Here is your winner of TheJetsBlog free agency prediction contest…

Congratulations to long-time TJB commenter SackDance99 who aced the official TJB Free Agency Prediction Contest by nailing all three of the signings the Jets made in the month of March.

We didn’t need the tie-breaker in the end, but it’s interesting to note that almost everyone predicted Eric Decker would get a bigger contract than he eventually got from the Jets – much higher in many cases. However, it was total contract value that determined the tie-break winner and jimjets was closest with $36m (even though he was expecting a four-year deal rather than a five-year deal).

Please congratulate Sack, gripe about the contest format or complain how John Idzik’s inactivity ruined everyone’s fun in the comments…




68 comments
twin
twin

Is anybody excited about the potential of really signing CJ2K?

jimjets
jimjets

congrats SD, glad to come in second!   Wish I lost, and he grabbed a few more players, but....I'm with Idzik and can be patient. I just hope for all of our sakes this cat knows what he's doing

williamg1
williamg1

Three weeks ago, people around here had long lists of top free agents they wanted/expected to sign. 


Now, the same people are telling us how smart is was for Idzik to avoid signing the people they had wanted/expected him to sign. Apparently its a brilliant strategy. But, if Idzik had done a bunch of signings/spending (as they had wanted/expected) they would have said that strategy was also brilliant. 

SackDance99
SackDance99

Thanks, all.  In case any of you were wondering, I haven't been disappointed by the Jets' careful additions in free agency.  When the Jets have a true franchise QB and you can tell that one or two key signings will put the offense over the top, then you spend the money.  Same is true with the defense, the Jets aren't 1 or 2 players away from an '85-'86 Bears-level defense.  Plus, the Jets have 12 draft picks coming in and hopefully 1 or 2 of those rookies will fill clear needs.  So, until we can see just 1 or 2 flaws, as opposed to a dozen or so, I think it's best for building a winning franchise to rely more on the draft than free agency.


Also, while I know Vick has many detractors and I hope Geno beats him out, Vick is an exciting player.  His career was sort of at a crossroads before he was jailed.  He had to make the transition from runner to passer and those, basically, 3 years he didn't play prevented him from making that transition.  In 2010, with Marty M., you saw what Vick could do as a complete QB.  Vick was on track to be one of the most exciting and productive QBs in NFL history.  I find his signing very intriguing because he only has 109 starts, Drew Brees (drafted like Vick in 2001) has 185.  There could be a lot of football left for Vick; he just has to stay healthy.  The Jets have 2 very worthy candidates to be the franchise QB for the next 5-7 years.


But, the beauty of the Idzik process is that if neither work out, there will be plenty of cap space to deal or sign a better candidate.  And, if we ever want to see a Lombardi Trophy in Florham Park, QB has to be Idzik's focus.

Disgruntled Jets Fan
Disgruntled Jets Fan

So, anyone complaining about idzik should actually be complaining about SD!

Monty
Monty

Congratulations!

And those predictions were made before ware peppers and revis and desean were made available .signing one of the could have thrown this off.

WW85
WW85

Congrats Sack99!  Santonio Holmes is signing the Sanchez football as well.

levi
levi

Congrats SD99  You win an autographed Mark Sanchez football.

Vincent Winner
Vincent Winner

@twin  That depends on whether Goodson is healthy and a free man.  If Goodson isn't available, I'd like to have someone like CJ2K.

Bent
Bent moderator

@williamg1  


Generalize much?


"Measured and value driven or desperate and aggressive?


Give me the former every single time." - Me, March 12th, 2014.


WW85
WW85

@SackDance99  We could have been the #1 D in the AFC with a top corner from FA along with draft picks. An improved offense & we could have made a deep run in the playoffs.

Monty
Monty

@SackDance99  the jets defense if fortified with a vontae davis and byrd could have been top D this year easy. With the top D you never know.

You think the Giants were superbowl favorites thier two championships they were wild cards 

How about the Ravens thier two championships..were they the preseason favorites to win...NO they got in the playoffs and got hot and made it happen.. The 200 team was more dominant but I digress. 

