Predicting the future? Looking at ESPN’s Future Power Rankings and the Jets

As we begin the heavy lifting over the next two weeks in preparation for training camp and the 2014 season, here’s ESPN’s future power rankings run by their top analysts with panels to grade specific areas of all 32 NFL teams from roster composition, quarterback, the team’s drafting history along with front office and coaching. Last year, the Jets were at the back of the pack when ESPN analysts ranked the team. This year the team was ranked 22nd by ESPN.com, which are designed to determine teams positioned for success over the next three seasons.

The breakdown, with five categories ranked on a scale of 10 points (2013 grade in parentheses) and then weighted was as follows:

  • Roster — 6.0 (3.8)
  • Quarterback — 7.0 (3.2)
  • Draft — 7.1 (5.3)
  • Front Office — 7.4 (5.0)
  • Coaching — 8.8 (3.7)

Compared to last year, there’s not a single grade that went down.  The team’s talent is better, the quarterback position is more stable with Sanchez gone and Smith being backed up by Mike Vick.  The team has done a great job in the draft, coming away with a number of starters in Idzik’s first year and potential playmakers again in the team’s second year.  There’s also more confidence in the front office and coaching staff.

We’ll take the comments from the ESPNers in snippets and then add our two cents after each section:

The overview: The Jets’ coaching outlook improved 20 spots, from last to 12th, which ties with the Jaguars’ drafting leap for largest year-over-year gain in any single category. It’s not that Rex Ryan suddenly rediscovered how to coach; it’s that his ability to go 8-8 with a struggling rookie QB led to a contract extension that could help him stay with the team for the longer term. The team’s coaching outlook is better now that Ryan is no longer considered a long shot to keep his job. The Jets ranked between 20th and 28th in every category other than coaching. That isn’t great, but the team did gain ground in every category since the past offseason. The lack of optimism over Geno Smith stands out, but the Jets did rank ahead of Minnesota, Buffalo, Houston and Tennessee in QB voting. –Mike Sando

Brian Bassett, TheJetsBlog.com

As a reminder, Sando recently posted an article (ESPN, July 3) in which Geno Smith was ranked dead last among starting quarterbacks the NFL.

If there was any perceptive jump on the Jets coaching, it has less to do with Rex Ryan and more to do with another coach.  No offense to Ryan, but we believe that a large part of the regained general league-wide confidence in Ryan stems from the savvy hiring of Marty Mornhinweg as the team’s offensive coordinator.  With MM in the house, Ryan didn’t have to manage the likes of Tony Sparano or Brian Schottenheimer.  Mornhinweg demonstrated that he is fully capable of running an NFL offense and did his best to help an with the team’s obvious talent concerns at the skill and quarterback positions.

Not to beat a dead horse, but Bucky Brooks had an excellent summation of Brian Schottenheimer and his failures so far as a coordinator on the ATL podcast (NFL, June 6 start at 25:30 mark), saying that “great play callers … take the strengths of a quarterback and they find a way to recycle those same concepts over and over again by giving you window dressings with formations and motions.”  Instead, Schotty recycled window dressings to set up plays that would break the tendency of prior plays — it’s betting on the play call rather than the strength of the player and it’s the exact opposite of how Rex Ryan runs his defense and as I’ve seen so far from Mornhinweg, the way he runs his offense.


The dilemma: On the positive side, the Jets are set up to have maximum cap and cash flexibility going forward, and they have the makings of a dominant defense with the future addition of an edge rusher and another corner. On the negative side, they are a work in progress on offense. The future really depends on Smith’s development, which will be affected by the ability of the front office to continue building around him and by the stability of the coaching staff going forward. Nonetheless, they appear to be on the right track. –Louis Riddick

Brian Bassett, TheJetsBlog.com

The Jets are trying to grow their own when it comes to the two defensive positions mentioned.  Quinton Coples is more than poised to take that leap as pass rusher, he was hindered by his fracture at the start of last season but came on strong.  Kyle Wilson might have one foot out the door after this year, but the team seems to love (for right or wrong) Dexter McDougle.

