Link: Show me some progress

Mike Tanier of USA Today writes about this year’s rookie quarterback class and draws some conclusions on EJ Manuel of the Bills, Mike Glennon of the Bucs and Geno Smith of the Jets.  Here’s what Tanier had to say about Geno Smith in his summary section:

The sink-or-swim approach [with Geno Smith] will pay greater dividends than noodling with Matt Simms: if Smith flat lines, the Jets can easily replace the second-round pick in last year’s draft. If he rebounds and plays like he did in the first six weeks, he will answer some questions about both his ability and his maturity/confidence, allowing the Jets can switch offseason priorities and start looking for receivers who sometimes get open.

Games like Sunday’s win almost represent a worst-case scenario in Smith evaluation: What happens if Smith wins a few games with hot-and-cold efforts, then squeaks into the postseason? Idzik and whoever joins him in the decision process will have tough calls to make, but it is important to remember that we can only have this conversation because Smith showed so much early-season promise. Most of Smith’s problems are correctable, and more importantly, Smith demonstrated in September that he has the capacity to correct them. You don’t toss a quarterback like him away lightly, even if he goes a month or so without a touchdown.

Brian Bassett, TheJetsBlog.com

I would agree.  If Geno can show that even with some meager protection improvement and more useful passing options in the next three games he can be a little less of a hot mess, then the Jets might not have to make much more short-term investment in the quarterback spot.

If however the SS Geno crashes on the rocks of the next three games, then the Jets are going to have to consider all their options as they enter the free agency period and the NFL Draft.  Unfortunately for Geno, the Jets will be facing two top ten pass defenses before the season ends.

According to Football Outsiders Carolina ranks sixth against the pass, an even more dismaying number when you consisder that they are only second to the Jets in terms of stopping the run.  Translation?  It’s going to come down to (or on) Geno Smith.  While the Browns are nothing special on defense, the Dolphins rank ninth against the pass.  It was an aspect which the Jets didn’t do a good enough job of working around in their game a few weeks back.  They have to put Geno in a better spot during that rematch to play spoilers to the Dolphins postseason dreams.

With plenty of cap space and a complement of draft picks coming in 2014 that could be used to turbocharge the offense, it is hard to imagine a first year GM giving up on his quarterback after just one season.  But if Geno can’t definitively state his case on why he should be the option going forward, all bets should effectively be off.

Better receivers can help Smith, but no one wants to see the Jets get led down the “Mark Sanchez needs more weapons around him path” either.  That dog won’t hunt.  Smith still has plenty of work to do on his blitz pickups, his ability to read through progressions, and read a pre-snap defense.

Getting better options for Geno Smith will be a good thing for the team, but unless Geno can play better in the next three games against some stiff pass defenses, will it be the best thing for the team?




63 comments
beers22
beers22

wow, a fair assessment of the Jets from the media, and USA Today, nonetheless.  The weird thing is I still feel the same away about Geno as I did when they drafted him.  I don't think he'll ever be a consistently good and borderline elite QB, but he seems to have all the tools to be a good and consistently plus QB if he can continue to learn and develop.  I'm curious to see what happens these last 3 games, but I don't think we'll see enough to tip the scales either way.

Jim Welker
Jim Welker

The last 3 games won't tell us much about Geno. We will need to draft a QB. I actually would like to see Simms play. He is a complete unknown. Jets should find out what they have in Simms. People write him off because of what happened in college. He was not mature in college like a lot of other people. But he has some arm and pedigree. Geno is not ready for prime time.

a57se
a57se

Apparently Rich Cimini thinks the Jets should try and get Kirk Cousins from the Redskins!

I'd say there are five or six QB's in this draft I'd rather see the Jets target. Cousins had 1 decent performance and a few not so good ones as a Redskin but we should chase him? That's nits to me.

McGeorge
McGeorge

>>Getting better options for Geno Smith will be a good thing for the team, but unless Geno can play better in the next three games against some stiff pass defenses, will it be the best thing for the team?


Without at least average receivers no QB the Jets get will have any chance of success.

The Jets need to use their 1st and 2nd round picks on receivers.  Maybe their third rounder too.  The only exception is if some fantastic value comes their way, like Teddy Bridgewater dropping to their draft spot (9th?)


Geno wasn't ready to start, and the team has terrible receivers = recipe for a terrible season that doesn't help his development.   But Rex isn't helping him either. 