How about the Steelers the 2 superbowls they got to .. they weren't the favorites in the preseason either..

These teams all had defenses ,.With a dominant defense you can go for it every year, .

With solidifying the defense and upgrading the offense we could have gotten into the playoffs this year..You give me Vontae Davis Decker Jones MJD AND the draftpicks we are in the playoffs. Those additions were easily affordable. once you're in the playoffs A Defense can take you to the superbowl

There was no reason not to go for the playoffs except to use that as an excuse for his constant failure. You bloggers may not care but us season ticket holders care..we invest in this team.  Woody isnt walking the parking lot this year,, were going to be in last place and its going to get ugly. 

They were 1 win out of the playoffs people..Why are Jet fans so comfortable with losing. Stop being comfortable with losing. 

Woody is not the problem.. he tries his best, I can see how idzik might have convinced him he was the guy for the job. 

bobbyj
bobbyj

Only problem w/your thinking is that I believe NE has more picks in the top 150 then we do. Woody is the problem. Your stating that Idzik is the decision maker, but he has stated that " picking players ect " is done by committee. How can that work? The owner has stated it's win now ( no definition of what that means 9-6 , wild card, challange for the AFC east crown ? ) the GM is building a foundation for the future ( 2-3 year plan) & Rex the HC is on a one year contract. How do you think there personell by commitee is gonna work? Once again, this is the reason that all the legit GM candidates ran from Woody

SackDance99
SackDance99

@Disgruntled Jets Fan I would love Idzik's job and my first move would be to hire Bent as director of pro player personnel.  I'm sure Woody knows some politicians that could get a H1-B visa in a hurry!

SackDance99
SackDance99

@WW85 Ha, if you've followed my comments over the years, add in Kellen Clemens!

Bent
Bent moderator


@levi ....which ironically you'll never receive because it will end up in the hands of someone other than the intended recipient.

Monty
Monty

@Bent @williamg1  Value is determined by the market.... he badly miscalculated player value...You can say you'll only pay 10 dollars for gas... but if everyone is paying 12  you're not going anywhere. And because he said he was only going to pay 10 the jets don't have the fuel to go anywhere..

williamg1
williamg1

@Bent @williamg1  You can call it generalizing if you wish. But one only has to look at the defender's of Idzik's strategy's own predictions to see how off they were. 

SackDance99
SackDance99

@WW85 @SackDance99The defense is in transition.  It's becoming a front 7 team, rather than reliant on the LBs and DBs.  IMO, the defense needs a pass rushing demon to be complete, not a CB.  Top pass rushers, if they become available, command top dollar, like CBs.  So, Idzik made the right move.

See what the draft brings and keep the $$$ available to get the "bitch kitty" that Rex has always wanted.  The Seahawks' starting CBs were drafted in the 5th round and this is supposed to be a deep draft for CBs.  So, why sign an expensive CB, who could hamstring your efforts to get a bitch kitty, when you have an opportunity to draft one and save $30 million?


The offense improves with competence at the QB position and that's a huge question mark.  So, again, why not keep some $$$ in reserve because franchise QBs do become available, especially when teams get into rebuilding mode.

SackDance99
SackDance99

@Monty The Jets defense isn't just a CB and safety away from being elite and there simply isn't a single offensive player that will make the Jets' offense competent.  Plus, I could poke holes in your logic about the Giants, Ravens and Steelers all day long.  Simply put, those teams had more talent on both sides of the ball than the Jets do now.  This is a young Jets team with several players who have high ceilings, but are not at peak production, yet.


I'll simplify it.  The Jets don't have Big Ben, Eli or even Joe Flacco (who I think is vastly underrated).  The Jets' overall team isn't good enough for a savvy vet, like Trent Dilfer or Brad Johnson, to make a difference.  This year may answer lots of questions and I find your conclusion that the Jets will be in last place ludicrous.  It could happen, but it would mean a boatload of injuries or a meteor hits Florham Park.

harold
harold

@Monty

The Giants had a good defense one year and an average on the other year they won the Super Bowl..

