Projecting the win total for the 2014 New York Jets

Brian Bassett, TheJetsBlog.com

Projecting a team’s win total is something that many scribes, advanced metrics sites (and of course Vegas bet makers) attempt to do during the doldrums after the NFL draft. In recent years tracking a team’s over/under has become a fun exercise, but often only enrages / delights particular fan bases.

When the initial odds came out on the Jets, the betmakers weren’t kind, projecting the Jets at 6.5 wins for the 2014 season. ESPN Insider’s Dave Tuley kicked off discussing the 2014 over / under season back in April when he looked at all 32 teams over / unders.

NFL: New York Jets at Miami Dolphins“[Adding] quarterback Michael Vick, running back Chris Johnson and receiver Eric Decker … has pushed the number to 7 and I would be surprised if we don’t see 7.5 as the more common number available.” Tuley wrote prior to the NFL Draft. “Considering how bad the Jets were at times last year and they still won eight games, it makes sense that people would be think the Jets would be at least .500 again and over the total, but I usually try to avoid jumping on an overflowing bandwagon.”

Meanwhile, our friend Will Brinson of CBSSports.com, who references Tuley’s article in his, is bullish about the Jets, taking the over on the more recent seven win line.

“Am I the only one getting a little excited about the Jets offense?” Brinson wrote this week. “It’s mostly name value, but Michael Vick, Chris Johnson, Eric Decker and Jace Amaro automatically mean this unit’s better than we’ve seen under Rex Ryan. RIGHT? … all Rex does is coach up defense. With a decent offense on the other side, I’m having a hard time not seeing him get this squad to .500. Rex’s 2013 was Coach of the Year worthy.”

I’d argue that only the 2010 roster had more offensive talent than this year’s version does. The team’s top three receivers Dustin Keller, Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes all caught more than 50 passes and running backs LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene combined for more than 2,100 yards from scrimmage, 1,600 of which were on the ground.

Brinson is right in that the name value associated with the Jets in some cases might outweigh the production, but he is also right that the team’s skill players are significantly better than they were a year ago. Even if this assembled group of ball carriers and pass catchers can be a middle-of-the-pack NFL offense Ryan is such a good defensive mind that that might be all it takes with a defense led by the likes of Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson, David Harris and Calvin Pryor.

So what do I think about the Jets over / under number? In the context of the whole schedule, the brutal October stretch (at Chargers, Broncos, at Patriots) doesn’t bother me as much as the thought that the Jets might do something at the quarterback position based on how those games go. Would a bad three games from whoever is the starter cause Ryan to pull the plug on that player? Will the quarterback play then be better or worse?

As far me, I’ll easily take the over on seven games. After the October stretch, the Jets have seven games alone that all look very winnable. If things go right at the quarterback position for the Jets, a 9-7 season or even 10-6 season is a real possibility.

Over or under on seven games … which way are you going? Have your say in our poll, posted last night.




49 comments
Dan Lee
Dan Lee

Put me down for my usual prediction. 12-4.

Jeff E. Guy
Jeff E. Guy

Brendan will tell me "you are what your record says you are" and there is some truth to that. But I don't believe the Jets had 8-8 talent last year. I agreed with many who said it was a four-win team. From this perspective, I think Brinson is absolutely correct: Rex Ryan's last campaign was Coach of the Year-worthy. 


Similarly, I'm not convince the Jets have 7-win talent this year. But would I bet the under? No way. I'd bet on Rex Ryan and his staff to beat it. Ten is probably a stretch but I wouldn't be surprised if they went 9-7 and that may be good enough for a wildcard. 

mrblint
mrblint

You would have to be delusional to think last years team was equal to this years in any single aspect, offense, defense, special teams . Or even any single position. Yes even cb. This years team does not have last years cromartie. And he was awful! We also don't have milner starting and learning on the job. Name me a position we have not improved in both depth and quality...? To me it boils down to how much have the other teams on our schedule improved. This deep draft has improved the other teams too...

boomer
boomer

I expect Geno to be much improved now that he has a year in the system and just as importantly a year in the NFL. Yes, he struggled a lot even by rookie standards but he also had a bad and often beat up offensive cast to work with. He also had very little in the way of veteran support to lean on. Vick, assuming he walks the talk, could be a huge help to Geno both with his knowledge of how to be an NFL QB and how to run MM's offense. If he can cut his turnovers in half that would be a huge improvement.


