Daily Links: Bang for your buck

  • Which Jets provided the best value for money? [PFF]
  • Brick blogs about the draft process [Jets Official Site]
  • Sanchez: What are the options? [NJ]
  • Brett Favre looks like “Santa on steroids” [Terez Owens]
  • NFL to experiment with moving line of scrimmage for PATs to the 25? [NFL.com]
  • Real Football Services’ post-combine analysis [Jets Official Site]



90 comments
jma020
jma020

Dammit, I'm getting addicted to the fan speak mock.
Just drafted:
1.Mike Evans WR
2. Davante Adams WR
3. Troy Niklos TE
3. Ahmad Dixon S
4. Charles Sims RB
5. John Halapio G

lagoo
lagoo

So honestly we should sign everson griffen or mike Neal boom pass rush addressed.

Sign louis Delmas mike Mitchell or Stevie brown boom deep safety addressed

Sign Emmanuel sanders or jason avant wr addressed

Sign Scott chandler te depth added

Sign jacoby for or Devon Hester to help out the return game

Inquire about Donald brown or Kari's Stephens howling if they want to much draft a guy

Get a decent rg

thehelmet
thehelmet

Does the news that Brandon Browner was reinstated change things for the Jets? I would think he could be a target given that he's good and the Idzik connection.  


Also I love that the NFL seems to be loosening its policy regarding marijuana.  Basically just saying, "Yeah, you're supposed to be out a whole year, but it was just a little pot..."

Disgruntled Jets Fan
Disgruntled Jets Fan

Bent's comment about spotting the two point conversion if they move the PAT back brings up an interesting point.  I'd imagine the spot has to be the same for PAT or two point conversion, unless you make it impossible for a team to fake, and that would really suck, IMO.


So let's say the move the spot for either is 25 yards.  Now, currently, the two point conversion has almost a 50% success rate, and PATs are basically automatic.  This provides a nice equivalence for the expected value, just about 1 point in either case - meaning from a statistics perspective, either strategy works equally well over a large sample.  But if the distance is now 25 yards, that equivalence is completely broken.  The success rate for FGs at that distance is about 81% - so the expected value for a PAT would be 0.81.  But the one-play TD rate from the 25 is very low - http://www.advancednflstats.com/2012/08/1-play-touchdown-probability.html - less that 5% (the 4th down graph is the most direct comparison, as it's also a do-or-die situation, but not the same as there's also the ability to just get a first down).  So let's be generous and say that the 25-yard 2 point conversion would have a success rate of 10%.  Then the expected value would only be 0.2.  To re-balance the equation, you'd have to revalue the "N"-point conversion.  If you take the about 0.8 PAT expected value and divide it by the 0.1 "N"-point conversion success rate, you get 8.  So they'd have to make N=8 (!!!!) to again make the choice between the PAT and going for the N point conversion an interesting choice.


Or in short, moving the PAT back is a dumb idea.

greggreen
greggreen

Am i the only one getting worried that howard hasnt signed yet?

a57se
a57se

@Bent  

I like how Williamson basically says the Cinidiot doesn't have a clue!

Brendan
Brendan

@Bent  What's funny is in '12 he was better run blocking and in '13 he was better pass blocking. So they're both wrong. 

Brendan
Brendan

@jma020  Oh god. I'd actually lose my mind if those first three picks happened, and I'm Mr. Defense. 

a57se
a57se

@jma020  

It can be a fun diversion if you are bored.

Disgruntled Jets Fan
Disgruntled Jets Fan

@thehelmet  Aren't drug suspensions usually 4 games?


EDIT: I mean for first violations.

Brendan
Brendan

@greggreen  I'm starting to get nervous, but there's still time. It's kind of refreshing knowing there are absolutely conversations taking place and we're getting nothing leaked out of them as fans. To me, that hopefully indicates the two sides want to get a deal done. 

Bent
Bent moderator

@Brendan @greggreen  No reason to get nervous yet, but obviously it's not done until it's done.


Stay tuned...

Bytor
Bytor

@Brendan @Bytor  Yeah as I was typing option 1+2 I started thinking Browner would be the better option. Bent mentioned below we have a player option on DMill as well. 


Makes sense to economize a bit if we're serious about locking up the front guys long term starting next year.


If his plate is cleared, makes even more sense.

Bent
Bent moderator

@Brendan @Bent  I kinda like that they don't.  When dummies like you forget about it, someone corrects you 30 seconds later, problem solved.  I like seeing the "experts" tie themselves up in knots haha.


Stuff like escalators and cap carryover don't really feature in their base numbers, presumably because that makes it easier to cross reference to the official databases and ensure it reconciles perfectly.