Never a great defense..just FYI

The Steelers and Ravens (Ravens Super Bowl they were just getting established) were both consistent playoffs teams in 2000's.

__fense
__fense

@bobbyj  Well, for one thing, Idzik has also used the phrase 'win now', so maybe you're putting too much stock into this divide you're assuming exists. Also, whenever they've talked about how decisions are made, they all always mention the GM, the scouts, Rex, and the rest of the coaches. I don't think I've ever heard a single story of Woody being involved in those discussions. He certainly wasn't in Collision Low Crossers (which happened under Tanny, but they still got input from all the football people before making decisions, because that's how most teams do it). I'm not sure why you're so convinced that Woody is evil, but if all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

SackDance99
SackDance99

@bobbyj There is no proof that Woody is a meddlesome owner in the Dan Snyder/Jerry Jones mold.  What owner doesn't want to win now?  The team was 8-8, Miami and Buffalo have more overall flaws than the Jets do and the Pats are entirely reliant on an aging QB.  This division is for the taking.  The Jets defense is near elite (and the draft should help) and the offense has added the most professional offensive staff since Charlie Weis was waddling around.  I'm confident that if you keep giving Marty M. talented players to build his system, the Jets will get a QB to run the offense productively.  He and Lee are the right men to get the offense fixed for the long term.


Plus, who cares that the Pats have more picks in the top 150?  It's an absolute myth that the Pats have any great draft prowess.  And, their greatest draft pick ever was the 199th.  The Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, 49ers and Seahawks have all been much better in the draft.

SackDance99
SackDance99

@Monty @SackDance99@Bent@williamg1I said "free agency needs" and I don't think every personnel need has to be filled in free agency.  For instance, it looks like the Jets will get 2 WRs in free agency, will get another RB (and I disagree on what type of RB), will likely get a vet OG (an upgrade is a value judgment, I'm sure the Bucs thought they were massively upgrading OG when they signed Carl Nicks, problem is he's barely played a down).


I've said over and over that I don't think safety is a need, pass rushing LB is best to get in the draft (and Barnes is a good stopgap), as is TE and, as I said above, Breno was the logical choice to replace Howard and the Jets wrapped that up quickly.


When late July rolls around, let's see what the camp roster is and I guarantee that all of the positions you have identified will have plenty of candidates.  Whether they'll be successful is a crap shoot, but so is free agency.

Monty
Monty

@SackDance99 @Monty @Bent @williamg1  they needed 2 wide recievers,safety, upgrade at corner, 3rd down running back who can pass protect, tight end that can block and has hands . Pass rushing LB, and an upgrade at guard...and a RT if we lost hunter. 


Injury prone

colon

barnes 

ivory


SackDance99
SackDance99

@Monty @Bent@williamg1IMO, the Jets had 3 pressing free agency needs: WR, QB and CB.  The Jets signed the top WR and QB on the market.  They will sign a CB, but have decided to go cheaper at that position.  With 12 draft picks coming in, I expected that the Jets would rely on the draft to fill either the WR or CB need.  And, I always thought that they'd get a TE in the draft

Monty
Monty

@Bent @williamg1  


Anyone who loves what idzik is doing want a lower level psl?..section 123 great seats.. If you belive idzik is doing a good job.. now is youre chance to get in while the seats are cheaper.. Hes going to bring us a ton of superbowls and the PSLs are going to skyrocket..put your money where your keyboards are..no 

I thought not.. but were not good fans because we speak up. 

SackDance99
SackDance99

@williamg1 @SackDance99@BentMost folks on here are more than willing to criticize the FO.  I just think its premature until we see whose on the opening day roster.  The UFA period is closing, but the Jets still aren't done (I expect 2 or 3 more signings).  Then, there's 12 draft picks, UDFAs and vets cut in camp.  Then, we need to see how the Jets play in real games.  Then, if there's a problem that could've been fixed in free agency, I'll complain as loudly as anyone else.  But, they'll be dozens of player personnel moves by then.  Right now, CB is a concern.  Whether it will be a concern come September is a way different story.

williamg1
williamg1

@SackDance99 @Bent @williamg1  That comment wasn't necessarily directed at you. It was directed at the ones that shout down anyone who dares disagree with the FO. 

