this was a thread about a soccer player that is one of the five most famous athletes in the world and you took the time to trash soccer. In the thread about soccer. 


Your other comments: 


"Why is there a thread about a stupid soccer player on a Blog about the NY Jets? " (he was in a picture with Woody Johnson after practicing at the team's facility)


Your  brilliant logic: 


"At least Hockey is a North American sport and we are talking about a NY team. Not an international sport and talking about a player from Portugal.

Can you see the difference there?" - fun fact, the NHL is 25% European/Asian


"Let's get some Tiddlywink pieces and some Cribbage and Rugby stories as well......

How about Chess? We could have a weekly dissertation on the Sicilian Defense!

Maybe throw in a little Polo for the Cardigan crowd!"



Please, tell me more about how touchy someone was after you made multiple dckish remarks towards them and others who were doing nothing except partaking in a fun discussion about soccer a week before the World Cup.