What does Monday’s draft buzz mean for the Jets?

WR-collage

Brian Bassett, TheJetsBlog.com

There’s a lot of rumors swirling around right now related to Thursday’s NFL Draft. We’ll break down some of the juiciest ones as they pertain to the Jets in this post. 

Rumor: It will be a miracle if LSU WR Odell Beckham, Jr. lasts to the Jets at 18.
Analysis:
There’s a real possibility that there will be six receivers drafted in the first round. It’s something we’ve been saying for some time now. Sammy Watkins and Mike Evans might both be gone in the top five, but certainly in the top ten. OBD is the next best receiver and to think that he — and potentially Brandin Cooks too — could last all the way from the top ten to the 18th pick seems a long shot. ESPN NY’s Rich Cimini re-iterated the notion that ODB won’t make it that long last night.

Rumor: The Jets are looking to trade up to draft a receiver (See more about this on TJB here).
Analysis: If could be the Jets are working out contingencies should the top two or three receivers get snapped up quickly and teams want to get it out there that teams like the Niners, Eagles and Jets are looking to trade up to sweeten whatever package a team in the early teens could get. Ian Rapoport noted that the Jets targets could be “Beckham, Cooks, Lee” in such a scenario. John Idzik seems like a GM who won’t swing a trade to move up, but if he does, would it be for one of those three? What about trading up into the early teens for UNC TE Eric Ebron? Tony Pauline told us on the podcast last week that there might be some “diva” concerns about Ebron. Is he the type that Idzik would trade up for then? What about making a big splash and going all in for a player like Watkins or Evans? Personally, I think the Jets will stay put. Even so, the Jets are wisely setting up contingencies should players fall a little or get run on early. The latter seems more likely than the former.

Rumor: The Eagles are looking to move up too.
Analysis: After running DeSean Jackson out of town on a rail and looking at Riley Cooper and a rehabbing Jeremy Maclin at the top of his depth chart, offensive guru and Eagles coach Chip Kelly might now realize replacing Jackson might be harder than he thought. Kelly will know what he wants in a receiver and he will have no one in place to tell him “no” if he wants to move up. GM Howie Roseman is already doing his homework for Kelly — probing around the middle of the first round for a likely trade partner — and that might make life harder on the Jets if they are looking at moving up into the same range or at the same pick.

Rumor: Eric Ebron won’t make it to the Jets.
Analysis:
 The UNC tight end is one in name; Ebron is essentially a receiver with a massive frame. While he can block, most expect that he will play the increasingly popular “F” receiver role in the NFL, flexing out into the slot or further much as Jimmy Graham does with the Saints. With the focus squarely on pass-catchers in the first round of Thursday’s NFL Draft, it makes sense that adding a player like Eric Ebron can address the need while not necessarily have the two letters that seem to be in such high demand (WR) this week. Unfortunately for the Jets, it sounds as if the Ravens are serious about adding Ebron if he’s still on the board at 17.

Rumor: The Picksburgh Wrench! Steelers might draft FSU WR Kelvin Benjamin at 15!
Analysis: Benjamin has been talked about as a late first round, early second round talent … but Pittsburgh always seems to do things their own way. There’s been A LOT of talk all offseason about the front office in Pittsburgh wanting to get Ben Roethlisberger a big-bodied receiver again this year after letting Mike Wallace walk a year ago. Would they really draft Kelvin Benjamin at 15 as has been suggested? It’s hard to know just what Pittsburgh might do and if it will have any effect on how the rest of the first round plays out, but he aware that this might actually happen.

Rumor: The dreaded failed drug test list is circulating.
Analysis:
 That players would fail drug tests at the Combine, where they know for a certainty that they will be tested is troubling … and stupid. LB Christian Jones, LB Telvin Smith, DL Anthony Johnson and DL Timmy Jernigan all have been reported as failing their drug tests from the Combine. In addition, LSU QB Zach Mettenberger provided a “diluted” sample which many teams take as the same thing as a failed test. Mayock believes him to be a first round talent, but how long with a player like Mettenberger last with the urine sample issue? While the media might now start making the necessary adjustments, this is something that teams would have already changed grades on — would the Jets feel like they have the personnel development staff on hand to handle one of these players if they could be had at a bargain on Day Three?




