Quote: Go with what you know

“You know my prediction, I think we’re gonna take another D-lineman.  That would be funny. I told (GM John) Idzik, if that happens, they’d run us both out of town.”

– Rex Ryan on Jets first draft pick, via NYDN




106 comments
borisjets
borisjets

If Bortles is there at 18, should we take him?

tw22
tw22

And they want to fire this guy? He is the best part of this franchise.

blackwood1
blackwood1

Lol gota love Rex!! He knows the loons are freaking out & he is enjoying every min of it.

_BPP_
_BPP_

Honestly wpuld not mind Dom Easley at 49.

Mo played an absurd number of snaps last year so some depth beyond Dooz is not a bad idea.

marcus81
marcus81

at least Rex understands the situation

Marvel
Marvel

Joke or not.... it's still true


I Could live with a CB because even though I don't see it a a huge need, it's still a need.


As "deep " as this draft is at WR once u get past round 2 our choices dwindle much faster than nearly any other position of need. ESPECIALLY if you want a dynamic pass catcher and not a possession guy (Landry, who I like  ) or a project (Bryant )


This is not a bpa vs need post, just an observation.


tw22
tw22

@marcus81 The biggest need is offensive playmakers, I would prefer a d-lineman over a cornerback. A lineman that can add to an already elite pass ruhing defense brings instant effect. Cornerbacks are often made in this league, not drafted. We are spoiled by guys Revis and Patrick Peterson, they rarely come out of the box like that. If they can get their hands on a top tier wideout/playmaker, that's the pick.

marcus81
marcus81

@Marvel the draft is crapshoot, Kerley is a 5th rounder and Hill was a 2nd rounder, and Kerley is our best receiver with Decker on the team now we'll see, but 1st rounders are usually ready to start right away, which is the main difference with players drafted later, you get to know real quick if your 1st rounder is a bust too

Brendan
Brendan

@Marvel  Doesn't the fact that this is being called one of the deepest WR drafts ever go against your idea that after round 2 the "choices dwindle much faster than nearly any other position?" 

jaym
jaym

FIRE REX!!!

marcus81
marcus81

@tw22 @marcus81 if the Jets would have signed Golden Tate, Jets could draft a CB and TE with the first picks, and use the rest of the draft for players that are needed and could be developed

a57se
a57se

@Brendan @Marvel 

The 1983 draft is considered the best QB draft ever but none of the QB's drafted after the first round amounted to anything.

The WR class is deep but 10 to 12 WR's could easily be off the board by the time we get to our 2nd round pick........ that would leave slim pickings as in most drafts and a low percentage of finding  starter.

a57se
a57se

@Brian Serviss @a57se

Yes I have since the early 1970's.....I actually posted the latest article on it a few days ago but the people who use the stuff don't want to hear the truth.

DrJonathanReefer
DrJonathanReefer

@Brendan @a57se  


LMAO, and he denied it hahahah. Goddamn, i knew it. He denied saying that he will take the opposite side of whats popular just because we need to debate, as with many other things.

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se Lol. You can characterize it however you want, you told people (including black people) that racism is dead in this country. You can try to act like I'm wrong, but multiple people remember it and it was as insane a thing to say then as it is now. 

a57se
a57se

@Brendan @a57se 

Well that is not how I would characterize the conversation but I am sure you will argue me to the death about it so that will be the extent of my comments on it.

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se I'm mocking you, because you had the audacity to argue a while back that racism is dead in this country. 

a57se
a57se

@DrJonathanReefer  

Coming from someone who calls themself Dr.....Reefer.......Haha...it is drug induced psychobabble!

levi
levi

GET OFF MY LAWN YOU DAMN KIDS!!!!!

DrJonathanReefer
DrJonathanReefer

@Brendan @DrJonathanReefer  


pyschobabble!! No such thing as social disorders!!! modern science is wrong! Because  I'm old and said so!!!


#under50don'tknowanything

DrJonathanReefer
DrJonathanReefer

@a57se @Brendan  


you are pretty f'n stupid though, so even if he said it without it being outright. you pretty much sum it up yourself.