SackDance99
SackDance99

@Bent @williamg1Yeah, for instance, I expected the Jets would pick up a QB and WR and most of my picks were QBs and WRs.  I also thought the Jets would pick up a CB (and I still think they will) but it won't be a top guy.  Breno was, IMO, the only logical choice to replace Howard if the Jets didn't intend on keeping him (and, fwiw, I thought his contract with the Raiders was insane).

Bent
Bent moderator

@williamg1 @Bent  You have to name 10 players, that's the rules of the contest.  So some people would have been hedging their bets to try and achieve the highest possible score.


Like, if you think they'll get Decker, Sanders or Hawkins, you'd put all three in your entry.  Doesn't mean you think they're going to sign all three.

SackDance99
SackDance99

@bradysucks Allen wasn't a good scheme fit and is old.  The Jets need their LBs to get younger.  Plus, while I disagree with your Gastineau comparison, Gastineau was out of the NFL by 32, which is what Allen will be in a week.


MJD was a no-brainer, a no-brainer in not wasting money on him because he's not what the Jets need at RB.  James Jones isn't any better than the top 10 WR prospects in this draft, so why waste the $$$ on him?  Another no-brainer.


As the Donald often says: "Sometimes your best investments are the ones you don't make."

bradysucks
bradysucks

Idzik should have signed Jared Allen. Huge mistake passing on an elite pass rusher the Jets could easily afford.

Idzik is a cheap guy. He's a Walmart shopper. He is better than Tannenbaum but I'd prefer a GM with a mentality somewhere in the middle. Tannenbaum was reckless and Idzik is cheap and is too busy picking up pennies to see the dollar staring him in the face.

This was a great year to add Allen....who is the closest thing there is to a modern day Gastineau

Allen & MJD were no brainers...same with James Jones

j3tsfan29
j3tsfan29

@ sacksance99,Wait a minute your contradicting yourself, you just said the defense is near elite, but in your original post you said the defense isn't one or two players away from being over the top. I disagree and believe that a cb and Demarcus ware/Jared Allen, would put this defense over the too and into elite status. Congrats on your victory. That said the defense is worse then it was and I can't believe some team is going to cut the next starting cb for our jets. Anyways here's to hoping idzik pulls it off!

Bent
Bent moderator

@bobbyj  


Well, that's not strictly true, is it?


You've called yourself Bob Jensen, RAJ and several other names over the years.


And the "no mention of personnel" thing is not true either, as pointed out to you in a comment by Brendan 7 days ago:


"With Seattle, Idzik oversees player negotiations, the team’s compliance with the NFL salary cap, player personnel transactions, all football operations budgets, staff and team contracts, team travel and most aspects of the day-to-day football operations while also remaining active in player evaluations."


"He spent 11 years with the Buccaneers, first as a Pro Personnel Assistant and then was elevated to Director of Football Administration in 1996 and Assistant General Manager in 2001."


"Prior to joining the Seahawks, Idzik spent three seasons as Senior Director of Football Operations for the Arizona Cardinals, helping to build an eventual NFC champion."


http://www.seahawks.com/team/staff/John-Idzik/f304b1c8-4fdb-49a7-b810-c4b074b07c45

bobbyj
bobbyj

What I read when he was announced as GM was that he handled all contracts, was responsible for player travel, lodging meals that's what it read. Idzik himself stated that he " sat in " on personell meetings. Idzik upon being hired as GM, I believe after the draft hired the former GM of the Arixona Cardinals, that's who is running the draft & scouting. Idzik had some scouting background w/Tampa, but what I read on the Seatlle we page w/his pic on it, made no mention of personell/ scouting/ player devolopment. I don't change my name, I don't post bull s.... & I am consistent w/what I say. You gonna tell me Caldwell. & others didn't reject Woody

SackDance99
SackDance99

@__fense @SackDance99@Bent@bobbyjPlus, I'm sure Woody feels responsible for the offensive mess.  Tannenbaum picked Rex's OCs, not Rex.  Rex's first independent choice was Marty M.  Rex places a lot of responsibility and autonomy on his OCs and he's still working on how to manage them (and, he likely never felt entirely comfortable ordering around Tanny's boys).  Rex is a work in progress and he acknowledged that he screwed up last year by reining in Marty M and Geno after the Saints game.