240 comments
Kal Ripken
Kal Ripken

how often does it happen in the NFL draft where everyone just wonders how a player fell so far in comparison to his pre draft expectations? 

Pat d
Pat d

Attention Marvel and all others that think Cook's only weakness is height.

Cooks will struggle with physical defenders and doesn't have ideal body strength - will be overwhelmed in man coverage.

Looks to avoid contact and would much rather escape out of bounds or go around defenses. Needs to secure the ball through the process to eliminate drops and fumbles.

Lindy's Pro Football Draft Report

Pat d
Pat d

Actually 64% of WRs in round 1 and 2 are misses.

For the entire draft the number is much higher

bob
bob

Espn on TV just said that 64.4% of the receivers pic each year in the draft are a bust..I say Awe no.

Marvel
Marvel

Cooks got his yards off trick plays???


lmaoo..


That's my signal... I'm out



I like About 6 guys at 18....but people are literally making up reasons for Lee/obj being better than Cooks... 

 it's no contest... at all...Cooks is simply better.... at everything lol


Next thread





Pat d
Pat d

Just saw interesting stat on NFL Network

64% of WRs taken in round 1 and 2 are misses.

2nd has higher miss rate but they didn't break it down 1 vs 2

Pat d
Pat d

Prediction of order WRs taken in round 1 of the draft

Watkins

Evans

Lee

Beckham

Benjamin

Cooks

Robinson

Tequila Joe
Tequila Joe

Keep the picks unless you're moving up to get Watkins...He's the only guy worth moving up for.

Marvel
Marvel

Like @Sackdance99 said.... press cover Cooks... whiff... and it's 6 points 

 He will get DBs benched or worse... cut....


he's too fast, shifty, strong etc.. Teams are gonna fear him.


Between the tape, production, skill set.... there really isn't a argument for who the 3rd best WR is and he could easily be more productive than Evans IMO.


WW85
WW85

@Pat d  Marqise Lee: NFL.com

Average size and run strength. Does not break many tackles. Was slowed by nagging injuries, and body is not built to withstand a lot of punishment. Can do a better job securing the ball through traffic -- has shown a tendency to flag the ball. Long-term durability could become an issue.

WW85
WW85

  • Marqise Lee  Bleacher Report:
  • Does a poor job adjusting to deeper throws.
  • Very inconsistent use of his body to position himself between the ball and the defender on contested targets.
  • Gets ahead of himself sometimes and looks downfield before securing the catch, resulting in uncontested drops.
  • According to Greg Peshek, dropped 12.3 percent of his catchable targets.
  • Primarily used on screens, drag routes and short ins and outs.
  • Needs to polish his technique on deeper routes.
  • Struggles to fight off press coverage.
  • Some minor injury concerns due to his slight frame.
  • Suffered a minor knee injury during spring practices in 2013 and re-aggravated the injury during the 2013 season, causing him to miss some time.

Paul Samuels
Paul Samuels

@bob  That's how the draft works. Some players pan out, others don't. And it all depends on how you define success, how player roles come into play, and team philosophy. 

Pat d
Pat d

Cooks will struggle with physical defenders and doesn't have ideal body strength - will be overwhelmed in man coverage.

Looks to avoid contact and would much rather escape out of bounds or go around defenses.

Lindy's Pro Football Draft Report

gbrownn
gbrownn

@Marvel You can't say that he didn't have an abundance of plays calls designed for him to get the ball quickly. They fed him the ball more than anyone in college. I'm not taking away from Cooks the player at all, I think he'll be a new age slot reciever, but the production is a bit skewed to me.  I prefer ODB, just think he's a better player.

Marcus Armstrong
Marcus Armstrong

@Marvel  I really disagree. Think you're overweighting college production (And ignoring the flaws in Cooks' game).