DrJonathanReefer
DrJonathanReefer

@Brendan  


same thing he did with me yesterday. Gets salty then blame everyone but himself.


NPD.. its a serious social disorder. he def has it.

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se Lol. 


Marvel posted something, I posted a reply that I felt was fair and would spark a bit of discussion. You asked me if I had seen draft metrics (which I had) and I replied by asking some pointed questions about the issue with using those metrics for this discussion. You replied by posting the metrics that you just described, I addressed a comment in your second post (doubling down on the metrics point) where you said "based on this..." you would draft X and Y. How else is one to read that comment, 57? 


Then you immediately make a left turn and go into Salty Town and start in with the petty stuff. At no point before your comment about trivializing opinions or whatever had I actually done that. Notice how Marvel and I kept a respectful discussion going the entire time? That should help show you that it isn't me causing the issue, but you'll ignore that fact, as is your MO. 

a57se
a57se

@Brendan @a57se 

You argue over the stupidest little things that are really NON points just to have something to do.....

Do you really think I came to that conclusion solely on the basis of Draft metrics?

You are basically calling me stupid without having the cohones to do it outright by saying such a thing.

This is why we do not get along...you are extremely disrespectful and so I respond in kind.

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se It's truly impressive the way you never stop the argument or admit fault, you just move the disagreement every time you hit a road block. 

a57se
a57se

@Brendan @a57se 

Yeah, I exist in the vacuum of this thread and have never made any other comments on the draft.

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se


"Based on this I'd take a WR at 18 and trade back up to the top 46 and take a CB......."


Yeah, how in the world could I have gotten the impression you over-value draft metrics. 

a57se
a57se

@brendan @a57se  

 I pray to all that is good in this world that Idzik is not going to pick his draft board based on draft metrics compiled from previous drafts.

Here you act like I am actually suggesting that, which is just plain stupid.

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se Are you kidding me? You half-quoted the line. 


"I'm not even totally disagreeing with Marvel, I just think the "WR or bust" mentality can be dangerous." 


Go find someone else's leg to hump, 57. 

a57se
a57se

@Brendan @a57se  

  I just think the "WR or bust" mentality can be dangerous

Who was this meant for in your response to me?

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se Sure, as soon as you show me where I said you did. 

a57se
a57se

@Brendan @a57se 

OK, then show me where the F%^$ I have EVER said WR or BUST in round one?


Brendan
Brendan

@a57se I didn't twist or distort a single comment here, 57. Stop it. 

a57se
a57se

@Brendan @a57se 

No one is saying wide receiver or bust...to you it isn't anything personal when you twist and distort other peoples' words but to some it is VERY disrespectful. just because your Friends don't take offense and give you the benefit of the doubt doesn't make it right.

I love the scene in Taken where the French guy who runs the prostitute ring pleads with Liam Neeson for his life by saying it wasn't personal,just business and Neeson responds it was personal to me.......

Brendan
Brendan

@Marvel What would be just ideal is a trade back to pick up another 2nd rounder and then we can all get the toys we want and go home happy. 

Marvel
Marvel

@Brendan

 I'm positive in your scenario there will be a nice WR sitting there in round 3 but I want a filthy receiver with big play written all over him.


More comfortable that guy will be there in round 1 or 2.



Would I settle for a Mathews or Landry in the 3rd??  Hek yea... but you better throw me DAT later on to soothe my pain.



Brendan
Brendan

@a57se Oh, fun, it's time for 57 to play the victim. 


I'm not even totally disagreeing with Marvel, I just think the "WR or bust" mentality can be dangerous. He knows it's not personal and we're basically re-hashing a discussion we've had in various forms over and over for the past month. 


But since you're being petulant again...where are the bust %'s? Did they compile those? Does WR still have the highest bust rate for first round selections? 


Yes, I think everyone agrees that the team should take a WR early, but don't act like the #'s make it an obvious decision. 

a57se
a57se

@Brendan @Marvel 

As always, you trivialize everyone elses opinions and ignore anything that contradicts yours......