Even though the Jets are likely going to face some big-money deals one-year at a time over the next five years, the reigning in on spending has opened wide the possibilities for the Jets when it comes to the cap.  John Idzik doesn’t seem like a man in a rush to use up all his cap space (he still has over $20 million on the cap) and he’s not racing to get a deal done with Mo Wilkerson, the Jets best player.

It does boil down to Geno Smith.  The team’s long-term plan will revolve around whether Geno Smith can take the bump in offensive talent and the lessons he learned last season (and was implementing in December) and make the leap.  Otherwise, the Jets are going to have to come up with another long-term plan. 


The youth movement: Ryan has managed to maintain a consistently strong defense in New York, even with the talent level at safety a constant question. Look for rookie Calvin Pryor to change that conversation quickly, as he’s a potential defensive rookie of the year and will be the QB for the defense. On offense, Jace Amaro can help create different looks and put more pressure on defenses with his size out of the slot. The young talent on this team is looking better and better. –Mel Kiper

Brian Bassett, TheJetsBlog.com

Ryan has long coveted top talent at his cornerback position, but the stress that the spread formation and “12″ personnel packages have put on NFL defenses might have John Idzik and Rex Ryan requiring more on their safeties.  The NFL will be an adjustment for Pryor, but we trust that Ryan can keep it simple for Pryor early on before adding a larger playmaking role by season end.  We are looking for good things from Amaro, but if he can catch 30-45 catches in his first year that might be enough with the additions of Eric Decker, Chris Johnson and the rookie receivers.  Tight ends usually see their production increase after their first season, and playing the F receiver role will be a big adjustment, even for the very capable Amaro.



169 comments
Mark Phelan
Mark Phelan

I wish I were more optimistic about the OL.  Last year Geno had nightmares picking up a blitz and dealing with pressure.  I expect quicker release time this year but also hope OL will give him that extra half-second a young QB might need.

__fense
__fense

So Rex Ryan and Marty Mornhinweg jump up 20 spots on the ranking because they are so much better than... Rex Ryan and Marty Mornhinweg? I'm sure they didn't factor in the new ST coach. 


Remember that the Contract extension Rex got was only one more year, so he's on exactly the same hot seat he was on last year. That is, not at all. The only difference is this year ESPN isn't making up a ridiculous controversy for no reason. Last year, he's ranked last because they assume that he's terrible and deserves to be fired, and this year he's ranked 12th because they think he's exactly as terrible but won't be fired? Their reasoning doesn't make any sense.

williamg1
williamg1

Power rankings seem to be rankings of where teams are at 'right now.' Nothing like a future 'right now' rankings. 


Training camp can't come fast enough. 

Ron Alexander
Ron Alexander

Come on Bass, your not gonna be one of those guys bragg'n on last years draft" because we got 5 starters?)"  Come on Dude, two of those "starters were the lowest ranked players at their respective positions (Winters & Bohanon) and two others (Geno & Milliner) did show the potential to turn into players but neither had good over all seasons. Only Richardson can be considered a sure thing at this point as Milliners collegiate career resulted in 7 surgeries before we even drafted him so there has to be even a moderate degree of concern regarding his ability to stay healthy and Geno's has proven only that he can be decent if we don't ask him to do too much (which will limit his mistakes but also his upside!) And has far as the unexpected 8-8 season vs. the early negative prognostications lets keep in mind 4 of those victories came against 4-12 teams and we also lost to three 8-8 teams,one 7-9 team and the 6-10 Bills (who smoked us by 23 when they got all the players back from injury that missed our win earlier in the year. 

rkymtnjet
rkymtnjet

David Nelson on how he views talking heads [crapping] on the Jets:


"We try to ignore it, but any player who says he doesn't pay attention to it either doesn't own any electronic device, or is making it up!

We see it.. we hear it.. For most of us, it adds fuel to the fire. As a competitor, you are always looking for that competitive fuel, and the media seems to create a lot of it for us."

williamg1
williamg1

@rkymtnjet I wonder how many times he'll be asked who the starting QB will be.

tsjc68
tsjc68

@__fense

Apparently head coaching wasn't dead last last year because Rex isn't a good coach, but because Rex was bound to be fired by Idzik after he finished dead last (in the season that hadn't happened yet).