But, Rex is a defensive genius and a great motivator.  If he had been fired, he would've had 2-3 job offers to choose from.  Firing Rex would've been a mistake and Woody knows it and let's hope Idzik knows it now, too.  That Rex got an 8-8 record out of last year's team (and kept it in contention for more than half the season) was a minor miracle.  Idzik saw a great coaching performance and investing in Rex is better than starting over.

__fense
__fense

@SackDance99 @Bent @bobbyj  Let's just hope it goes better than the last time we ended a Patriot QB's Career. 


Also, I think people spend a lot of time trying to force the Rex Vs Idzik thing, but it's really simpler. Woody Johnson has a vision for the future. He doesn't know exactly how to achieve it, but he knows it involves a lot of silver trophies, and he knows it involves Rex Ryan, who most Jets fans can agree is a guy that can go the distance. So when it's time to pick a new GM, the GM should share his vision. His only things he wants from a potential GM is a guy that has a plan to get a bunch of superbowl wins (as opposed to just one and then 5 years of being screwed with the cap), and a guy that wants Rex Ryan to be his coach. He wasn't looking to GMs and then forcing Rex on them, he was looking for GMs that wanted Rex in the first place. And it certainly seems like Idzik gets a big check mark in both categories. People always talk about who holds sway like it's a power struggle, but really, it's a team.

SackDance99
SackDance99

@Bent @bobbyjAlso, most GMs want their hand-picked HCs, but Woody wanted to keep Rex.  Everyone thinks this is so radical, but in every NFL front office, either the GM holds sway or the HC.  Does it really matter who the GM is in Seattle, New England or KC?  Does it matter who the HC is in Green Bay, Denver, Pittsburgh or Baltimore?  Idzik knew that Rex was going to be the HC and embraced it.


And, maybe you think players don't get old, decline, get injured or just lose their edge, but it happens and it will happen to Brady.  The Jets defense is now geared towards taking the QB out.  27 year old Tom Brady, before his marriage to his super-model, mega-rich wife, loved the challenge of beating the Jets.  I'm not sure 37 year old Tom Brady relishes it as much when he knows that Boss Hogg, Mo and QC want to do the nene over his prone and lifeless body.  He sure didn't seem that enthusiastic facing Tuck, Umenyiora and JPP and he rarely saw those guys.  The Brady era will end and, as a Jets fan, I hope the Jets end it.

Bent
Bent moderator

@bobbyj  "Read Idziks bio sheet from Seattle, his job description didn't contain ONE WORD about personell or player devolpment."


You keep saying that, but it isn't true.

bobbyj
bobbyj

Dude unless Brady goes down, it's NE division for the taking, they've only won it 11 times since Bellicheck went there. David Caldwell flat out rejected Woody, it's on his Bio sheet for the Jacksonville Jaguars... Every news outlet, not just our gang of idiots, NFL network, Jay Glazer, Charlie Caasserly all said multi GM candidates rejected Woody. Read Idziks bio sheet from Seattle, his job description didn't contain ONE WORD about personell or player devolpment. I'm sure they are all wrong....How many times have you heard am owner comment on a player, under contract on another team? So we got a GM on a 2-3 year build, HC on a one year deal ( all facts. ) & a owner who claims were winning now

SackDance99
SackDance99

@Bent @SackDance99@Disgruntled Jets FanNah, you actually have to interview players, interact with the scouts and report to the coaches and owner.  If you like, we can set up your office in the basement at Florham Park and bring your Mom over to serve you tea and biscuits in the afternoon.