Latest Vegas odds have set the over/under for the Jets at seven wins for the 2014 season.
Neil Greenberg of the Washington Post makes a case that we should expect the Jets to go under in this article. He suggests that the Jets have a tough schedule and that they were “lucky” to win as many games as they did last year because they had a poor overall points differential and fared well in close games.
That paints a grisly picture for any Jets fan riding a wave of optimism into next week’s offseason workouts. However, is the analysis flawed? As someone in the comments points out, using past performance to determine how a team will perform is somewhat suspect, not least because it fails to account for any upgrades the team might have made since last year. You could also call into question the validity of the points differential metric and could even make the argument that their ability to win close games is something that makes it less likely they’ll fall short of expectations.
What do you think? Are the Jets going to exceed expectations in 2014 or will they flatter to deceive? Alternatively, does Vegas have it about right? Respond to the poll below, then expound upon your reasoning and discuss what they key factors will be in the comments.