Link: What can we ascertain from Geno’s strong finish?

Chase Stuart, one of the blogosphere’s more thoughtful analysts, writes about Geno Smith at his blog, Football Perspective. By comparing Smith’s strong finish to the season with other rookies that finished well, he concludes that there are some positive signs that there could be good things to come.

However, that comes with a caveat:

For Smith, the way quarterbacks like Foles, Manning, Bledsoe, Garcia, and Palmer finished their rookie years is a promising sign; however, I admit to still being a bit skeptical. In Smith’s case, his “early season” numbers are dragged down by a horrible November, not necessarily by a bad start to the season. Smith didn’t show steady progress throughout the year, he was just inconsistent and finished well; that would lend more credibility to the “splits happen” theory than Smith “figuring out the game as the season moved on.”

He does, however, concede that Smith’s chances of developing will be helped by the Jets having a healthy and upgrading receiving corps in 2014 and beyond.

Either way, it’s a fascinating study that you should go and read in full.

Bent, TheJetsBlog.com

In the comments section yesterday, we had an interesting discussion about whether Smith’s last four games were better than any four game stretch Mark Sanchez had ever put up. While Sanchez has several three game stretches that far outstrip what Smith did in those last four games, he seemed to fall short of sustaining that level of play for four games in a row. However, we reached a consensus that the four games from week two to week five in 2010 (four wins including all three division opponents, three straight games with a rating over 100) trumps Geno’s 2013 finish.

The Jets will be hoping that Smith can build on his good finish. That’s assuming, of course, that they’re planning to move forward with him as a starter.





101 comments
Jeff E. Guy
Jeff E. Guy

Bridgewater, Bortles or Manziel. I have a hunch one or more of them will be available when the Jets pick. Do you grab one? I think you do. The way the rookie salary cap works, I think you draft a QB every year until you definitely have the Franchise. 

Pat d
Pat d

Better weapons will help any QB. That is what happened to Sanchez. Depending on how the draft goes the Jets should get a good value receiver at 18.

Juan Montalvo
Juan Montalvo

You can not compare Geno to Sanchez. Sanchez was a #1 pick,he was loved,and coddled,and surrounded with a veteran Offensive team. Geno on the other hand,was a 2 rounder that nobody but Idzik wanted. Geno had to deal with an owner looking for news and loving Rex. A GM brought in to clean up a mess. amd Rex's job in Geno's hands. We all know that the key to success in sports is the level of "Focus" that a player can maintain while pressure is all around him. Geno wasn't going through this in,KC,or Tampa. No he had to swim with the Sharks while trying to do his job of saving a starving franchise. Stop with the #'s. they don't tell the whole story. Give Geno the players,and the support of the whole franchise and then maybe we can compare #'s.

SackDance99
SackDance99

I think what's missing from Stuart's analysis is that the Saints win and, then, the bye, made Rex believe that the old "ground and pound" could take the Jets to the playoffs.  So, starting after the bye up in Buffalo, he pulled the reins back and set back Geno's development.  The ground and pound is hard on a QB because it puts him into more "must pass" situations and the defense knows it.  Combine that with the Jets poor receiving options and you have a perfect storm for a rookie QB.

When Geno had under 25 pass attempts, he was 1-3 (coinciding with his November swoon).  No WCO worth its salt allows the QB under 25 passes.  Yes, Geno struggled and may have still struggled executing the regular WCO, but his late season surge coincided with a return to confidence in him to run the WCO.  Rex admitted he made a mistake in pulling back.  So, maybe Geno's promising end might be more significant because it showed better command of MM's offense and, more importantly, field awareness when executing the WCO (making his running more effective).

williamg1
williamg1

Steiny: Jets are definitely high on Jimmy Garoppolo. Met with him at the Senior Bowl, Combine and now flew out to his Pro Day yesterday to see him.

juunit
juunit

My biggest issue is he only started playing well when the games became meaningless. He did seem to get over the play well against a good defense hump against Carolina, but I'm still pretty skeptical.

ijets
ijets

It was a good take on Geno comparison to Sanchez, with respect to consistency.  I think there are too many differences in a team's game situations to take into account for both quarterbacks to be compared to fairly.  I guess that can be said about any comparison - oh well.


