Audible: Over or under?

Latest Vegas odds have set the over/under for the Jets at seven wins for the 2014 season.

Neil Greenberg of the Washington Post makes a case that we should expect the Jets to go under in this article. He suggests that the Jets have a tough schedule and that they were “lucky” to win as many games as they did last year because they had a poor overall points differential and fared well in close games.

That paints a grisly picture for any Jets fan riding a wave of optimism into next week’s offseason workouts. However, is the analysis flawed? As someone in the comments points out, using past performance to determine how a team will perform is somewhat suspect, not least because it fails to account for any upgrades the team might have made since last year. You could also call into question the validity of the points differential metric and could even make the argument that their ability to win close games is something that makes it less likely they’ll fall short of expectations.

What do you think? Are the Jets going to exceed expectations in 2014 or will they flatter to deceive? Alternatively, does Vegas have it about right? Respond to the poll below, then expound upon your reasoning and discuss what they key factors will be in the comments.




38 comments
UncleJoesJetFarm
UncleJoesJetFarm

I am going with the over, but barely. My reasoning is that while the team is moving in the right direction, it will take some time to evolve. The team is real young with many new players and geling will be an issue. Also we have to two key areas with major questions, the oline and secondary. We also have to face the fact whether one wants to acknowledge it or not, that the qb situation is not  settled and has the possibility to be a major distraction. Also, we were lucky with the injury bug last season as no top tier started was lost for any amount of significant games.


I think we have enough talent to get 8, possibly 9 wins, but until we have our QB of the future solidified, and those major holes plugged, we will not be a true contender, but we will play tough and make it interesting and moving in the right direction is the most important. At this point I am saying 8 wins, but optimistic on the future

marcus81
marcus81

said it before, the O line has to play well or better than last year, that will be the key to the season, most of the talent is the defensive side of the ball so that's taken care off

bob
bob

Waaaait Doooh minute. Dats right !     I like dat one..

McGeorge
McGeorge

The Jets have a tougher schedule* and got some breaks last year, on the other hand they did address key weaknesses which should help a lot.  If Dee Milliner plays ok, and Winters plays better than awful they can win 8 games.  I don't see them going 9-7.  That would require Geno to improve quite a bit, possible, but not counting on it.


Put me down for 7-9. (+/- 1)


The Pats and Bills will be better too.

xplr
xplr

I think the over is a great bet. First of all, you had Geno Smith thrown to the wolves with no receiving help. Holmes barely played and we had one of the least productive tight ends in the NFL. We also had a really poor secondary. We have upgraded our receiving core tremendously with Decker, Ford, Amaro and the other draft picks. We are probably upgraded in the secondary. We have a capable backup QB in Vick. Yes, the schedule might be tougher, but you never really know how good any of our opponents will actually be. I think 9-10 wins is very possible.

bob
bob

Advantage Jets is the time zone's in which we play other teams. Last year the Jets where tough to beat at home for some reason. The offensive line needs to pass protect better against better defenses (left side) D-Brick ,Winters! and Mangold). Lets hope Winters can stand up on his own.


Getting Pryor is huge for the defense. Adding to the talent, solidifying,

the backfield. ( much better unit now) also the CBs have big time help this year.

A Allen and J Bush are lets say at the very least are no longer considered to be rookies.


10 wins is my best guess ..Again where better at defense and that will keep the Jets in close games.

Div Bhansali
Div Bhansali

>> You could also call into question the validity of the points differential metric and could even make the argument that their ability to win close games is something that makes it less likely they’ll fall short of expectations.

Except that typically, that "ability" to win close games doesn't hold from year to year in the NFL. Football Outsiders looked at this a while back and found the vast majority of teams don't stay positive in close games from year to year. There are some exceptions, but usually point differential is a better indicator for the following year than what you did in close games. And when you go 3-7 in games decided by double digits, I wouldn't ignore that either.


Now, I really like what we've done this offseason, and I think our depth is MUCH better than last year. So I'm putting us at 8-8 this year, figuring that we could be a better team than 2013 and still end up with about the same record.

buckets
buckets

7 wins sounds about right.  They were pretty fortunate last season, but then again, I said 5 or 6 wins last August...so maybe my prediction is really 9 or 10 wins.


Really it all boils down to how bad the quarterback (Vick or Geno) will be.  Niether is a player I really believe in, so will either be bad enough to hold the rest of the team back? 

mrblint
mrblint

It's a flawed analysis. The jets lost big in several games due to their incredibly inept offense...and mediocre secondary. The games they lost featured a lot of salas and sudfeld due to their already thin receiver corp being banged up. Cromartie was just plain terrible...and Milner was woefully unprepared due to injury and holdout and we got weak play from the safeties. Last year the schedule was pronounced as tough early and in the middle and easy later. But we basically won every other game ...So what does this mean..it mean in today's nfl you really can't predict based upon last years records. Injuries can completely turn the difficulty of a schedule upside down. The true predictor of success is the quality and depth of a team both in terms of players and coaching. So how do the jets fare in that regard? Defense ...we lost chromartie. He was awful.. So we gained Patterson...if healthy he will be better than cro was last year. We gained some promising rookie CBs and a very promising safety. Plus Milner is no longer clueless. We got some depth at LB from rookies plus a healthy Barnes. We have more experience at DL. The net is undeniably positive. On offense we got a slew of speedy receivers and a good tight end prospect...plus a very good free agent. We got more speed in the backfield where we already had a strong running game. We picked up a versatile O-line prospect and winters has another year of experience. Finally we picked up a proven QB...Again...how can this not be a net gain? Finally our special teams was pronounced slow and talent poor last year by Westy and he was right. Thru the draft we picked up a ton of speed and special teams talent...Again... Net gain. Therefor logic would lead to conclude that the jets will be better next year... But as usual, you have to play the games to find out.

