Nick Folk, Ryan Quigley

Jets and Folk looking to strike a deal, but for how much?

Jets kicker Nick Folk is scheduled to become a free agent and has expressed his desire to come back to New York.  Folk told Metro NY that the Jets would like him to return as well.

“I’d love to stay in New York,” Folk, who is currently in Dallas training, told Metro New York. “They’re still finalizing the coaching staff from what I heard.”

He had an end-of-the-season meeting with general manager John Idzik and head coach Rex Ryan in late December, where he sensed the Jets wanted him back.

“That’s what I got from it. It was a good meeting, I conveyed that I’d like to be back,” Folk said. “[We will] see what happens over the next couple months.”

Brian Bassett, TheJetsBlog.com

The question, of course, is at what cost?

It is proving to be an interesting climate for the Jets if they do want to re-sign Nick Folk.  Chicago’s Robbie Gould got a large four year contract from the Bears last month. Meanwhile Jerry World is making a bid at becoming the NFL’s new Al Davis with his blockbuster deal the Cowboys just gave Dan Bailey.

There’s plenty of time left for the Jets to start offering contracts to their pending free agents, but it seems like the Jets might wind up paying more for for Folk the way the market is headed. The Gould deal could have been played off more as an outlier by the Jets front office, but with the news of the deal that Jerry just struck with his kicker. Right or wrong, it is going to be increasingly hard to justify a low-level deal at the bargaining table.

Is the market for extremely accurate kickers heating up for a historically undervalued position?




81 comments
kniff
kniff

I think the smart route is to reward performance and loyalty... Nick Folk has given us both. If we give him some kind of raise it won't break the cap, and we can rationalize right along with him, that we've got to save some $ for our stud vets and new talent cause our stock is going straight up!!


Lets not forget we are the Jets, and all the extremely close games we've had (or will have)  that  come down to a damned field goal!!!


Give Folk a token raise to make him happy and be done with it, we have more pressing issues to deal with.

jvsvn
jvsvn

I'm reluctant to overpay for a kicker. Look at the guys the Jets cut the last couple of years. Nick Novak and Dan Carpenter had almost identical statistics to Folk this year. I like Folk, think he's a good kicker, knows the details of our stadium, etc. I'd be happy to see him return but at the right price. However, given our cap situation, it probably wouldn't hurt to pay a little extra this year and/or add a year or to to the contract so long as the guaranteed money is low. Kickers are hot and cold. You never know when you'll have to make a change.

Disgruntled Jets Fan
Disgruntled Jets Fan

Finally gave in and went the false twitter router so that I could have my handle and avatar back.

joemustgo
joemustgo

Agree. I'd like the Jets to bring him back so there's one less thing to fix, but he had a career year last season and I suspect he's just as likely to revert to his career 80%, which is below league average.

SackDance99
SackDance99

Paying a kicker anything more than the veteran minimum wastes precious cap space.  That being said, the Jets should try to ink Folk to a decent contract, but Gould or Bailey numbers are insane.  And, whatever the contract is like, make sure that the cap hit for cutting him is relatively minor.

djf1
djf1

Let's just go for every 4th down and 2 point conversion, and not have a kicker. 


J/k.  Sort of.

a57se
a57se

Ask Nick Saban what the value of a good place kicker is.....:)

harold
harold

With this many picks you pick the best kicking prospect in the 6th or 7th round and move on.  Young kickers have become better and better no need to overpay for a good not great kicker.

Bent
Bent moderator

@jake100 I'm sure you would love that.

SackDance99
SackDance99

@jake100If the Jets ink Folk to an overly rich contract and he fails in game-winning situations, the criticism will be just as loud.  A replacement kicker could be better, worse or the same and only 1 of those options hurts the Jets.  That's why overpaying for a kicker doesn't make any logical sense.  Sign him to a sensible contract, not a Janikowski/Gould/Bailey insane contract.

__fense
__fense

@jake100 The Seahawks and Broncos both play outdoors in cities that are colder than NY. I really don't understand why people are try to force this.

Pat d
Pat d

You mean sorry Peyton. With the Seahawks physical secondary and strong front 7 the Broncos could get blown out. Unless the officials rob the Seahawks like the last time they were in the Super Bowl I predict a big win for the Seahawks,

harold
harold

@jake100


See my posts below, it is not a sound investment.

a57se
a57se

@harold 

Did you watch the Texans placekicker last season?

No thanks. 

You can say all you want right now but if/when that rookie Kicker is missing FG's and costing us games and we end up 8-8, you'll be the first one complaining about why we let Folk go.

Brendan
Brendan

@harold You can't discard the K spot like that. Any old 6th/7th round kicker will have a tough time kicking for the Jets. Let's not pretend the Jets don't play in one of the windiest stadiums in the league, something Folk seems to have conquered now (his kicks do an extra bend that no one else seems to do consistently at NMS, at least). 


If they can get him close to $2 million per? Do it, don't worry about drafting a K, and focus on actual holes to fill. 

a57se
a57se

@Bent

Way to completely ignore his point!