It would be interesting to pick up a free agent QB and see if Geno can improve on the bench.  Else draft a QB the following year.

rstysanchz
rstysanchz

looking at genos college stats its hard to pass on him in the 2nd round especially if you needed a qb...if those stats are inflated because of bailey and austin lets get this guy some weapons quick and see what he can do 

Sabastian Stern
Sabastian Stern

Getting better options for Geno cannot possibly be a bad thing for this team, if anything, it'll help us find out sooner if Geno is the one to stick with or not -- it will take away the excuse of no weaponry.


If Geno is not the guy, who cares, we still would have added some much much needed years in the making firepower. 


The only way providing Geno with more weapons can go bad is if we sign a middle aged veteran to a big contract and we spend his good years and big money just to find out Geno is not the guy, and then he's no good to us after we move on from Geno (see: Santonio Holmes and Mark Sanchez)

harvlis
harvlis

I knew this would happen.  Geno goes up against a bad team, the Jets win, and he is suddenly considered a player again.  If you watched the game, his first seven or eight passes were off target.  His TD was thrown up for grabs.  He is not a good QB and, if the Jets don't go after a starting QB, at the end of this season, they would be making a horrible mistake.  If he goes out, this weekend, and has a great game against a good team, I will admit my mistake. That is not going to happen.  He will be running for his life.  I disagree with Tanier.  The Jets should have looked at Matt Simms, last week.  

a57se
a57se

Does anyone know where this media infatuation with Blake Bortles out of UCF came from?

a57se
a57se

Totally off-topic but does someone know how to change a bitmap to a jpeg?

I have a picture I would like to use as my avatar but it is a bitmap and that is not the right format to use based on twitter.

a57se
a57se

My Goal for Geno this week vs. Carolina:


61% completions, 230 Yards with 1TD min. and no more then 1 INT. 40 yards on 5 runs at the most. NO FUMBLES!


These passing stats are roughly the average of what Mike Glennon did in two games vs. Carolina (both were losses for TB).

If he can manage this then I would say he has shown a little progress which would be a good thing!


Bernard Mclaughlin
Bernard Mclaughlin

I say , regardless of what happens with Geno you take the best available QB in the 2nd round. use other picks for Offense maybe  safety.on D.


The use FA to get best available FA QB, Cutler, Clemons, not sure who else is out there.  Then get a WR  and fill other holes til you use up the payroll.


Plan on starting whoever the FA QB is, if a new rookie or Geno pulls away from the pack, work him in late in the season if the new QB falters.  For 45 years of watching football  I could count on one hand the number of rookie starting QB's that started from game 1 of their 1st year.  It became a craze when they started giving crazy 31 draft pick contracts, but that's over. get someone and develop him. if we wound up with an Alex Smith ype after 3 rs  I wouldn't complain.

here2win
here2win

No reason not to give Cousins a look see, would you rather him have some amazing game in Matt Flynn type fashion? Then turn out to be average?

dapoktan
dapoktan

yep.. I'd say give him next year as well.. Draft offense twice in the first 3 rounds next yr.. grab a Ebron or Lee.. get a TE and WR.. give Geno some weapons.. and if he still fails... in 2 yrs we'll have Mariota or Jameis to choose from

SackDance99
SackDance99

To be fair to Geno, he had Kerley back and he's 6-3 when Kerley catches a pass (5-1 at home).  Clearly, his bouts of ineptitude go beyond the Jets' lack of talent in the receiving corps.  However, when he has had just 1 reliable pass catching threat, he's played much better.  That's why his next 3 games are so important.  If he's competent with what the Jets have now, we all could have some hope that with better talent, Geno would play much better.


Plus, he was skittish to start the game against the Raiders, but he still led a drive that put points on the board and I thought his pass to Kerley was exactly the type of pass he should've made in that situation.  It was high, Kerley was looking back and the defenders weren't.  It was maybe a tad late, but the "he put it up for grabs" comment applies to every successful NFL QB.  For once, Geno displayed confidence in his receiver to make a play and that's important.  Also, after that TD, Geno played with command and was more decisive.  After 3 horrific games and a significant benching, this was an encouraging outing.

juunit
juunit

All depends on which QBs actually enter the draft. It could be that the best strategy is to hold off until 2015 for one. Though I admit, I said the same thing last year, and it's going to be a very tiring offseason if I spend it all saying the same things.

a57se
a57se

You would change your opinion of Geno based on one game?

juunit
juunit

Nope.

Todd McShay said he's #1 (because Todd McShay is such a brilliant analyst.) Then Brian Griese said the same thing during the UCF-SMU game. All of a sudden, he's a media darling. Griese also said he doesn't think Bridgewater is that good. He had Johnny Manziel as the #2 draft eligible QB in the country behind Bortles. (Then Mariota, then Bridgewater, then Hundley... he seems to just like guys who can run.) I think I'd probably respect Griese's opinion more if he was his father.