Brendan
Brendan

@Marvel Haha, or OT's, CB's, OLB's, WR's? Every position can slide, it's on an individual basis. 


As I said, I want a WR early as well, but if they go, for example, R1 - CB, R2 - TE I won't be upset. There are still quite a few good players that can be had in the mid rounds. 

a57se
a57se

@Brendan @a57se 

I am sure this would not be the only factor that anyone would use.......

Marvel
Marvel

@Brendan

 What players are gonna slip?  QBs?  DTs? feel free to play the wait and see game,, it's all part of draft day, but we do need playmakers and while I love idzik, if we don't land a WR in the first to rounds, I will go into round 3 disappointed.

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se I pray to all that is good in this world that Idzik is not going to pick his draft board based on draft metrics compiled from previous drafts. 

a57se
a57se

@Brendan @a57se  

Here is one of their comments on WR's:

 Observations:
• There is virtually no difference in the results of drafting wide receivers between draft selection ranges 1-13 and 14-24
• Despite having one of the lowest percentages of five-year starters with selections 1-13, wide receivers have the third highest number of rookie starters
• There is a large drop-off in the percentage of five-year starters after selection #24 but wide receivers taken with draft selection ranges 25-46 and 47-73 are about the same (<< 50%)
• Selections between 115 and 187 have probably the lowest probability of success across the board  (~ 3%)


There isn't a great difference, I went back and checked, between CB's and WR's but 2nd and 3rd round CB's have done better then the same level WR's.

For example:

WR's taken between 25 and 46 have a 26% chance of being a 5 year starter in the league while CB's taken here have a 55% chance.

WR's taken between 47 and 73 have a 24.5% chance while CB's have a 20.4%

They both drop off to 12% or less after this......

In the top 24 picks, CB's have a higher chance of success as follows:

1-13 CB's 66.7% while WR's are 61.5%

14-24 CB's are 69.6% while WR's are 55%.


Based on this I'd take a WR at 18 and trade back up to the top 46 and take a CB.......



Brendan
Brendan

@Marvel If everyone takes a WR, then the Jets will get someone who slips. It's like people who make this argument ignore the fact that other teams have other needs as well. 


It's a great WR draft (we're told), acting like the team has to take a WR in the 1st round is so narrow-minded and there are a lot of players that are under-the-radar who I think will be just as good as the highly-touted guys in some cases. 


I've already stated numerous times I want a WR early, but if they don't I won't flip out about it or bash Idzik for failing the draft or whatever. 

Marvel
Marvel

@Brendan @Marvel

 you continue to ignore the fact that while the draft is deep at WR the demand is extremely high... which is pretty much my point..




I don't. want the 18th ranked WR


Brendan
Brendan

@Marvel Now you're just being difficult. It's supposedly better than last year and a 4 pick spread isn't enough to disprove what I'm saying. 

Marvel
Marvel

@Brendan  

well it isn't last year.... on top of that we pick at 80.....

Brendan
Brendan

@Marvel Biggest game-breaker from last year's draft came in what round, again? I believe Round 3, Pick #76? 

Marvel
Marvel

@Brendan @a57se 

well 57 has it right, or he gets my point. WR is a hot choice this year, if we wait until round 3 15-17 could be gone by then, so it's not the same as any other position.


ON top of that, I want a game breaker, not just some guy.




Brendan
Brendan

@a57se That's all well and good, but a) the top 100 picks goes well into round 3 (which disagrees with Marvel) and b) that's a metric based on historical drafts, which this draft is said to be well above in terms of talent level. 

a57se
a57se

@Brendan @a57se 

Are you familiar with Draft Metrics? They have done extensive studies of the Draft over the last 15 years or so. Some of their findings are pretty interesting. While they are not the end all be all of draft analysis, their findings can shed some light on this stuff.

From their work, I believe WR's have one of the lowest success rates outside of their premium pick range......their premium is approximately the top 100 picks. CB's seem to do much better as well as OLB's.....

Brendan
Brendan

@a57se And how is that different than any of the other positions the team is looking at?