The RB position is better, the WRs are better, the TE is better and the line is going to be better.  Winters was flat out bad most of the season and I think that also contributed to some of the bad play from both Brick and Mangold who both had their worst years last season. RT is a wash as far as I'm concerned.  Howard was just OK and Breno was good enough to play RT for a Super Bowl champion so while he may not be a world beater I don't see him as a step back.


I'm hoping for a big boost on special teams.  Aside from Folk, the rest was pretty mediocre.  We got a lot of young bodies in this draft and kept some key players from last season so I think we see a much better coverage team.  The return game should be better on both punts and KOs, especially if Ford can stay healthy.


The D will be better.  The line is going to be even better this season. Wilk, Snacks and Richardson could be scary good with some very underrated depth guys like Douzable and Ellis. Coples is going to come into his own this year and I'm betting Barnes surprises a lot of people. LBs should be solid if unspectacular.  And I expect a big jump in the play of the Dbacks. Milliner was just starting to figure it out toward the end of last season and if Patterson is healthy is an upgrade over Cro.  I'm pretty excited about Pryor, he could be the glue we've been missing on the backend for years. And if Geno can limit the turnovers and give this unit some rest and longer fields the D could be really special.


I'm going with 10-6 but 11-5 should not be out of reach. Anything less would be a disappointment.

Pablo Bruno
Pablo Bruno

This team will prove to be better then the team in 2010, I expect player who didn't contribute last season to be contributors this year. And the rookies who become starters this season will show promise.  Geno's numbers will be much better, I predict 3,700 yards 35 TDs, 11 Ints for him. Ivory/Johnson/Powell will combine for over 2500 yards 25 TDs. Defense will allow around 10 pts a game. 9-7 isn't far fetched to me and another run for an AFC Championship game.

juunit
juunit

I'm still not totally sure how we managed 8-8 last year with a horrible offense and some horrible pass defense. Gotta assume there will be some improvement in those areas, which means improvement in the win total too.

Bytor
Bytor

Bullish on the team this year with my green glasses. 10 wins is my official prediction. Sorry Hankster but I think we sweep the Phins and Bills and split with the Pats.

We ride into the playoffs with huge momentum where anything can happen.

Patterson and his health will be huge in the early part of the schedule until the young guys get up to speed.

D'Apostraphe Lewis
D'Apostraphe Lewis

Conjecture aside, I haven't been this excited about a Jets squad since 2010. It's going to be very fun to see if Geno has what it takes, and I love the way Idzik has gone about building the roster with tough, chip-on-the-shoulder-type guys. If a few things break their way, I think this team could do some damage. 

williamg1
williamg1

If we can get average play from our QB, WRs and LG, we can win the East. 


nagel100
nagel100

does anyone think the jets can shut down the QB's they are facing this year? the schedule is a killer.  brady twice , manning , rogers, stafford, cutler, rivers, 


with the corners they have they jets will be torched week end and week out.


they may be 1-8 before the bye.  oakland a win then they can easily lose the next 8.  Ryan will be fired.  they did not spend money the had available which makes no sense to me.   or draft a top wide-out or a corner.   they have no pass rush and the best thing you can say is they can stop the run which is not something NFL teams do anymore.  


Ryan is stuck in the nineties.   the game has changed.  they could of signed Revis but let New England do that?  now they have Brady and Revis.  good luck competing with that.



Marvel
Marvel

Nothing like predicting wins/losses........ in May......

 I predict, after the first pre season int by Geno (the one where he pretends the DB is a WR ), panic will spread like wild fire..

 And from the chaos and ashes Boyd will hop over Vicks injured body, unseat Geno and lead us to...

 Greatness!

levi
levi

I think it being the second year for the offense under Marty is a big difference as well. He has a complex system too so there was a lot of growing pains last year and hopefully the players especially Geno will have a better grasp of it this year. If he struggles though let Vick start the first few games.

buckets
buckets

but Michael Vick, Chris Johnson, Eric Decker and Jace Amaro automatically mean this unit’s better than we’ve seen under Rex Ryan. RIGHT?