Come for the root numbers, stay for the in-depth analysis.

Brendan
Brendan

@Bent Oops. OTC should put a little note or something on the player page so dummies like me stop forgetting about that. 

Bent
Bent moderator

@Brendan @Bytor  Fifth year option for Milliner too, don't forget B.

Bent
Bent moderator

@Bytor  Isn't his reinstatement confirmation that the suspension he served this year clears his slate?


He'll be in the mix, probably with a a contract that protects against future suspensions.

Brendan
Brendan

@Bytor Milliner's deal runs through 2016, so three years remaining. If you sign Verner/Shields, it's probably to a 4-5 year deal, so it's very possible in the offseason before 2017 you're looking at cutting the older guy to pay Milliner. 


When you lay it out like that, I almost prefer the shorter deal with Browner, if that's what they can get him to sign. 

Bent
Bent moderator

@Brendan @Bent  Yeah, that's something that occurred to me too.  Milliner is potentially being groomed to the "the Revis" of this defense.  Browner would make a heck of a Lito Sheppard.


Edited to add: Before someone picks me up on it, I'm not anointing Dee as the next Revis, I'm talking specifically in terms of his role (ie shadowing the other team's number one).

Bytor
Bytor

@Brendan @Bent  

1. DMill+Verner/Shields=long term solution at decent total APY. When both deals are up you pay DMill or another guy big and hopefully develop another guy to fill the cheaper spot.


2. DMill+Browner=shorter term solution at great APY. You'd have to address in a few years.


I'm with ya on fa starting. This isn't healthy as I'm losing sleep. Damn this team! 

Bytor
Bytor

@Bent @Brendan  Geez, he looks like a safety! It might be worth it just to sick him on Megatron and Gronk this year.


What do you think the interest, cost, and years investment would be for him?


Oh, and what will his suspension be to start the season?

Brendan
Brendan

@Bent I thought of it because it came up yesterday with Verner. 


I think one thing I'm not weighing as heavily as I should is Milliner. He did the "shadow #1" detail the final month and looked really good doing it. What are the odds Rex wants to start this season with that same gameplan? Does that mean you target a guy like Browner who will be cheaper than a guy like Verner or Shields? Or do you go to the tier below entirely? If the team thinks they're on the verge of a true #1 CB on a rookie deal, do they even break the bank for a top level guy? Or do they focus on solid role players and the draft? 


I NEED FA TO START. I'm going start giving myself panic attacks thinking these things through so much. 

Bent
Bent moderator

@Brendan @Bent  Not really considered it.  They probably compliment each other pretty well.  Yes, he has been just RCB, good point.

Brendan
Brendan

@Bent Umm, yeah, probably. But didn't he play strictly RCB? Do you think he could flip with Milliner? 

Brendan
Brendan

@Bent Oh, he's definitely good, but I wouldn't say he's "great" or elite. 

Disgruntled Jets Fan
Disgruntled Jets Fan

@thehelmet @Disgruntled Jets Fan  Ah, it's because he had a previous violation.  And they bizarrely considered playing in the CFL a second violation, which is actually kind of funny.


With one violation, players are expected to submit to testing by the NFL. Browner didn’t do that while playing in the CFL, so the NFL counted that as a second violation when he returned. 

Brendan
Brendan

@thehelmet I wouldn't say "great." He's an above-average player, but benefit a lot from the team he was on, more than any of the other DB's, imo. 

Brendan
Brendan

@Disgruntled Jets Fan We did tell him to stop because it became obvious after doing it every day for a week that it was just a troll. And people were coming in, seeing those comments and reacting to them like they were real. 


He was doing it weeks before the trade happened, which was obnoxious. 

a57se
a57se

@Brendan @Bent 

The funniest part of that whole thing was the people arguing with Why Me that the deal wasn't going to happen like they knew for sure...... :)

Brendan
Brendan

@Bent YES. Thank you, that would've bothered me all day. 

greggreen
greggreen

@Brendan @Bent  I just want howard to resign, verner to sign and ...i guess golden tate or sanders. 

Bent
Bent moderator

@williamg1 @Brendan @Bent  


Okay, well Bent can CATEGORICALLY state that this is 100% not true.

williamg1
williamg1

@Brendan @Bent  IncarceratedBob has reported that the Jets and Howard have agreed to a deal in principle. 

Bent
Bent moderator

@Brendan @Disgruntled Jets Fan  I used it in a headline (about Holmes) the other week and thought back to that.  Whose catchphrase was that again?

Brendan
Brendan

@Disgruntled Jets Fan Haha, I was wondering if people would remember that. I still don't use that word in conversation because of this blog.