I hope Geno and other quarterbacks that start camp this preseason will have...


a) to compete for the starting role.  I think the QB role should be won out every year.

b) a better talented set of WR's, TE's to compete for starting roles.


I chalked up last season as a rebuilding year for the offense - meaning, they only had to play at a  competent NFL for me to feel like there was progress for the season.  This season, however, the Jets offense should exceed the level of offense played last season for sure.


It would have been interesting to see how Sanchez/Geno situation would have play out last season.

Disgruntled Jets Fan
Disgruntled Jets Fan

Assuming some upgrades at the skill positions, what expectations do you guys have for Geno next year?

Disgruntled Jets Fan
Disgruntled Jets Fan

*shakes fist about Sapp resigning with the Texans*

 Nothing unexpected, just still peeved about losing him in the manner that we did.


idothis2
idothis2

i could be wrong, but it seems to me like most rookie/young QBs that go on to become successful have at least one dynamic receiving option i.e. aikman/irving, favre/sharpe etc...i guess elway would be an exception

williamg1
williamg1

More expert insight from ESPN.com:


"ESPN.com Jets reporter says New York needs to make the right moves in free agency with more than $30 million in cap space."


There you have it. 

gottem13x
gottem13x

Can't really make a decision on Geno until you get him some weapons. Kerley missed 4 games and still lead in reception, yards and was second in TD's. Have to get him some help.

idothis2
idothis2

I don't know if geno is the answer although i like him, but Rex has a tendency to overreact to the mistakes of a young/rookie qb and micromanage them to the point where they are afraid to make mistakes and they stop playing the game with the exuberance of youth. i remember in sanchez's rookie year in the 1st game of the year against the texans when sanchez dove head 1st and collided with the defender in the endzone that rex chided sanchez for that play and i never really saw sanchez play with that reckless abandon again. i saw a similar play last season with geno where he was running for the 1st down early in the season and shoulder bodied a defender near the sideline and rex chided him for that. i didnt see geno play with that reckless abandon again until late in the year and especially in the last game against the Phins where he ran like he was determined to keep his coach's job and looked like he was having fun when he absorbed punishment. rex has to let his young QBs breathe when they make mistakes which is why i like the fact that he/MM/idzik stuck with geno thru his midseason struggles

marcus81
marcus81

@Jeff E. Guy no, even top talent is not guaranteed, put better players around Geno and he'll be a better QB, if not draft a QB next year, too many QB needy teams, doubt they'll be available when Jets pick

marcus81
marcus81

@Pat d Sanchez was not a good decision  maker, he played well in the play offs, but during the regular season, he had to be carried by the defense and running game

SackDance99
SackDance99

@Pat d What helped Sanchez most was not having to pass all that much...that's why I never thought the "pieces" argument worked with Sanchez.  The more he was asked to do, the less he delivered.  Last year was so terrible from a receiver standpoint that it's hard to get a read on whether Geno would definitely improve, but just his record with Kerley, the only reliable receiver that he had who was also in training camp, shows that maybe better weapons would help him to improve.

frustjetfn
frustjetfn

@Juan Montalvo"Give Geno the players,and the support of the whole franchise and then maybe we can compare #'s."

Don't care squat about any number but wins.  And the flip-side of giving Geno the support of the whole franchise is you could be making the same Sanchez mistake twice. Let's learn from our mistake and give hm tools, but wholesales support before it's earned - no way! Let's keep our players working to get better to earn and retain jobs: awarding jobs is BS.

Bent
Bent moderator

@SackDance99  Wasn't he also < 25 passes primarily because he (a) kept throwing incompletions, thereby shortening drives and (b) kept getting benched?

Bytor
Bytor

@williamg1

Bytor - "Hello Verizon"

Verizon - "What did the Jets do this time?"