Hazard2012
Hazard2012

@Hanknaples  


Can't argue that...same could probably be said of Mosley...but do you really think the Jets would take either of them over 6-8 other guys if they're also on board when they pick?   


Absolutely love to get either of these guys...but picking either comes with a cost of probably losing another top rated player on your board in a position of more pressing need.    

Pat d
Pat d

Khalil Mack is worth moving up for.

But I don't want the Jets moving up that far.

Pat d
Pat d

That's what happened with Lee not Cooks

jetlife
jetlife

@Marvel  Can the OBJ supporters please give your reasoning as to how he is better than Cooks? Have you legit looked at the stats, and the game film? Looked at the opponents they were torching? 

Pat d
Pat d

I'm familiar with Lee's weaknesses. Not sure what your point is. I have stated several times I would be happy with Lee, Beckham or Cooks at 18. I only posted the quote from the Pro Football Draft Report in response to several here that repeatedly insist that Cooks only weakness is his height.

Pat d
Pat d

You may be right. Just repeating what I heard today on NFL Network

bob
bob

@a57se @bob


Yes they didn't give any context all they said was good luck . scary to think.


Maybe the safe pics are Ebron, Dennard or Martin in the 1st.

Marvel
Marvel

@gbrownn  

he rarely played in the slot... but ok 

 and I'm pretty sure your definition of a trick play is off..

SackDance99
SackDance99

@a57se @MarvelSo, that means Cooks is more suited for the WCO, right?  All those crossing patterns, slants, WR screens, quick outs, etc. are all WCO staples.  Bill Walsh's gift to the NFL was the short passing, possession offense that emphasizes YAC, not the drop back, wait 4 seconds and chuck it offenses that yielded big plays and 53% completions.  I agree that Beckham is perfect for a traditional offense, but Cooks is flat out better for a WCO.

Marvel
Marvel

@a57se

 when DBs are scared to death of your speed, they tend to give you that Cromartie 15 yard cushion..




You're smart, which is why you're angles upset me the most... you know better


Pat d
Pat d

Ramble 914

Can't really argue with that. I think with Lee it will depend on the medical evaluations

Hazard2012
Hazard2012

@Hanknaples  


Continuing the thought...if either Shazier or Mosley slide into the second round---doubtful, but possible---the Jets might look to move up to get them in the early second.   


Or...if they move down in the first and collect an extra pick or two...grab Shazier or Mosley first and then move up in early second to get either a top WR or CB.    Might Lee still be there?  

cosmicwy
cosmicwy

@jetlife @Marvel  i watched ODBjr highlights. i watched cooks highlights. i watched lee highlights.  i loved what i saw from odb.  he didn't seem to have the trick plays for huge gains like cooks had.  he caught EVERYTHING with his hands at the high point of attack.  He returns punts and has a devastating cut.


Do i think cooks is good? absolutely.  do i think lee is good? absolutely.  but they didn't pass my eye test like ODB.  i want him more.  if he's gone, then i want cooks.  i would be happy with lee as well.


there's nothing scientific about my reasoning.  i just watched videos and left with those opinions.

Paul Samuels
Paul Samuels

@SackDance99  I would classify Meacham as a bust. Yes, he has filled a role, but for a 1st round pick, he has failed. He isn't even a three on most teams. 

SackDance99
SackDance99

@bob @a57seI just looked at WRs taken from 2007 to 2011 in the 1st round (too early to judge WRs from the last 2 drafts) and out of 17, 10-11 are pretty good WRs (AJ Green, Julio Jones, Demaryious Thomas, Dez, Crabtree, Maclin, Harvin, Nicks, Megatron and Bowe, with Britt, Meacham and, lately, Ted Ginn having their moments).  I don't know what characterizes a "bust" but 13 of those 17 WRs ended up being productive and that's a 76% success rate.

gbrownn
gbrownn

@Marvel When I see Cooks I see Wes Welker with 4.3 speed. I think if you line him up in the inside off the ball the kid would be untouchable.

