One TJB reader’s take on a Jets-focused draft board

Longtime TJB reader and self-professed “Mayor of the Draft” TSCJ68 has spent a load of time putting together a draft board using the same methodology as many NFL teams and has graciously agreed to share it with our readers. This would be a great resource before, during and after the draft and also gives us plenty of discussion material

Here’s just a snap-shot which should give you an idea of how the board has been put together.

As you can see, players have been grouped by position and by draftable round. This covers all seven rounds together with undrafted free agents and also includes a top 300 ranking list.

To view the image in all its glory go here and then click on the image to enlarge.

There’s more detail from TSCJ68 about how this can be used after the jump.

My rankings aren’t simply team-neutral evals, but are skewed to how I think the Jets would/should value these players (i.e., the RB evals take into account Mornhinweg’s preference for pass-catching ability and elusiveness over brute force/tackle breaking, the OLBs are sorted into Rush OLBs vs. Utility OLBs with an eye on who can handle Rex’s various assignments, CBs have a preference for press-man vs. off-zone, etc.). Because of this, some guys who might be lower in a more traditional, one-size-fits-all board would be higher preference for our team.

And this isn’t a ranking to simply say “Take this guy in this round”; obviously, part of drafting is the game theory to identify which guys you might have a 3rd round grade on that you think the rest of the league would undervalue and might still be there in the 6th round. It’s more a ranking of “this guy deserves a grade this high, so taking him here wouldn’t be a bad move because he’s worth it”.

TSCJ68 has agreed to make himself available in the comments below if you have any questions about how to interpret the information or just want to discuss any of his rankings and preferences as the draft approaches.




124 comments
Jonathan Gallo
Jonathan Gallo

I did a mock draft with your big board

18 WR BRANDIN COOKS OREGON STATE

49 DE DEMARCUS LAWRENCE BOISE STATE

80 G DAKOTA DOZIER FURMAN

104 CB ROSS COCKRELL DUKE

115 S KENNY LADLER VANDERBILT

137 ILB DEDE LATTIMORE SOUTH FLORIDA

154 TE A.C. LEONARD TENNESSEE STATE

195 CB B.J. LOWERY IOWA 

209 ILB GREG BLAIR CINCINNATI

210 OT CHARLES LENO BOISE STATE

213 S SHAMIEL GARY OKLAHOMA STATE

233 FB RYAN HEWITT STANFORD

Tequila Joe
Tequila Joe

TSJC-

I do have a list of questions but I'm sure you have better things to do than answer all of them. So here is one, What make you think Scott Crichton can play Sam? He seems to be a 6-technique and nothing more...

Thanks, T. Joe

Tequila Joe
Tequila Joe

I am thoroughly impressed with your chart. It's nice to see someone's passion for the draft come together in such a way. Just awesome! I can't say I'm in complete agreement with all the rankings, but to each his own. Great job!

BenNevis
BenNevis

tsjc—

Like the way you weighted your evals specifically to fit the Jets' O & D.

Good to have you back here—have missed your comments big time (even though I no longer comment here very often myself). Your posts were a hell of a lot of fun (sometimes smart and focused fun, sometimes just fun). So much so I often thought you should be writing a blog post here (as opposed to comments section posts) yourself. And now you are. (My guess is that the ever discerning Bent had something to do with this, and if so, I applaud him for it.)

Hope you are happy and well, tsjc.

Bytor
Bytor

Duuuhuuude, simply duuuhuuude!

namvetjet
namvetjet

I am constantly amazed at the knowledge and talent of the TJB community.

Paul Samuels
Paul Samuels

This is insane man! Anyone offer you a scouting job yet? 

Hazard2012
Hazard2012

Outstanding job!   Seeing the board laid out like this, rather than as a series of disjointed lists, puts a different perspective on the entire draft process.   Ditto your insight into who is and isn't a good fit to the Jets' particular needs.


Teddy being rated so high and Gilbert so low were the biggest surprises for me.  Personally, I'm not fond of the idea of taking a QB early because of the high quality of players likely to be available at positions of greater need...but I guess one could argue the opposite.   I still think it'll be a WR or CB, or Ebron if they're gone, and an OLmen if they're all off the board. 


Am curious, however, why you seem to think Shazier would be a much better pick than Mosley given how highly touted, with somewhat similar skill sets, both are.   Am I reading that correctly?    

bklyndude
bklyndude

Jack Bauer returned last night and killed a few guys and now tsjc68 returns today with a bang..........nice board.

I take it you like Dennard a lot and would take him if he made it to 18,  and then  Cooks,  Beckham,  Fuller  and Lee in that order.

Wilshire
Wilshire

Really tremendous job. Made me think about the draft quite differently. Top stuff.