They were ranking the Jets coaching staff as the worst in football because they were already discounting the Jets coaching staff by pretending that they'd already been fired (because Idzik totally doesn't like these guys, amirite?  REX WAS FORCED ON IDZIK AND HE'S JUST WAITING TO FIRE HIM).


And apparently after Rex and Marty and DT got fired they were going to be replaced by newly-hired coaches who also happened to be the dumbest coaches in the league, so... #32, natch.

a57se
a57se

@__fense 

I'm pretty sure Rex got a two year extension but it is relatively cheap for the Jets to get out of...

__fense
__fense

@Ron Alexander You're ignoring a whole lot of context. What team had a better crop of rookies last year than us? Maybe Tampa? Did anyone get 5 'sure things'? I know only one other team got a ROY, and they only had one as well. 


Milliner's '7 surgeries' is also lacking in context. How many games did he miss in college? Was he negatively affected by the injures that he got the surgeries for, or were they just routine procedures that he got because modern medicine allows him to do that, when ten years ago he would have just played through it? 


You're also missing out on the capability of Geno to improve in any way. He's 'proven' that he can only be decent under certain conditions? Come on.


Then we get you're creative retelling of our record. Context is acknowledging that we didn't go 4-5 last year. You're missing a few games, where we both won and lost against good teams. Should we not keep in mind that we beat teams with franchise QBs like Brady and Brees? You took the time to mention that the Bills had injured players when we beat them. Wouldn't it be important to note that we had some key players missing when they beat us? If you did, that would have been you adding context.


Without context, it's just spin. 

Bent
Bent moderator

@Ron Alexander Winters was never the lowest ranked player at his position.  He was bottom five all year though.

Brian Bassett
Brian Bassett moderator

@Ron Alexander ??? 


Nope, never said that.  But drafting the DROY, a corner who had 10 PDs in the last two weeks of the season and a rookie QB who was working with very little along with some roleplayers and then went back again into the draft this year and filled many needs through BPA doesn't seem like a team headed in the wrong direction.

You also fail to mention that they beat the Patriots in overtime, bested the Saints and knocked the obviously sliding Falcons off the block.

But don't let that ruin your narrative.

tsjc68
tsjc68

@williamg1 @rkymtnjet

The new controversy isn't "Who will start under center?" but "Won't Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson be fighting over carries, each of them pouting and ready to kill the other one?"


KEEP UP, WILLIAM.

__fense
__fense

@a57se @__fense It's a two year extension that overrides the one year he had left on his current deal, so one additional year that he didn't already have. 

Ron Alexander
Ron Alexander

@__fense @Ron Alexander O.k fair point about the injuries vs. the Bills. So lets look at those games, in game 1 the Bills were missing two starters at the WR position including their #1 player Stevie Johnson. In the secondary they were missing the all pro saftey Byrd and both starting corners.So against a patch work secondary and an offense with no down field threats we managed to eak out a 4 point win. In game two when Johnson played and their secondary was back in tact we got destroyed 37-14. And who was missing from our line up in that game that you want to compare to Byrd or their two corners or Stevie Johnson. Hey you don't want to go there my context friend because last year was one of our best years in terms of injuries as our O-line was in tact all season and really we had very few serious injuries any place last year. As for Milliners injury history, yes it was a problem last year as he missed the entire OTA program as a result of his shoulder surgery from his last season at Bama and he later suffered an ankle injury during the pre-season that further slowed down his progress and contributed to his poor early season play. And who the heck knows how any of his prior injuries that required surgery will impact him(and us)down the road. Any injury that requires surgery will at some point lead to an arthritic condition that may effect his ability to stay on the field long term. As for the games I omitted lets not forget loosing to three 8-8 teams that were by their standards poor seasons, a drubbing(38-13) by 7-9 Tennessee team so the context argument goes both ways. Hey, if you want to hang your hat on two great wins against teams with winning records be my guest. The reality is the combined records of the teams we beat were 53 wins vs. 75 loss's and we were outscored on the season by about 100 points so that 8-8 record looks even worse when you add in your context.