OB_Mike
OB_Mike

@Brian_Bassett I think the Jets blow part 7 wins and 10 isn't out of the question. Better on both sides of ball imho and especially off.

juunit
juunit

Somewheeeeeere over the win mark, way up high. Thanks to the defense that Rex dreamed up, once in a lullaby.

Pablo Bruno
Pablo Bruno

ah heck, let's just end the season now, and draft Jameis Winston in 2015 to make the pundits happy.  There's no way we go under 6.5 wins, Rex finds ways to win with less talent then we have, notice last season, and how he got to the AFC title games, those teams weren't superbowl caliber teams exactly. With the talent this team has, and I believe it's the most talented team put together since Rex got here, We should at least win 9 games. And I only say 9 because of the tough schedule.  If I'm right, I expect this team to go to another AFC championship game, because by that time, teams will not want to play a bruising team like the Jets, defense will play relentless, running game will be brutal on defenses, and the receivers we have now have that same mentality of playing tough football.

Lloyd Jay Reife
Lloyd Jay Reife

The Jets are so hated, that blind emotions dominate these haters.

Jets 10-6!

jdb4
jdb4

I won $100 bucks on this same stupid bet last year.  I'd take it again this year in a heartbeat.

levi
levi

Im going with over but Vegas usually knows what they are doing.

harvlis
harvlis

@marcus81  I agree with you.  They added a top RB & WR, they drafted one of the top TE's and a number of solid WR's, I like the defensive draft picks, and Michael Vick is a quality QB.  Our defense under Rex will be there, as usual.  Therefore, the O Line is going to determine our year.  I still think that Idzik should have done more to enhance the line.  Dozier looks like a nice project but, that might take years.  If the O Line plays well, the sky's the limit (in our division).

bob
bob

I'm having a lot of fun rooting for the Miami Heat.  watch dis one! Lets go Heat.. how bout dat one!

Bent
Bent moderator

@Floyd Toucanet So the 32 teams will be a combined 256-256?  Yeah, I'd go with that.

Bent
Bent moderator

@bob We should get Winters a kick stand so he can stand up on his own.

Bent
Bent moderator

@Div Bhansali


Well, Football Outsiders think that EVERYTHING regresses to the mean and most things do, so they're usually right.  (Okay, that's a crass over-simplification but there is still some truth to it).  However, what if that stat in this case means that the Jets happen to be equipped to win tight games...and maybe at the same time, ill-equipped to keep a game close once they fall behind?


What if the team has a good chance of winning as long as the game stays close ... and having upgraded we can expect more games to stay close?


Maybe they're not in the vast majority because they've been set up differently to a lot of teams - with a consistently strong defense and an inconsistent offense.


Now, I'm not definitely saying this is true, but all it says in the original post is that you could make the argument...which I just did.

juunit
juunit

@Pablo Bruno 

Jameis Winston is a people stealing crab rapist. The pundits would hate him. 

Ron Alexander
Ron Alexander

@Hanknaples A+ draft? Your kidding right? One or two starters out of 12 picks and you think this is an A+ draft. I dont know what your smoking but It'l take a lot of tokes to make me think this is more than a C+ draft. Now, time may prove me wrong and I'm more than fine with that but other than Pryor and Amaro I see a Guard that should eventually develop into a starter,a corner that most sites had rated much lower than the 3rd round and a couple of WR's who may or may not pan out? As for the rest???? I have my doubt's...

buckets
buckets

@Bent @bob What if Winters is actually decent this year? 
....Sorry.  I got jokes...

Div Bhansali
Div Bhansali

@Bent @Div Bhansali I enjoyed you responding to FO's over-simplification with your own over-over-simplification. :)

But in all seriousness, you very well might be right that the Jets' style makes them better-suited to close games. Over the past 4 seasons, their winning percentage in close games is better than their overall win %. So if that stays the case, we just need to prevent blowouts - most of which we lose - and keep more games close. With better depth, that should be doable.

jdb4
jdb4

@Ron Alexander @Hanknaples 

http://www.nfl.com/player/trevorreilly/2543676/draft

I don't know.  Most team had McDougle in the third.  Just because the online draft community hadn' heard of him or rated him low doesn't mean sh** to me.

This video of Reilly shocked me.  Had never heard of him.   1:40 mark -- "with a great feel for the game, Trevor Reilly has the potential to make an immediate impact and he could be selected in the second or third round."

JCuratola3
JCuratola3

Who says every pick is supposed to be a starter?

Bent
Bent moderator

@Ron Alexander @Hanknaples


Hank is being facetious, Ron.   He's implying that the experts don't know what they're talking about when they praise the Jets and that Rex is overrating our talent.

Bent
Bent moderator

@Hanknaples Why wouldn't he?  Was Vegas right last season or were those who thought the Jets would do better than everyone was saying right?

__fense
__fense

@Bent @Hanknaples The Vegas line isn't trying to accurately predict the win total, it's trying to predict what people think the win number will be. They don't care who wins, as long as there's about as many losers as there are winners.