Not really.  Vick is a backup QB, Cotch/Edwards/Holmes/Keller is MUCH BETTER THAN Kerley/Decker/Amaro/? 

a57se
a57se

The first 7 games of the season are critical for this teams' success and particularly, Geno IMHO.


Oakland should be a win in week one despite Oakland having upgraded several areas of their squad in free agency and the draft. We pretty much manhandled them last season despite the final score being closer then the actual play and unless we come out flat, should take care of business. IF we don't, I could see a lot of anger being expressed on this Blog the morning of Sept. 8th.......

The next three games are almost like playing the same opponent three straight times......all three teams can score and all three teams had trouble stopping teams from scoring......they are the opposite of the 2013 Jet team though the Jets defense actually gave up more points than the Detroit Lions..........387 to 376.......our defense, especially our secondary, will be tested early and often against these teams and it will be up to the Offense to outpace the other teams O's......

Detroit was 6th vs. the run in 2013 and look to be just as tough this year while GB and Chicago were at the bottom of the league. The Jets really need to take advantage of the Packers and Bears troubles in the running game as their offenses were more prolific then the Lions. The Lions game may come down to how well Geno plays......these three teams were 7-5 combined vs. the AFC North last year with Detroit winning all FOUR games. The Jets were 1-3 vs. the same teams.......

The next three games everyone has been focusing on as the toughest part of the Jets schedule and rightly so as they face three playoff teams from last season with two road games including a Thursday Night affair in NE. 

A 3-4 start would probably be the worst start that would still be considered a success given the teams we are playing while only coming up with two wins would probably cost someone their starting position depending on how the games were lost. 

This is the key to the Jets season and if we come out of this with 2 or less wins, I doubt we will get to 7 for the season. 3 or more wins up front and an over with playoff potential is there.

Joe Brennan
Joe Brennan

Assuming this team can stay healthy - I have a hard time believing this team is overall worse than last years 8-8 team.  I know corner is weak, but Cro was SO BAD last year that it's hard to believe they won't get a better performance out of that spot.  Plus if anyone can make lemonade out of lemons on defense, it's going to be Rex Ryan.  9-7 is this teams floor, let's go to the layoffs.

marcus81
marcus81

@Jeff E. Guy  with the talent they are building, they should be a play off team this year, 10-6 guarantees a WC, some 9-7 teams where left out last year, again I reiterate the O line has to play well and give the offense 2 to 3 seconds at least to execute

Pat d
Pat d

I agree last years team isn't equal to this years team. But that's not really saying much. This years schedule is tougher than last years. For me it is a wash. 7 to 9 wins.

Pat d
Pat d

I don't see how the Jets will keep teams to 10 points without a pass rusher.

GhostofBrowningNagle
GhostofBrowningNagle

@juunit luck, pretty much.


i think our expected wins based on points scored and allowed was between 5 and 6. 

Hazard2012
Hazard2012

@williamg1


Average QB play usually doesn't win divisions, especially when you play in divisions that have a HOF QB, HC and now CB who've just loaded for bear and who know how to score points, take your best weapons away and win close games.  


I could care less about winning the East this year.  I have no doubt whatsoever that we could beat Brady in Foxboro in the postseason...but lets walk before we run and get to the playoffs, first.     

Hazard2012
Hazard2012

@nagel100


Why so negative? 


The schedule is tough, but I think Idzik, Rex and MM are building a team tougher-still.   The secondary should be markedly better with Milliner picking up where he left off, Patterson, McDougle, and especially Pryor.   


The front line can only get better.  You can't run against it, and heaven help you if the improved secondary gives it another second or two to pressure the QB.   I'm on record that Mo, Boss Hogg and QC will all have double-digit sacks this year, so QB's will spend a lot of their time running for their lives and getting pounded into the turf.  That's doubly-true of immobile QB's like Manning and Brady.  


Think not of what they can do to us, my friend, but what we will do to them!


And low and behold...we might actually have an Offense, again, with multiple weapons and multiple people who can really run with and catch the ball.   Hallelujah!   


How does that translate into 1-8 and Rex getting fired?    

williamg1
williamg1

@nagel100 This is the deepest group of corners the Jets have had since Rex has been here. But, as of now, none are stars. Milliner will end up being one, though. 