Ron Alexander
Ron Alexander

@Bent @Ron Alexander yeah, I know I think he was like 57th or 59th out of 62 but what ever it was it wan't like he was up for the pro bowl or any thing.

Ron Alexander
Ron Alexander

@Brian Bassett @Ron Alexander Brian, i acknowledged our Droy but you said that "the team has done a great job in the draft coming away with 5 starters last year" to which i questioned 4 of those 5 starters. Would they all have made the roster on some of the better teams much less started? The fact is we did beat 4 4-12 teams plus a few others that had poor seasons by their standards.And we lost to two other teams with loosing records so really, that 8-8 season was little more than a mirage that could have just as easily been a 4-12 season. This team has so many question marks going into this season starting with the unquestionably most important QB position. The the o-line has one definite new starter,two shaky starters at the Guard position and zero depth at the tackle position. Hey, believe it or not I am a 100% die hard Jet fan. I just choose to be realistic about the team because at 62 I want to see my Jets win another super bowl before i join my ancestors in heaven(or where ever i wind up). I'm not sure they even get the NFL package in heaven so I don't want to miss anything.

Ron Alexander
Ron Alexander

@a57se @Ron Alexander LOL, yeah, you probably forgot but you always say that to me. I enjoy your posts because you and I are two of the few here who go against the grain. Nobody wants the Jets to do well more than I do but I prefer to keep it real.This team is more full of holes than a 10lb block of Finlandier Swiss cheese so there's no way i'm gonna order playoff tickets until i see a lot more progress that what the almighty Oz has provided us with so far. I see all the fanatic's buying into Izzy and so far I'm not impressed. He's now drafted 19 players in his two years here and I am very interested to see what the consensus here will be following the conclusion of this season as to how people feel about him then when all the pre-season hoopla has come and gone and replaced with the reality of where ever we end up. Bye the way, don't worry about me preparing myself because I never show up to a gun fight with a pocket knife so I'm always ready for a good argument. 

Joe/Orlando
Joe/Orlando

@__fense @a57se I don't think that that's right. Reports were he is signed through 2016 with 2016 probably being that option year.

a57se
a57se

@__fense @a57se 

I don't know _fense, I just went to several google links and they all say Rex' extension was through 2016 but the Jets have an easy out as a lot of Rex' money is in incentives...

__fense
__fense

@Ron Alexander You looked up who was injured for the Bills but you didn't even both to look up who was injured for us? Or do you just know things that can make the Jets look bad off the top of your head. How about every single WR that was in training camp with Geno Smith was injured, to start.  Cromartie was playing Injured. Also one of our Safeties (also an all-pro, coincidentally) had only been on the team for a few days, and was adjusting to the defense and his teammates.


We didn't really have a good year injury wise, it's just most of the guys that got hurt weren't the big names that out make ESPN. Pretty much all of our WRs got hurt, our pro bowl corner was hurt all season, and we had something like 7 guys with ACL tears. We didn't lose a starter on O-line all year, and that's great, but that's only one position group, and just about every other spot on the team, other than Fullback, every other position had guys miss games. Now, that's not uncommon in the NFL, and I wouldn't be surprised if our season as a whole was below average in the impact of injuries, but they can really make a big dent if they all happen at one position, like a WR when you have a rookie QB.


Milliner missing OTAs was planned for. If he didn't have the surgery, he could have participated fully, but missing OTAs while you recover from a surgery isn't the same thing as missing games due to injuries. The Preseason games he missed were because of an ankle sprain, which had nothing to do with the surgeries. He's never had an surgery on his ankle done, and sprains happen to everyone. I've sprained my ankle before, but that doesn't make me injury prone, and it doesn't make Milliner injury prone either.