Disgruntled Jets Fan
Disgruntled Jets Fan

Tsjc!  Nice work man.  I should've waited for this before making my contest picks (which were randomly chosen).

bradysucks
bradysucks

You have Manziel ranked like you think he's Tebow........


I think you're way off on the QB rankings.....way way off......Bortles is better than Bridgewater....so is Manziel (in my opinion)


Your take is interesting though and very different from most of the mock drafts.......I give you this.....You are staying true to yourself

buckets
buckets

Mr 68,

I signed in from my phone, which I never do, just to say hi. This is great, btw. Nice work. Wish I had an appropriate Simpson's video for the occasion.

Formerly mike francesser.

Stanley Bostitch
Stanley Bostitch

Great stuff. Interesting that you have Bridgewater at your top overall prospect (if I'm reading this correctly). He seems to have fallen out of favor so dramatically with pundits recently - what are your thoughts on him? And welcome back (and thanks for this great resource).

kniff
kniff

Professor 68, 


So great to see you on the "main blog"......You been sorely missed by many on here!

Bent
Bent moderator

@Tequila Joe  He answered this in a comment further down:


"Many of those LBs could do multiple roles (Van Noy most obviously).  Looking at Rex's scheme, the Utility LB is a more challenging role than the Rush (in terms of what you need to be able to do) and similarly the Jack is more challenging than the Ted.  So, if I think a guy can be both a Utility AND a Rush, he goes in the Utility column.  Doesn't mean he can't rush the passer, just means I'm drafting him for the harder role first and kicking him to the other side if he can't handle it.  Hope that helps.  KVN and Scott Crichton and Jeremiah Attaochu can most definitely rush the passer, but if they can do that while filling the edge-setter role, they're more valuable.  [Re:] Crichton.  I'm bullish on his ability in space setting the edge and dropping. "

Bent
Bent moderator

@BenNevis  I can't take the credit here, 68 approached me.  Rest assured though we were more than happy to accommodate him as this was great stuff.

tsjc68
tsjc68

@Hazard2012  I have Mosley and Shazier as virtually even, grade-wise.  Mosley is probably a small bit better than him but Shazier seems healthier and a bit quicker/faster.  If both are on the board together, I'd probably pick Shazier. 


I'm firmly against Mosley at R1#18.  Not a good value, too much injury risk for what I feel is not a high impact position.  I'm anti Shazier at R1#18, as well, but I could get more on board with that than with Mosley.  


I'd much rather wait for Day 3 ILBs like Lamin Barrow, Jonathan Brown, DeDe Lattimore, Derrell Johnson (who could probably handle both the Ted and the Jack role (and maybe even all four roles, he's a personal fave), Jordan Tripp, etc.

tsjc68
tsjc68

It's not quite that simple, but sure. What's missing from this board in order to turn it into a true drafting strategy is good intel on what the other 31 clubs are thinking and planning, the kind of intel that civilians like us don't have.

As in, I like Fuller over Lee but might take Lee over Fuller depending on how I think the other teams in the draft value the other CBs and WRs behind them so I can make reasonable assumptions about what other CB options (like Cockrell, Breeland, Reynolds, Lowery, Jean-Baptiste, etc.) I can take later.

tsjc68
tsjc68

Full disclosure: were they both in this class, I'd have Tebow ranked HIGHER than Manziel. They're both strictly developmental upside plays. Neither is a functional, Day 1 NFL starter. Both will be drafted in R1. Neither should be drafted before R4.

tsjc68
tsjc68

My thoughts on him are that for the past three years he's been the best non-Andrew Luck QB in college football and a bad pro day isn't enough to override acres of superior game tape. Bortles, Manziel, Carr et. al. aren't in his league and never were.

Quarterbacking is about making decisions and plays under pressure. He does that worlds better than everyone else. Worlds better.

kniff
kniff

(you've)

Oh, and there was a chat I was late to a few months ago at this point, and you were quite adamant about Eric Ebron at 18, and you argued that he WAS a WR...Do you still want him as badly at 18 today?


BenNevis
BenNevis

Bent—

Even though tsjc was the one who approached you, you were the one who saw the merit in having him present this here. (Actually, there's a Bent-like thoroughness in tsjc's draft board.) And, yes, as you say, it's great stuff. But great stuff isn't often appreciated or published, and crap is published instead (as in the Daily News, for just one instance). But in the end, yes, as you suggest, the ultimate credit for this must obviously go to tsjc himself.

Hazard2012
Hazard2012

@tsjc68 @Hazard2012  


Was thinking more of either one of them as being a much better value if they lingered into the second round, within range of our moving up to get them.   Harris leaves something to be desired and, with his bloated salary, might be someone Idzik may want to find a replacement for.  Just a thought. 

bradysucks
bradysucks

I don't think Manziel is anything like Tebow. Tebow was a musclebound guy with limited flexibility and an awful throwing motion

Manziel is far more creative and quick than Tebow. Manziel isn't musclebound.