Gotta say, I wasn't impressed with Bortles during that SMU game. Underthrows, inaccuracy, lots of screens to pad the stats. Didn't look much like an NFL pocket passer to me. But, it was one game, and it was very cold, so I'll withhold a final opinion on him until I see more of his play. 

jetlife
jetlife

@me 11-1 Record and in a BCS game, beat some good teams(Penn State off the top of the head)

SackDance99
SackDance99

Glennon has better receiving options and their running game has also been solid.  Not a straight up comparison.

a57se
a57se

What purpose is there in trading for Cousins? Do you think somehow that guy is the answer?

I mean, there are lots of guys out there who haven't gotten legit shots, should we try them all?


Brendan
Brendan

Yeah, I'm not exactly falling in love with the "Teddy B and a bunch of project/flawed players" bunch. 

a57se
a57se

I think I agree with you again. Bortles did not jump out at me like Jameis Winston does and he didn't play smart like McCarron.

It is almost like these guys just want to get page views so now they are making stuff up!.

a57se
a57se

Do you just save it as a jpeg? I opened the picture in Paint to crop it but I am not that savy with this stuff.

a57se
a57se

You aren't concerned that Cutler will eat up too much of our cap space?

a57se
a57se

Of course but it doesn't take very much consideration to eliminate quite a few of the possibilities, including Kirk Cousins.

Bent
Bent

Should we try them all?  No.


Should we consider them all?  Yes.

Jim Welker
Jim Welker

Geno is just as much of a project/flawed player.

a57se
a57se

Interesting the way Glennons' season has gone. TB had him throwing the ball 40+ times a game his first 4 games and they went 0-4, then they cut way back on the passing to the low to mid 20's per game and they've gone 4-2! Either way you look at it 15 TD's and only 7INT's in 10 games is pretty good with 60+% completions for a rookie!

Brendan
Brendan

@Zartan I am prepared to eat crow on that one, I'm still shocked he's played this well. I wouldn't be surprised to see a serious sophomore regression out of him, but he's absolutely not as bad as I thought. 

Eddy Lopez
Eddy Lopez

The qb from LSU in the 3rd/4th would be nice if he falls.

juunit
juunit

You're really gonna ask that 3 days after he has a game where he completed 36% of his passes for 90 yards?

Zartan
Zartan

@Brendan , How are you feeling about Glennon now? you scoffed at my every mention of the kid.

juunit
juunit

Sure, I'd take Boyd in the 3rd. I would've taken him in the first in last year's draft.


But I think his "stock dropping" is just the internet overreacting to the FSU game. I really see no scenario where he lasts that long, unless he gets arrested for selling heroin or something.


But, I also don't see Boyd as one of those surefire prospects. He just would've been the best guy last year.

a57se
a57se

There are examples of mid round guys making it as I am sure you are aware but most of the time it is the top of the draft guys who are successful long-term.

I wouldn't take a mid-round QB on general principles but there are exceptions to every rule. I think guys like Fales, McCarron, Mettenberger or Murray might all be avaialble then and worth a pick this year. Mettenberger and Murray because of injury would more than likely drop.
 What about a guy like Tahj Boyd? You have expressed interest in him before, I believe, and I've seen his stock drop a lot lately........you wouldn't take him in the third?

juunit
juunit

I just don't like the general logic of a mid-round QB. There's barely any current NFL starters who weren't drafted very early. So I feel like we'd be wasting a 3rd/4th rounder, which could be used on an extremely valuable player at a different position.

a57se
a57se

While I agree with you, taking a kid this year in the third or fourth round when we have 12 picks isn't that costly. 

There are some interesting guys in this draft who may be available then.

juunit
juunit

Yup. Better than last year isn't the same as a bunch of surefire prospects. And since I do think there are a number of those guys in college, I'd want to wait for them.

a57se
a57se

Hey! My new Avatar showed up this MORNING! Woohoo!

a57se
a57se

Well, I changed the bitmap to a JPEG and twitter accepted the picture for my profile then I logged out here and logged back in and my pic still doesn't show!

I guess I am stuck being an Egghead!

a57se
a57se

I'll look tonight after I get home, Thanks!

Marcus Armstrong
Marcus Armstrong

@me I haven't used a windows machine in a long time, but I expect there would be an "export" option. Otherwise, "Save as" would probably do the trick.