When the team that won the super bowl only won 4 games against teams with winning records during the season, and the team that lost the super bowl only won 3 (against 2 opponents, one of whom only beat 1 team with a winning record), then winning two games doesn't sound so bad. That's context. Out of all of the 8-8 teams, we had the second hardest strength of schedule. Teams don't win 8 games against winning teams every year. Most teams lose to them, that's why they're winning teams. 2 wins against them is better than a lot of teams can say. 


You also have to look at the games and the things that happen in them. Historically, Rex Ryan has been winning to pull his starters and tell his players to play more conservatively in an effort to avoid injuries, because losing by 100 points is no different in the record books than losing by 1. He'll also try to control the game and run out the clock when he's winning, because he'd rather win by 1 and have no one get hurt than to win by 20 but have an injury. That effects the end score, but not the overall records, 


You're only throwing out numbers about the Jets, but you've got to look at the rest of the league, too. We were in the better half of the league last year, and we've only gotten better.

Brian Bassett
Brian Bassett moderator

@Ron Alexander @Brian Bassett I like that your Quote-UnQuote can't be found anywhere else on the page if you try to CTRL-F it.  Here's what I actually wrote:

"The team has done a great job in the draft, coming away with a number of starters in Idzik’s first year"


"A number" doesn't equal five.  Dee Milliner finally played well in December.  Their second pick became a DROY.  Their third pick started sixteen games and got better as the season went on.  The others will have to fight to keep their playing time ... I'm not crowning Brian Winters the next Alan Faneca and I never did.

__fense
__fense

@Ron Alexander @Brian Bassett How does ignoring all context to make the Jets look bad


A) Qualify as "being realistic"

and

B) make the Jets more or less likely to win another Super Bowl in your lifetime? 



I don't get why your age factors into it, but you guys always try to bring it up. The facts don't care how old you are, and the facts say that the Jets went 8-8 last year and have a young, promising roster. 

__fense
__fense

@Ron Alexander @Brian Bassett You're logic is incredibly flawed. Are you saying that beating a 4-12 team should be counted as a loss? What about beating the 11-5 Saints? Does that count as a win? If we really should have been a 4-12 team, does that mean that the Ravens really should have lost when they beat us? Does that mean that we really won? 


What about teams like the Chiefs? They only beat one team with a winning record all year. Does that mean that they would just as easily have a 1-15 season? Context. 

Brian Bassett
Brian Bassett moderator

@williamg1 @Brian Bassett @Ron Alexander I make Geno out to be a quarterback who needed a better backup to take over for him than Mark Sanchez should the need arise.

tsjc68
tsjc68

@williamg1 @tsjc68 @rkymtnjet

Terrifying Scenario #1 That Should Have Us All Tearing Out Our Hair In Panic: our players play poorly and we lose games as a result

Terrifying Scenario #2 That Should Have Us All Tearing Out Our Hair In Panic: our players play well and we have too many good players, thus creating locker-room tension as there are not enough footballs to go around and keep everyone happy, and this divisiveness and rancor poisons the club cameraderie and we lose games as a result

__fense
__fense

@a57se @__fense  If that's the case, then I'm mistaken. I'm probably getting thrown off by an option year or something. My point still stands. Woody Johnson has enough money that they could fire him today if Idzik wanted to. There's no job security in coaching, and the idea of him having three years instead of two is a ridiculous reason to rank a guy up 20 spots. The real reason is that they were dead wrong last year. 

Ron Alexander
Ron Alexander

@Brian Bassett @Ron Alexander Brian, I'm sensing a little tension here my friend.LOL! No sweat bro, I've just read so much nonsense about the "great 2013 draft' It just frustrates me when people are satisfied being mediocre. You and Bent among' st others here do a great job and I do love busting chops so like I said,don't sweat it bro.

a57se
a57se

@Brian Bassett @Ron Alexander 

I call foul...i read the same thing Ron did the first time through.

Your text CLEARLY said 5 starters from last years draft...not 'a number of starters' like it says now!