Marvel
Marvel

@gbrownn  

the trick play comment didn't come from you.. my bad

Marvel
Marvel

@a57se

 you're opinions are good, and it's cool to think player x will be better than player y,for whatever reason..


But telling Cooks caught 51% of his passes within 5 yards of the LOS is shady and tells half the story.


But I'm past it..




Marcus Armstrong
Marcus Armstrong

@Marvel @Marcus Armstrong  Yes. That's certainly one. Also his open field running/vision is not on the level of Lee or Beckham. Also don't think he plays the ball in the air particularly well. Doesn't really have the frame to box out CBs, etc. There's a lot of stuff there.

SackDance99
SackDance99

@a57se @SackDance99All I did was challenge your opinion, which you admit isn't expert, that college production for WRs is meaningless when scouting their likelihood of success in the NFL.  I think that's a ridiculous claim.  Is college production meaningless for other positions, too.?  How about QB or RB?

Then, you tacitly compare Jordan White's production, made at Western Michigan University, which is in the non-BCS, FBS Mid-American Conference, to Cooks, who played at Oregon State in the Pac-12.  Thus, you made a statement and a false comparison.

SackDance99
SackDance99

@a57se @SackDance99What BS!  You made a statement without any factual basis and now you're retreating and name-calling.  All too typical.

SackDance99
SackDance99

@a57se @SackDance99No, you're the one that said: "I believe scouting has come a long way since the 80s....."  What did you mean?  You're Mr. Draft and break down tons of film.  You should know, Professor.

SackDance99
SackDance99

@a57se @SackDance99Tell me how scouting has changed?  What do scouts analyze about WRs today that they didn't look at in 1984?  Information technology has changed, passing offenses have changed as have defenses, but what has changed in player evaluation?

SackDance99
SackDance99

@a57se @SackDance99So, that means scouts don't look at production at all?  That kind of scouting gets you Stephen Hill in the 2nd round.

SackDance99
SackDance99

@a57se @SackDance99Yet, Jerry Rice set nearly all the NCAA records back in the 80s.  You can put the production in context and discount it, but ignoring it would be foolhardy.

Marvel
Marvel

@a57se

 referencing Bradysucks...


Not reaching at all....smh


SackDance99
SackDance99

@a57se @cosmicwyHow about:


Larry Fitzgerald: 92 receptions for 1672 yards and 22 TDs


Calvin Johnson: 76 receptions for 1202 yards and 15 TDs


Michael Crabtree: 134 receptions for 1962 yards and 22 TDs


Jordy Nelson: 122 receptions for 1606 yards and 11 TDs.


Plus Justin Blackmon, who is undoubtedly a major talent with a pea brain, had 2 years or ridiculous production at OK St., with over 110 receptions and 1500 yards.


College production is meaningful, just not everything.

jetlife
jetlife

@a57se @cosmicwy  If Cooks is a result of the system he was playing in, then Beckham was a result of the competition(see above comment).  Also, Cooks was double teamed nearly every single play.  Beckham had a better possession WR across from him. 

SackDance99
SackDance99

@cosmicwy @jetlife@MarvelBy my eye test, Beckham was the least impressive of the 3.  He had a very unchallenging route tree at LSU and greatly benefited by having Mettenberger throw it deep and Zach has a plus arm.  Lee's 2012 season was a clinic for a #1 WR in a WCO.  Cooks was the #1 WR, double-teamed, but always created space and made the catches.  He ran every pattern in the book.  I'm not saying that Beckham isn't good, it's just he wasn't as tested as much as Lee or Cooks and Beckham does have the best measurables.  My rank is Cooks, Lee then Beckham based on production and scheme fit (EDIT).

jetlife
jetlife

"About 36% of Beckham's rec yds & 78% of his TDs came vs UAB, Kent State & Furman. Other 10 games he was 43 rec, 736 yd & 2 all purpose TDs."


I feel like nothing else has to be said. He wasn't even the leading WR on his team.