Manziel needs an offensive coordinator who knows how to use him but he reminds me more of Steve Young than he does Tim Tebow

Manziel could be like Favre.....Favre wasn't great early on in his NFL career but developed into something special

bradysucks
bradysucks

@Brendan @bradysucks  


None....


I've watched tape on him.....


I watched a ton of Manziel's games and a lot of the LSU games....


I was a believer in Bridgewater at one point but I'll be honest. I don't think he came across as a leader in any of the interviews I watched with him. I also think Mike Mayock makes some very good points about Bridgewater being immature and needing at least one redshirt season in the NFL.....


I am far more impressed with Geno Smith than Bridgewater.....


I also have seen enough tape on Bortles to know that he has great arm strength and a Big Ben type of body.....I think he has more upside if you develop him than Bridgewater..


I've made it no secret that Manziel is my top QB

tsjc68
tsjc68

Someone will take some other QB over Teddy Bridgewater on Thursday and then regret it for the next four decades. (I'm looking at you, Jimmy Haslam.)

buckets
buckets

We'll see. Not sure what you base that on. His game tape is clearly the best. Not the flashiest, but the most quarterback-y.

Stanley Bostitch
Stanley Bostitch

@tsjc68  So if Bridgewater is there at 18, do you bite? Or if he's there at your second round pick (no brainer?)

tsjc68
tsjc68

Yes. He'd be a wonderful pick at 18.

tsjc68
tsjc68

@Hazard2012 @tsjc68  I can agree with that thought.  If one of Shazier or Mosley is still on the board at R2#49, that's a value that's really hard to pass up.  It's like Geno last year.


Wasn't in the plans, but good enough to take and then make a new plan.

bradysucks
bradysucks

Steve young had to make the same transition. So did Favre.

All I know is that Bridgewater was clearly the top QB at one point and he looked terrible at his pro day. His accuracy apparently was Tebow like. Since then it appears that he is falling on team's draft boards.

Jury is still out on Bridgewater who was a great college QB. Despite TSJ 's confidence in him....TB still needs to prove it in the NFL (just like Manziel)

bob
bob

@bradysucks Brady just one thing to consider at the next level that the pass rushers are much faster in the NFL Manziel is not gonna be as allusive as he was in college he gonna have a learning curve and its gonna take time and right personnel before he will  any good at the next level.

bradysucks
bradysucks

I will remember this conversation....

I hope Manziel goes to a team that believes in him and a coach who lets him be himself....If he does I think he'll have a great career....but I do expect some Favre moments early on (rookie Favre)

tsjc68
tsjc68

They're very different prospects. Neither of them remotely has game tape that screams "first round talent".

Both are super raw. Both need tons of work on pro-style mechanics and read progressions. Both freelance and abandon the play WAY TOO MUCH (as in, criminally too much).

Tebow would get a higher grade, despite being even less pro-ready amongst these two non-pro-ready guys, due to measurables.

Brendan
Brendan

@bradysucks  You can argue Manziel vs. Bridgewater, even though I think one is much more likely to succeed at the next level (and it's not the one you think will), but I just think Bortles is a class below all of the top QB's in this draft, I never understood why he was so highly coveted, to be honest. 

bradysucks
bradysucks

I guess we'll find out which one of us is right.....

Your draft board speaks for itself

tsjc68
tsjc68

That Alabama game shows that Manziel is a great college QB. Little to nothing from that tape indicates NFL potential, though.

bradysucks
bradysucks

Manziel will be drafted before Bridgewater....because he is more exciting and he performed much better at his pro day and during the interview process...

No doubt the game tape on Bridgewater was good.....

I guess you never watched Manziel pick apart Alabama a few years ago....pretty good game tape....great talent

tsjc68
tsjc68

If you think Johnny Manzeil has better game tape than Teddy Bridgewater and Blake Bortles, I have no earthly clue what you are looking for on game tape and I weep for your future.

bradysucks
bradysucks

@buckets  


Geno Smith is better than TB

buckets
buckets

The browns are hot for Manziel. That should tell you something, ha.

We have no idea if Bridgewater has fallen out of favor with many teams. I hope he has through. I'd love to snag him in round 2. Hell , I think long and hard if he was there at 18.

bradysucks
bradysucks

@buckets  


I think Manziel has the best game tape.....


I was on board with Bridgewater until I saw a bunch of interviews with him......and let me tell you he isn't half as sharp as Geno Smith (in my opinion).....I'll take Geno over Bridgewater any day........I also think Mike Mayock gave a good evaluation of Bridgewater who has fallen out of favor with many teams