Ron Alexander
Ron Alexander

@__fense @Ron Alexander @Brian Bassett Again, don't take every thing so literally my man. Yes, I agree there is some young talent on our roster,and yes my age has nothing to do with how the Jets will do this season.My concern is that a lot of that talent has been over rated so that when i read how great it was to draft 5 starters I have to ask the question how many of them would have been starters on teams more ready to go to a super bowl? If the fact that we have no depth on our O-line,no proven starters at the corner positions,a new right tackle who's been a human penalty machine, one legit NFL above average wide receiver, no line backers that scare any body,a rookie starter at safety, a second year starter at the most important position on the team (QB) i just don't get all the overly positive stuff that is all over the place like here,ESPN (minus Cimini) and on the Jets official site. With all the questions plus others I didn't even mention i just don't think its realistic for us to be overly optimistic.As i am 62 My hope is that we do win another super bowl while I'm still here to enjoy it!

Ron Alexander
Ron Alexander

@__fense @Ron Alexander @Brian Bassett Come on bro, you know what I mean. No it should not count as a loss but how good should a 6 ft 5 inch 250 lb  25 year old guy feel about knocking out a 85 year old guy in a wheel chair ? My point is its not like we beat a bunch of great teams to get to a very mediocre 8-8. Hey, if that's what you want to call a successful season god bless you. I'm all about setting the bar higher because at 62 years old i don't have forever and like I said to Bass, there's no guarantee the NFL package is available in heaven?

juunit
juunit

@Brian Bassett 

*Than Matt Simms.

I'm not saying it's likely, but Sanchez could've proven himself to be capable if he'd had to come in when Smith got benched. He was never healthy enough to play in a regular season game though. 

tsjc68
tsjc68

@__fense @a57se


There's no job security in coaching, and the idea of him having three years instead of two is a ridiculous reason to rank a guy up 20 spots. The real reason is that they were dead wrong last year. 


I have nothing to add, I just wanted to repeat this louder.

a57se
a57se

@__fense @a57se 

I agree with your conclusion...they were so far off the mark last year, they had no choice this year.

__fense
__fense

@Ron Alexander @__fense @Brian Bassett Here's the issue. I shouldn't be taking you literally because you're exaggerating in order to make the team look worse. And that's the part I have a problem with. You're a Jets fan on a Jets blog. Why are you trying to argue against your team?  Why go through and try to pick out bad parts of last season while totally ignoring the good? The fact is, we were one game away from the playoffs last year. If we won any game that we lost, or if the Ravens don't beat the Lions in overtime on Monday night, and everything else works out the same, then we're in the playoffs. Obviously every year you don't win the Super Bowl is a failed season, but last year the Jets were better than most of the teams in the league, and they did it in a way that will set a foundation to get better and better in the future. Sure, they didn't win the division like the Patriots, but they also didn't wallow in defeat like the Bills or spend a ton of money and bet it all only to some up short like the Dolphins. I don't see how anyone looks at the Jets season last year and thinks that this team isn't headed in the right direction to win you your second Super Bowl in your lifetime. I don't know anything about your health, but if you aren't posting from your deathbed right now I fully believe that you are going to get it. 



And Woop De Do that you're 62. It doesn't make what you say reality. Do you think I don't hope that we win a Super Bowl while I'm still here to enjoy it? At least you got one. It's insulting to assume that you want another one more than I want my first. If Brendan's going to declare war on the phrase "Kool Aid Fans", then I'm going to spend the summer pointing out that being old doesn't make you a better fan, or smarter, or deserving to be negative for no reason. You want another SB win? Great. I want my first one. So get on board with everyone else to loves the Jets, instead of trying to fight against them for no reason. 

__fense
__fense

@a57se @__fense @Ron Alexander You ever notice how I never bring up you're age, or my age, unless someone else brings it up first? It's because my age and everyone else here's age has no basis on the facts revolving around the team. There's no scale that says that you're automatically right if you're above a certain age. Everyone sees people bring up how they're old and therefore they must be right and they take it as a sign that they don't need to take that person seriously, because if they were capable of using facts to back up their argument, they'd be talking about them instead of be trying to insult the other person based on their age.