SackDance99
SackDance99

@a57se@joemustgoThe league avg. was 86.5% this season.  Folk has only been above 90% twice in his career.  I'm all for keeping Folk, but there is a lot of truth in what joemustgo is saying.

djf1
djf1

@a57se @harold 8-8 with a horrible K?  Is this a bit of optimism creeping in?

harold
harold

@Brendan@harold


2 million or under is fine.  Anything more is foolish  Arguably 2 of the top 8 kickers were just in their second year and couple other young kickers are pretty good as well.  The reason for my statement is I think he may get more than 2 million and if he does move on.

a57se
a57se

@Bent

Oh, so you figured you'd just insult him....gotcha!

a57se
a57se

@joemustgo

and my point is that his season really wasn't an outlier.......he was overworked the previous two seasons and put into bad positions which impacted his numbers, not his skill.

joemustgo
joemustgo

@a57se@joemustgoMy only "evidence" is that most outliers tend to revert to the mean, whether baseball BAs, FG %s, etc., and if he does, he will be average to slightly below.

a57se
a57se

@joemustgo

You may be right but there is nothing in his performance or history to suggest that...the only time he has struggled through a season was when he was hurt his final season in Dallas.

joemustgo
joemustgo

@a57se@joemustgo I just don't think he'll be as good next year, but I would be very happy to be wrong.

a57se
a57se

@joemustgo

In 2012 he had two or three FG's blocked because of penetration by the defense and he missed like a 56 yarder in difficult conditions. They all count as missed FG's and skewed his percentage.

In 2011, he missed 3 of 6 greater than 50 Yards but hit like 87% of his tries less than 50 so his numbers weren't as bad as they seemed again.

Both years the misses/block occurred near the end of the season and Bent had pointed out this pattern in his BGA's.

Last year (off season) Folk was talking with some other kickers and realized that Westhoff had him kicking a lot more than anyone else in the league, something like 110 times a week vs. 65 times a week on other teams. he brought this to the Jets attention and they changed his workload this year and produced his best season since he was a Cowboy and made All-Pro.

When you take all this into account, Folk is pretty darn good.

joemustgo
joemustgo

@a57se@BentMy claim was based on his FG%. I realize this one stat doesn't tell the whole story, but his 91.7% last year was 11 points higher than his career average. Outliers like that tend to revert to the mean. I'm not saying  I don't want the Jets to keep him, I just said I suspect he will be closer to his career average next year.

a57se
a57se

@Bent@a57se 

I figured if he was interested, he would ask why I said that this way i didn't waste my time rehashing it.

Bent
Bent moderator

@a57se @Bent Yes, I agree with you.  I just thought a post that presented your side of the argument would enhance the conversation a bit better than you flatly stating someone else is wrong, when that person may not have seen you state that in the past.

a57se
a57se

@Bent

Folk did not have a career year last season.

Those < 80% seasons were not as bad as the raw numbers indicate, a fact you know very well.

Bent
Bent moderator

@a57se @Bent 


No reason?


The guy disguised his identity multiple times, tried to get everyone to vacate the blog and join him at AFC News blog or whatever it was called, publicly criticized the blog and the standard of the comments as well as questioning my impartiality and objectivity, has deliberately made inflammatory comments in the past even when asked not to and lied about having admitted to the above in an effort to discredit me.


I think I have plenty of reason to say whatever the hell I like to him.


And yet all I did was make a light-hearted reference to his Giants fandom that he didn't respond to.  However, you did threaten on a post you made the other day to mis-represent everything I said because you somehow think that is allowed because it happens to you (even though (a) it rarely does and (b) you do it to everyone else all the time), so I'm glad to see you making good on that threat.


The blog would be a better place if you didn't constantly bring crap like this up and weren't so damn sensitive.

a57se
a57se

@Bent@a57se  

The Blog is a much better place with you doing BGA's and writing articles and commenting along with everyone else.

Well you have abrogated your duties as a moderator in lieu of your friendships.

You just insulted joey for no reason, that is not how moderators carry themselves. You should resign as a moderator

The Blog will function just fine without you moderating.



Bent
Bent moderator

@a57se @Bent I don't need your permission, even if you have appointed yourself chief moderator.

Bent
Bent moderator

@a57se @Disgruntled Jets Fan It's not making the job any easier for the moderators when you cry wolf after every single comment.


I would respectfully ask you to stop otherwise I will take action.

a57se
a57se

@Disgruntled Jets Fan

I guess I am so used to it by now that I automatically assume every comment is that. 

Plus I picked the Jets to do better than most going into 2013, 2012, 2011...etc., etc. so your comment doesn't make much sense to me.

Disgruntled Jets Fan
Disgruntled Jets Fan

@a57se @djf1 I was seriously asking you if you were being somewhat optimistic towards the next season, which seems to be football related to me.  If you're choosing to somehow interpret this as a personal attack, I can't help you.

a57se
a57se

@djf1

Why can't you just stick to football?

This is really getting annoying.

Bent
Bent moderator

@harold "2 million or under is fine."


Over how many years :o)

harold
harold

@Brendan@harold


Our last three wins we won them all by double digits when we did not turn the ball over (our only 3 double digits victories of the year).  The nail-biters were when we were turning the ball over.


I am not saying skimp on kicker.  It is one position where their truly are more capable players than position available.  So overspending on this position is not smart unless you have a top 3 to 5 guy.  Is Folk that, year in and year out?

Brendan
Brendan

@harold Kicker is one position I don't think the team should skimp on. Especially if they go with the approach they used to win some games late in the year with a controlled offense that just doesn't turn it over. 

harold
harold

@Brendan@harold


2.1 is my max. You get to an extra 300k per year and you are almost talking about a rookie base salary.  Too much for a kicker IMO, unless he is consistently in the top 3 to 5 at his position year in and year out.

Brendan
Brendan

@harold @Brendan If he starts getting offers for over $2m, I'd be fine with the team letting him go. If they sign him to something like $2.3 million? I'm not going to get worked up over $300k, that's why I said I'd be okay with $2-$3 million down the page. But hopefully it's considerably less than that.