High$ocietyJet
High$ocietyJet

Depending on What Hill does I would call that a wash and our current rb and te group have the edge

Bent
Bent moderator

@buckets Vick is a backup QB, but you're comparing him with Sanchez, so....

Hazard2012
Hazard2012

@a57se


Playing GB at Lambeau in week 2 will be an early gauge in how this team is coming together.   Can the front line apply more pressure on the QB?  Will the secondary tighten up it's act?   What kind of O will MM come up with, and will the pieces gel early enough in the season to win some games?   


You're right about playing the NFC North three weeks in succession, but I actually think that will help the Jets settle-into their more physical and versatile style of play on both sides of ball...basically the same game-plan thee weeks running.  


That should serve them well as they head into the toughest part of their schedule. All eyes will be on how they fare against Den and NE four days apart in mid-Oct., but the road game in SD could get ugly early if the Jets are looking ahead.   


So yeah, 3-4 is probably the worst 'acceptable' start, but I actually think we can win four of these games and, with any luck,  six before the bye.         

Zartan
Zartan

Other teams have improved and the schedule is a bit tougher.

I have the stench of last seasons offense stuck in my head, anywhere from 6-10 wins. This is the Jet way.

Hazard2012
Hazard2012

@Pat d


Even with a pass rush we're not holding teams to ten points.   What'd we allow last year --- 24+ per?   


Secondary should be better, and so should the pass rush, and teams can't run against our D, period, but no way our D is going to be THAT much better than it was last year.     


Our ability to win more games will likely hinge on the O's ability to score more than the 18 pts per it did last year and not undermine the D with TO's.  


That's the biggest unknown for this team, and it might be a while before they show anyone what they're capable of.           

Bent
Bent moderator

@Pat d We have two players who had double digit sacks last season (despite teams constantly getting rid of the ball early to avoid pressure) and another who had double digit sacks a couple of years ago with the Chargers.  None of these three players are Quinton Coples or Sheldon Richardson, both of whom are expected to be more productive in the pass rush this year.  You really think we have no pass rusher?


I agree only 10 points per game is overly optimstic, but I can't see the reason they fall short of that being a lack of a pass rush.

williamg1
williamg1

@Hazard2012 @williamg1 Average play from those positions would win this division (especially with our defense). 

I definitely care about winning the division this year. After going 8-8 with a rookie Qb, there isn't any reason we shouldn't compete for it. 

levi
levi

@Hanknaples  They were off season champions last year too. Just goes to show you how quickly a team can fall apart without good coaching and leadership.

a57se
a57se

@Bent @buckets 

Does it really matter how good your Back-up QB is if your starter stays healthy?

a57se
a57se

@Hazard2012 @a57se 

6-1 over this stretch would be absolutely amazing........I'll sign up for that...:)

Pat d
Pat d

The Jets have a good defense but they do not have a dominate pass rusher.

boomer
boomer

@Hanknaples Maybe they can sign Richie Incognito.


Just kidding.  What kind of screwed up organization would sign that head case?


Bent
Bent moderator

@Hanknaples That's a pretty unique situation and a nice gesture by the Seahawks, but I don't think you could say whether any other team would or wouldn't do the same thing.


The Jets actually have paid some people when they didn't need to in the past and have restructured deals to help Cromartie get more of his money upfront when he had financial issues and to prevent suspended players from losing too much money.  They've also retained guys they could easily have cut, allowing guarantees to crystallize.


The only examples where they didn't pay a guy who they might otherwise have made an exception for were Kevin Basped and Isaako Aaitui, each of whom had agreed to an injury waiver and then got injured.


I don't think you can use something nice that a team did to bash another team for not having done the same thing.

Bent
Bent moderator

@Hanknaples @Bent We don't have Kool Aid in the UK so I can only go on what I've learned from you guys, which leads me to assume that Kool Aid must be Teal-colored.

williamg1
williamg1

@Hanknaples @levi Hank's talking about the Dolphins (as usual). 


No surprise Hank would attach himself with a scuumbag organization like the Fins. 

Bent
Bent moderator

@a57se @Bent @buckets Nope.  But Sanchez was injured several times and it affected his play, so if there had been a better reserve option than Clemens, Brunell, Tebow or McElroy maybe they'd have had a chance to rest/replace him.


Or, in fact, just if the starter was to underperform.