__fense
__fense

@Ron Alexander @__fense @Brian Bassett The Context is that the good teams also got to play and beat bad teams. You're saying that we shouldn't count games against bad teams, but all of the other teams, including the records that we're basing which teams are good and which teams are bad, include games against bad teams. According to NFL Tiebreakers, we came in 14th in the NFL (and thus had the 18 pick in the draft), and had the second best 8-8 record out of all of the teams that had 8-8 records. You can say that it was a mediocre 8-8, but I'd have to disagree, and the entirety facts support my case. 

tsjc68
tsjc68

@a57se @tsjc68 @williamg1 @rkymtnjet

That's true of all 32 teams, though.  


I can't think of a single team off the top of my head who would be able to replace their franchise LT without breaking a sweat (except for the ones who don't have a franchise LT in the first place).

a57se
a57se

@Bent @a57se @Ron Alexander .

Where did Winters place out of how many ranked Guards in the NFL last season...you KNOW EXACTLY what information i am looking for Bent.

williamg1
williamg1

@Brian Bassett @williamg1 @Ron Alexander Of course he wasn't being brought in as a starter. But the fact he's with the Jets tells us this is his best chance to start. 


If the team knew Geno was the guy, there is no way they bring in Vick. Nor would they want to cut Geno's snaps in camp. 

Bent
Bent moderator

@williamg1 @Bent @a57se @Ron Alexander Hunter's 2011 grade was better (-24.6 rather than -27.4) and his positioning (71 of 76).  And he played 16 games, not 12.


People forget that he was terrible at the start and end of the season, but for a nine game stretch in the middle he was actually pretty competent (+4.5).


Winters was just negative in pretty much every game until right at the end of the year.

a57se
a57se

@williamg1 @Brian Bassett

Agreed!

You don't give your #1 QB 70% of the first team reps unless you are preparing a second option just in case.

tsjc68
tsjc68

@rkymtnjet @tsjc68 @a57se @williamg1

Like I said, I think the only teams who can lose their franchise LT without missing a beat are teams who didn't have a franchise LT in the first place.


Bryan Bulaga has never given the Pack an amazing level of LT play that they'd be hard-pressed to duplicate.

a57se
a57se

@rkymtnjet @tsjc68 

Has our offense EVER reminded you of the GB Packers OFFENSE over the last few seasons???

Brendan
Brendan

@williamg1 (Shocker) I think Mangold going down would be worse, but either one would be a disaster. 

tsjc68
tsjc68

@williamg1 @tsjc68 @a57se @rkymtnjet
I don't disagree.


Just saying that you can say that about every team in football (well, except for Peyton Manning's Broncos, since Peyton doesn't actually seem to need an offensive line, he just counts "One-Mississippi" and then fires the ball out, on time, in perfect rhythm and on target).

tsjc68
tsjc68

@__fense @rkymtnjet @tsjc68 @a57se @williamg1

Broken collarbone aside, the reason that the Pack were able to recover from losing 1st Round LT Bryan Bulaga to injury is because 1st Round LT Bryan Bulaga kinda sucked all along and 4th Round LT David Bakhtiari is just better than he was.


Its like Bledsoe getting injured for Brady.  Total blessing in disguise.

a57se
a57se

@tsjc68 @rkymtnjet @a57se @williamg1 

and brick hasn't done that for a few seasons either...he is having more and more trouble with speed off the edge and he has never been that good in the running game.

Bent
Bent moderator

@a57se @Bent @Ron Alexander That's a flawed premise because there are other guards that played worse than him and were benched before they could continue to play at a worse-than-Winters level and therefore ended up with a better grade or not qualifying for the list at all due to snap count.


Of the guys who played enough reps (50%) to be considered a starter, only 56 were better than Winters.

BDarc23
BDarc23

@williamg1 @BDarc23 @Brian Bassett @Ron Alexander Could it be that he is new to the team? Or that training camp hasn't started?

Bent
Bent moderator

@tsjc68 @__fense @rkymtnjet @a57se @williamg1 When Jared Veldheer went down, the Raiders went from bad to still bad, so there's a good example of a team that didn't miss a beat when they lost their franchise LT!