Bytor - "Drafted Jimmy Garappolo in the 2nd round."

Verizon - "Shall we send you a new remote?"

Bytor - "Yes, make it two. I'm not so confident the rest of this draft will go well."


......aaaaaand scene.


ps.-where's tsjc?

idothis2
idothis2

@Disgruntled Jets Fan 3,800 yds. 23 tds. 18 ints. 7.2 ypa. 59% cp

Bytor
Bytor

@williamg1  Bbbbbbut most of that will be chewed up by signing the rookies. What then?

bklyndude
bklyndude

@williamg1   "We don't agree with any of the moves the Jets might make".......ESPN

Brendan
Brendan

@williamg1  


Rich Cimini's keys to success:


"Don't fail."


That'll be $500. 

williamg1
williamg1

@gottem13x  Get him some weapons, but also some depth on the O-line. The best way to cripple Geno would be from an injury to Brick or Mangold. 

Brendan
Brendan

@idothis2  I agree with that bit about Rex. It happened this past year when Geno went into his slump. To me, QB's are like hitters in baseball. They won't get out of a slump if you take away their reps and force them to "work it out" in practice. The same way a hitter just needs to keep hacking to break out of a slump, a QB needs to keep throwing. So when Rex over-reacted and went conservative at the first sign of trouble, it just compounded the problems for Geno & the office. Then in the final month of the season he stopped doing that, let Geno play his game, and the team started winning. 



One thing they have to do more of: designed rollouts. Geno had one of the best QB ratings in the league at designed rollouts last year. Get that man on the move. 

williamg1
williamg1

@idothis2  I can't knock Rex for wanting to protect his QB. Remember, Mark also had to sit out a game because of a knee injury he got while scrambling. 

Pat d
Pat d

The Jets WRs the last 3 years have been bad.

Juan Montalvo
Juan Montalvo

@frustjetfn @Juan Montalvo  When given the support Sanchez did respond. The first two years we almost made it to the "Big Show". 3rd and 4th years we took away his support (OC,WR,TE, Offensive line),and look what happened. The QB job is like a Pitcher. They're the one who decide the games. Without "wholesale support" the QB can't "earn" his spot,and can't do his "job". 

Pat d
Pat d

If Carr is there at 18 I think the Jets should take him.

phily kay
phily kay

@Bent @SackDance99  yes, but watching them run for 1-2 yds on 1st & 2nd downs doesnt really allow for many easy throws on 3rd down, or change of pace. it was literally the same thing 80% of the series it seemed like, so yes the # of incompletions affects the # of attempts, but when those attempts are made in extremely predictable situations with long (by nfl standards) distances to go and a severe lack of receiving talent, especially on the outside, it gets easier to see why the month of november played out the way that it did

SackDance99
SackDance99

@Bent @SackDance99Chicken and egg.  He kept getting incompletions because of the position he was put in and, then, benched.  Point is, he was reined in, the Jets went run heavy, deviated from the WCO and Geno struggled even more than he did in the beginning of the season.

juunit
juunit

@Bent @SackDance99 

It's funny, but I actually think both Smith and Sanchez would've benefited if their roles had been reversed. Sanchez really needed to throw until he could find his rhythm while Smith with his dual threat ability would do well in an offense run like the Niners and Seahawks.  

Bytor
Bytor

@idothis2  Sounds about right. I'd add another 400 yards on the ground and take a leap that he cracks 60% cp.

idothis2
idothis2

@williamg1 @idothis2i am stunned that Gates is still on the roster. it seems like the velocity of the football coming in makes him fall down

gottem13x
gottem13x

Brick needs to restructure... He's not what he used to be.

idothis2
idothis2

@williamg1 @idothis2 i know it's a fine line wanting to protect against injury, but i think you gotta let them play free

Jeff E. Guy
Jeff E. Guy

@Pat d  Well, by NFL standards, they're still extraordinary people....