Bent
Bent moderator

@a57se @tsjc68 @rkymtnjet @williamg1 He was GREAT in the running game in 2008, 2009 and 2010.


I don't think the edge rush is that much of an issue for him either.  Every left tackle gets beaten outside sometimes when left on an island (as Brick ALWAYS is) and no doubt he was peeking inside a lot this year too.

tsjc68
tsjc68

@BDarc23 @tsjc68 @Bent @a57se @Ron Alexander

If it's any consolation to you, BDarc, while I (and pretty much all of the advanced basketball stats blogosphere) eagerly anticipate Andrea Bargnani being blasted into space on one of Richard Branson's rockets for hire, apparently Phil Jackson and Jose Calderon keep talking about how much better they think he'll be in the triangle and with Calderon as his partner.


So perhaps they won't be chaining him in the dungeon like I want them to.

williamg1
williamg1

@BDarc23 Can't see cutting a 2nd year QBs snaps to give the vet extra snaps. Geno really does need every available rep -- especially with new (young) receivers. 

tsjc68
tsjc68

@Bent @tsjc68 @__fense @rkymtnjet @a57se @williamg1

Touché.


I eagerly look forward to the Raiders passing offense improving after Austin Howard the Guard gets injured, finally opening passing windows for Matt Schaub as he no longer has to try to throw over the head of a 6'8" interior lineman.

tsjc68
tsjc68

@Bent @a57se @tsjc68 @rkymtnjet @williamg1

Every left tackle gets beaten outside sometimes when left on an island.


Often by design, it's worth mentioning.  Sometimes the LT's assignment is "Just force him wide enough that it takes him an extra split-second to turn upfield, but don't allow an inside rush."

BDarc23
BDarc23

@williamg1 @BDarc23 Well I kind of want Vick to start but... could it be that Rex learned from pampering Sanchez that he needs to do something different to develop Geno? This is the same team that never named Geno starter.

Bent
Bent moderator

@a57se @Bent @Ron Alexander The other list where he is 77 of 81, clearly 21 of the players on that list only played between 25 and 50% of the snaps so they aren't included in the other list.


Of those 21 one had a worse grade than him despite the lower snap count (Colin Brown).  However, out of those other 20 there were plenty of players with worse or comparable grades on a per snap basis.


In any case, three players did start and were worse, so you can't say he was the worst.  


Bottom five, like I said.

williamg1
williamg1

@BDarc23 I don't know. I just want our QBs to not suck for once. Just average play and I'll be happy. 

a57se
a57se

@Bent @a57se @Ron Alexander 

So where did he slot on a per snap basis...that is probably a fairer stat to look at.

williamg1
williamg1

@BDarc23 @williamg1 I like the idea of Vick starting. I just know he can't do a full season. I wouldn't mind seeing Vick start the season, and let Geno come off the bench when Vick gets hurt in week (5-12). 

Bent
Bent moderator

@a57se @Bent @Ron Alexander No, their attitude is that they measure someone's performance.  If they perform better, they get to play more.  Also, it would be unrealistic because certain situational roles are more likely to generate positive and/or negative grades than an every down player.


Anyway, Winters moves up slightly to 75th of 81.  Vlad is 71st.

Bent
Bent moderator

@a57se @Bent @Ron Alexander Nix was -43.8!!!


Anyway, that's one of the reasons I'm not as worried as some about the guard position.  They had terrible play from that spot all year and still went 8-8.  If nobody comes around this year would it really be that hard to just flip a pick to someone for a competent veteran or even just sign one off the street?  Heck, they could still be pretty bad and with the rest of our line, that gives us a plus group overall and certainly an upgrade over last year.

a57se
a57se

@Bent @a57se @Ron Alexander 

that is pretty frickin bad Bent...and it would have been even uglier if not for his improvement the last four games of the year...

a57se
a57se

@Bent @Ron Alexander 

Hey, we really need to go over the roster here....

There are just too many guys at certain positions...