SackDance99
SackDance99

@Bent @SackDance99@frustjetfn@juunitI'd be interested in seeing McNabb's numbers from 2009...arguably MM's best season as Philly's OC.  The Eagle QB's averaged @ 35 passes per game, so it should be a good benchmark for Geno.

Bent
Bent moderator

@SackDance99 @Bent @frustjetfn @juunit  Yeah, I've definitely noticed that not just since the WCO but also under Schotty the Jets used to have higher ratings early in games presumably due to easy passes.

SackDance99
SackDance99

@Bent @SackDance99@frustjetfn@juunitI would figure that, though.  Isn't that a hallmark of the WCO?  The first couple of series are scripted and Geno, as a rookie, would likely perform better in the scripted portion that he practiced.  Once the D adjusts, it's a different story.  Plus, for Sanchez, as I said before, passing in the ground and pound is tough, but if it's successful, sometimes you don't have to pass more.  

The 3rd 10 for Sanchez..from 20-30 is very telling...that's the money 10.  If you fail in those passes, the last 10 is likely in garbage time passing against prevent defenses that allow the QB to pad.

Bent
Bent moderator

@SackDance99 @frustjetfn @juunit @Bent  


Surprisingly, Geno's rating is best in his first 10 passes of the game.


First 10- 74.2 

Next 10 - 60.1

Next 10 - 65.4

Next 10 - 63.1


Sanchez in 2012:


First 10 - 60.4

Next 10 - 67.8

Next 10 - 48.5

Next 10 - 108.1


In 2009 and 2010, that trend was definitely there as his rating reduced the more he played.  In 2011 there was an uptick from 31-40 again.


Was hoping to prove your point, but didn't quite manage to.

SackDance99
SackDance99

@frustjetfn @juunit@Bent@SackDance99 Sanchez was 14-2 when passing under 25 times and 6-0 his rookie year.  Geno was 1-3 passing under 25 times in his rookie year.  It would seem that Geno improves the more he passes, while Sanchez significantly declines.

frustjetfn
frustjetfn

@juunit @Bent@SackDance99But Geno had to be taught when to run vs dropping back 10-20 yards before being sacked for a huge loss. Fans tend to forget that, but it happened. Now let's hope he retained the lessons and progresses from there. Remember, Sanchez' problem was mental toughness under pressure. He kept making the same mistakes ad infinitum.

harold
harold

I see him in the Chatzy room, but that is about it. 

I should added that little nugget.

harold
harold

I haven't seen a post from him in a while.

harold
harold

No need to re-do his contract.  He already has big cap hits and a restructure would only make him harder to cut if you wanted to move on in a couple years.

idothis2
idothis2

@williamg1 @Brendan@idothis2 i think if it were solely up to Marty, he wouldve been comfortable with letting Geno throw to learn

williamg1
williamg1

@Brendan @williamg1  Exactly. I also think its telling that his improvement also coincided with the improvement of Winter and Milliner. Seems all the rooks came on strong at the end (except BossHogg who was sick as hell from the beginning. -- which tells you just how much of a freak he is.). 

Brendan
Brendan

@williamg1 Yeah, struggles have to be expected, with any rookie. Russell Wilson looked "meh" the first 8 games his rookie year, then the light went on. Maybe the light went on 4 games later than it did for Wilson. Maybe it was an anomaly. But what we have to go on is a rookie QB on who ended on the rise. I tend to think that's more indicative of where he's headed than the slump he broke out of once the team stopped trying to turn this squad into the '09 team. 

williamg1
williamg1

@Brendan @williamg1  Looking back, I just think of what Geno had to deal with leading up to the draft, during the draft, and then after the draft. All while learning the QB position in a totally different way than he had been trained, and playing with lackluster weapons. 


To me, I can't see how anyone could possibly expect him to thrive early in the season. I was fully-expecting him to shut down the final four games but, instead, he showed some improvement (and even fire -- which I think he was lacking). 

Brendan
Brendan

@williamg1 I'd have to think so. That was a staple in Philly while Marty was there.